Posted on 01/29/2008 11:55:19 AM PST by Sideshow Bob
There have been more than a few recent articles and editorials attempting to affix blame for the demise of the Republican Party. Peggy Noonan blames President Bush. Rush Limbaugh believes a McCain nomination will kill the party. However, even in a worse case scenario, the Republican Party will probably stagger along for several years much like the last decade of the Whigs. Conservative Republicans should probably be more concerned about the impending demise of the conservative movement within the party. Some individuals can be blamed more than others, but this folly has many fathers. The latest blow to conservatives has come from within – thanks to Dr. James Dobson and other egotistical evangelicals. Political doomsayers may be correct and it is likely too late to save the conservative movement in 2008. Conservatives can correct their path to destruction for 2010 and beyond, but only if they look back at recent history, recognize the actions and actors that have brought the party and movement to this point, and to learn from a long series of missteps and mistakes.
Ronald Reagan built a winning coalition of conservatives, independents and establishment moderate Republicans in 1980. A coalition of social, economic and security conservatives had come together to form a plurality within the GOP and wrest leadership of the party from the establishment, moderate GOP. The Iran-Contra scandal (Mistake #1) weakened the coalition and the moderate wing of the party regained control of the GOP (Mistake #2), which led to the election of President George H.W. Bush (Mistake #3).
While the elder Bush had adopted – albeit reluctantly – many conservative ideals, he and the moderate GOP leaders advocated a “kinder, gentler” approach (Mistake #4). Conservatives might have been content to take a back seat to moderate GOP leadership, but they read Bush’s lips and their support and enthusiasm for the Republican Party evaporated after the Bush tax increase (Mistake #5). In 1992 some conservatives were taken in by Ross Perot and his anti-establishment, anti-Washington message (Mistake #6). Others just stayed home (Mistake #7) and helped Democrats elect the Dope from Hope, Bill Clinton, with just 43% of the popular vote (Mistake #8).
The only positive to come out of 1992 was that it helped create an opening for an obscure, but brilliant Congressman from Georgia to lead conservatives to regain control of the Republican Party. Newt Gingrich reformed the three-legged conservative coalition and took an upstart innovative approach of leading the GOP from the House with a 1994 national congressional campaign platform – the Contract with America.
It is important to note that prior to the ’94 elections, Senate Minority Leader Bob Dole and other establishment, moderate GOP leaders scoffed at and were dismissive of Gingrich and the Contract. Dole and Senate moderates rode the Contract’s election coattails, but made it plain that the GOP Senate did NOT sign on to the program, was not obligated to it, reluctantly followed Gingrich's lead, and worked to water down each and every one of the Contract's provisions (Mistake #9).
By January 1996, Dole was the presumptive Republican presidential nominee (Mistake #10). Dole sought to convince Speaker Gingrich to fold up the federal government shutdown stalemate with President Clinton and allow Dole to lead the GOP via his presidential campaign.
Dole gave Gingrich the choice of single-handedly continuing the shutdown and fight with Clinton and the media with Candidate Dole seeking a different path from the House GOP or deferring to Dole's presidential campaign and resuming the conservative battle together with Gingrich’s friend Trent Lott to keep President Dole honest after the ’96 elections. Gingrich made the wrong choice (Mistake #11). Gingrich probably should have run for President himself in 1996 (Mistake #12).
We all remember what happened. By caving in and compromising on the shutdown, the conservative House leadership lost some of their ability to control their more moderate members (Mistake #13). Bob Dole lost (Mistake #14). Trent Lott built his own voice separate from the House (Mistake #15). And with no help from Lott & the GOP Senate and a Clinton veto looming on all conservative issues, Gingrich, Armey & DeLay focused too much of their efforts on the growing Clinton scandals (Mistake #16).
Gingrich was able to maintain order within the House even during the Clinton impeachment. But after the Senate RINOs failed to do their duty and convict Clinton (Mistake #17), the House moderates began feeling their oats (Mistake #18).
Then, the impact of the missing FBI files took effect. Allegations of marital affairs Gingrich and Hyde took their toll (Mistake #19). Seeing his conservative House coalition slowly diminish and Lott's desire to set on a different path, Gingrich stepped down as Speaker (Mistake #20). Then his presumed successor, Bob Livingston from Louisiana, was also taken out by a marital affair (Mistake #21).
House Moderates became emboldened and championed the lackluster Dennis Hastert as Speaker to muzzle Armey & DeLay and appear less confrontational (Mistake #22). This effort also helped to clear the agenda of party leadership for the 2000 GOP presidential candidates (Mistake #23). And in 2000, conservatives settled for the "compassionate conservatism" of George W. Bush (Mistake #24). Many conservatives stayed home, nearly costing Bush the presidency and actually losing GOP control of the Senate in 2000 (Mistake #25).
To be fair, conservatives should thank God everyday for W's leadership in dealing with 9-11. But Bush also squandered the opportunity to push the party and country to the right following that horrible event (Mistake #26). The GOP regained control of the Senate in 2002, but based solely on the country’s fears of Democrats’ inability to deal with national security concerns and not on conservative social and economic principles. Meanwhile, the House drifted further to the center (Mistake #27).
Conservative fears of repeating Florida 2000 helped Bush win reelection in 2004, despite the party's overall drift to the center. By now, any conservative elements in the House and Senate were in complete retreat. The moderates ruled the roost in both houses. RINO defections on the Iraq war (Mistake #28), wasteful earmarks (Mistake #29) and ethics scandals (Mistake #29) were now front and center for the GOP. The only conservative victories of 2005-06 were the confirmations of Roberts and Alito to the Supreme Court. And it took a battle to defeat Bush on his nomination of Harriet Miers to do it.
By Fall 2006 conservatives had become utterly disheartened. Attempts to make the Bush tax cuts permanent stalled (Mistake #30), the continued treachery of Arlen Spector, John McCain, Lindsey Graham and the Gang of 14 (Mistake #31), increased dissatisfaction with George Bush and the Miers nomination debacle all caused conservatives to stay home in November 2006 (Mistake #32). And the GOP lost both the House and Senate.
Occasionally, the conservative movement can still rise up. The reaction to the Amnesty bill was encouraging. But other than that, conservatives have again been wandering in the wilderness. GOP moderates and RINO's have been resistant to allowing a conservative to assume leadership in Congress. And any potential conservative congressional leader has held back (Mistake #33), in part due to the extremely early start of the 2008 presidential race (Mistake #34).
And what did conservatives get for 2008 GOP candidates? Were there any Reagan conservatives who possessed all three legs of the coalition stool - strong national defense, social conservatism, economic conservatism?
Nope.
Instead, we got Rudy Giuliani. An autocrat who has little affection for social conservatives, but pledged to nominate strict construction judges. Whoopee!
Instead, we got John McCain. An angry RINO maverick who enjoys flouting social and economic conservatives AND even the GOP establishment to gain favor and positive reviews from the liberal media.
Instead, we got Mitt Romney, an uber-wealthy GOP establishment moderate. At least Romney panders to social and economic conservatives with recently discovered flip-flopped positions on issues of importance to those two factions.
Instead, we got Mike Huckabee – the Dope from Hope, part II. While he is just as slick and manipulative as Bill Clinton, Huckabee is nowhere near as smart.
Instead, we got Ron Paul, a true blue, libertarian nutbag. Paul has a few economic bona fides that have pulled away a few non-nut job libertarians. But I'm sorry, Dr. Paul is a kook.
Instead, we got the Obscure Four - Tom Tancredo, Alan Keyes, Tommy Thompson & Duncan Hunter. Tancredo & Keyes are single issue candidates. Tommy & Dunc are well-rounded politicians (especially Hunter), but they lacked the ability to have broad nationwide appeal.
Seeing this morass of blech, Fred Thompson entered the fray expecting to be the savior of the Republican Party and the conservative movement. Fred should have been that candidate.
Unfortunately, Dr. James Dobson and a few evangelical leaders decided to cut off their nose to spite their face (Mistake #35). You see, Fred's not a Bible thumper. Neither was Ronald Reagan. And like Reagan, Fred is a bona fide, all-around, federalist conservative. That wasn’t good enough for Dobson. And when Fred refused to kiss Dobson's ring of evangelical purity, Dobson went shopping for a candidate he thought he could control.
Flim Flam Huckabee seized on that opportunity. Huckabee played Dobson into thinking that Dobson could be a GOP kingmaker (Mistake #36). A handful of evangelical leaders blindly pushed Huckabee as a viable conservative (Mistake #37). The media, who knows a GOP loser when they see one, helped fan the flames of Huckabee's support. For a time, the scheme worked. Huckabee won Iowa (Mistake #38), but eventually the truth of Huckabee's Christian Socialism became evident to most conservatives.
But the damage had been done. Social conservatives were now spilt. Some had been taken in by Huckabee's class warfare (Mistake #39). Some had been taken in by the media's false depiction of Fred as a lazy campaigner (Mistake #40) and settled for Romney, Rudy or, worse, McCain (Mistake #41).
Added into this deceptive mix was the ability of independents and Democrats to participate in and distort the Iowa, New Hampshire & South Carolina Republican primaries (Mistake #42). Media darling McCain was back! McCain – the new Comeback Kid – was ready to lead....the GOP down to defeat. Meanwhile, Fred's race and the ability for the GOP to unify behind a Reaganesque conservative died (Mistake #43).
At best, the GOP could still end up with a George W. Bush-lite nominee like Mitt Romney. He will at least pretend to care about conservative ideals from his Country Club wing of the party.
At worst, the GOP could end up with John McCain. McCain, the perennial thorn in the GOP's side who was once touted as a possible VP running mate for John Kerry!
Who knows? It’s still remotely possible that none of the moderates and RINO’s still in the presidential race will win a majority of the primary delegates. Maybe a conservative nominee could still rise up in a brokered GOP convention. Maybe a conservative national congressional campaign like the Contract with America could still arise in time for the 2008 elections. But really, that’s a fantasy.
The reality is that conservatives will have to wait until 2010 or 2012 to reassert itself as the true and legitimate leaders of the Republican Party. The reality is that conservatives have allowed numerous people to make numerous mistakes which have led the movement to this precarious point. The reality is that conservatives and the GOP are now left with this Dobson's Choice of Romney or McCain. Pass the nose clips and prepare for the worst.
Wow what a twist! The other candidates were talking about a disaster relief fund, and Huckaby said rather than a handout, he would rather put the funds to work building road infrastructure. And from the context of the speech, I take it the road he wanted to add lanes to, are badly congested.
I don’t believe you have ever listened to James Dobson. He is not egotistical in my book, and I would like some proof to back up this smear of yours. I think egotistical applies to you if you wrote this. Dobson is concerned about the family and the soul of America.
McCain ain’t gonna make it...
Tick Tick Tick...
KABOOM!
Rudy is all dressed up with no where to go.
How the bloody hell did it get down to this.
No wonder I am so cynical, yet hopeful down the road...
I need a drink...
Better make it a double while I can afford it.
Haley buddy, I am counting on you....
no, they were talking about tax cuts. watch the debate again
If you want to "wrest leadership" from anybody else, you have to have a candidate, otherwise, it just won't stick.
Talk of mistakes and the notion that Iran-Contra cost Reagan his coalition or conservatives their control of the party is mistaken.
There just wasn't a Reagan in the race in 1988, so conservatives, Republicans, and Americans made do with G.W.H. Bush.
It was like that in 2000 as well, and it's the same way today.
There just isn't anyone as conservative as Reagan with the same appeal that Reagan has in the race.
Gingrich probably should have run for President himself in 1996 (Mistake #12).
If he had run that would also have been Mistake #12.
And what did conservatives get for 2008 GOP candidates? Were there any Reagan conservatives who possessed all three legs of the coalition stool - strong national defense, social conservatism, economic conservatism?
Clearly not, but could there have been?
Christianity has a social side that can't be denied forever, so naturally Evangelical social conservatives and laissez-faire economic conservatives wouldn't always be in the same boat.
A coalition involves fudging things as well. For a long time it meant making noises that appealed to social conservatives without making real concessions to them. Eventually either they'd get their way on things or they wouldn't and somebody would be alienated.
"Economic conservatism" mixed free marketeering and low taxes with some protectionist gestures and social programs to win over those who weren't converted. At some point there were bound to be conflicts about that, and about deficits as well.
It's also harder to campaign on a strong national defense when we're involved in an unpopular war.
at least if the GOP is going to lose anyway, better to lose with mccain?
Only problem with your theory is that Dobson didn’t endorse Huckabee or anyone else. The last part of your post is fantasy. Thompson lost because he was lazy, ran in only one state, and when the going got tough . . . he gave up and left conservatives in the lurch. Substitute “trusting Fred Thompson and supporting only Thompson instead of promoting another conservative into the race” as a mistake for the last few paragraphs and I think it makes as much sense as your historical analysis (which is excellent and not just guessing).
Um, except for that little issue that McCain is not AS liberal (or is MORE conservative) than Hillary. Liberal-Conservative is better thought of as a continuum, not an either/or. I’d rather have Thompson than McCain; I’d rather have McCain than Hillary; I’d rather have Hillary than Michael Moore; I’d rather have Michael Moore than Joseph Stalin.
“Sometime after mid-January ‘09, if the Fairness Doctrine is fully implemented and illegal immigrants are also allowed to vote in all future U.S. elections, then how is both the Republican Party and all of U.S. conservatism not completely destroyed forever”
Conservatism (obviously) does not reside in a political party. It resides in the hearts of men, and it cannot be squelched.
Our country was founded on Christian and Conservative ideals, by men who would not accept the government’s status quo. We will carve out a place again, if necessary.
Weren’t they talking about the “tax rebate” (which is a far cry from a tax cut)?
“Then you have evidence that Dobson is not a true evangelical Christian?”
That’s not what I said, now is it?
But, no, I don’t like Dobson. He’s a smary, holier-than-thou, prima donna who demands that politicians pay respects.
Thompson blew Dobson off as an ass (a correct assessment, IMHO), and, alas Dobson responded by saying he doubted Thompson was a Christian, a very unique theological perspecive.
...if the republicans expect the evangelicals to show up and vote and shut up (which I do not think you are saying), then it will be disaster for all conservatives (a lot of social conservatives will stay home). Dobson in my opinion went too far, (basically saying, if not my way, I withhold my endorsement (the same thing Rush is threatening)); but none of these candidates except Hunter are totally conservative. I will vote for any pubbie at this point because I do not want one more liberal justice. We can survive a McCain or Huckabee presidency...
***
Just to note, Fred repudiated his former support for McCain-Feingold from Day 1 of his presidential campaign - if not earlier. It represented a deviation from his core federalist principles.
No, conservatives and/or the GOP shouldn't take evangelicals for granted. But I don't think that it is too much to expect evangelical leaders to understand the political process and to learn to form winning conservative coalitions.
Dobson should have agreed with Thompson on all issues except:
1) Dobson's contention that Fred was not a "true" Christian, and
2) Dobson's belief that fealty to the Human Life Amendment is the ONLY way to attack Roe v. Wade.
Issue 1 made Dobson a religious bigot. Issue 2 is a losing political fight right now in this country.
As for McCain or Huckabee, I think both would be disasters for the country. A McCain nomination will forever split the Rpublican Party. And a Huckabee nomination would forever brand conservatism with a Theocracy scarlet T among non-evangelicals while Huckabee actually set the country on A European Social Democrat agenda. Further, on judicial appointments, I would be skeptical of a President McCain's appointments and doubtful that a President Huckabee's first choices (or second or third) would ever be confirmed.
I agree with your rankings . . . including the shocking fact for Freepers that Huckabee is the most conservative candidate still in the race. Except . . . I think Obama is just as liberal as Hillary.
bump for later study.
"MR. RUSSERT: You all have described yourself as tax cutters, and yet in your records there are shortcomings on that issue.
Governor Huckabee, are you comfortable with the fact that Governor Romney raised fees a quarter of a million dollars as governor of Massachusetts? Do you trust him as a tax cutter?
MR. HUCKABEE: You know, it's going to be really more do the voters trust him, and do they trust me. I know this: I balanced a budget every year I was governor. I left a surplus of $850 million coming up from a deficit of $200 million. I know I signed the first- ever broad-based tax cuts. And I know that I made tax cuts that really impacted families by eliminating the marriage penalty, doubling the child care tax credit, raising the income level at which people paid their income tax.
But let me speak to the really heart of what I think a lot of Americans are concerned about with the economy. And frankly, in talking about the stimulus package, one of the concerns that I have is that we'll probably end up borrowing this $150 billion from the Chinese. And when we get those rebate checks, most people are going to go out and buy stuff that's been imported from China. I have to wonder whose economy is going to be stimulated the most by the package.
And I'm grateful that something is being done. I think we all could at least acknowledge that it's good to see Congress working with the president to do something.
But if we're going to spend $150 billion, I'd like to suggest that maybe we add two lanes of highway from Bangor all the way to Miami on I-95. A third of the United States population lives within 100 miles of that.
This nation's infrastructure is falling apart. And if we built those lanes of highways -- with American labor, American steel, American concrete -- I believe it would do more to stimulate the economy.
And the reason I say that is because when we were going through a recession in my state, we were in the middle of a billion-dollar highway construction program that brought about 40,000 jobs and brought a billion dollars of capital into the economy. That's a long- term stimulus package that I think would have more impact on the American long-term future. And it would keep social capital from being wasted, fuel wasted. A lot of people in Florida sit around in traffic every day, never getting to their kids' dance recitals or soccer games because they're stuck in traffic, and we've done nothing about it.
If I had to make a call I’d at least want Mitt incase we won.
I was really reading this and trying to believe... until ya got to the “bed time story telling land of make believe”... ala Fred Thompson.
All you Fred Heads pretty much get the fact that Romney IS Giuliani and that he’s just lying about it...
But so is Fred.
Fred IS McCain... and the problem isn’t that others aka Dobson didn’t like Fred or as the other post says Fred was “too” conservative.
No... outside of the deluded here, NO ONE LIKED FRED!
Fred got at BEST 3rd place and sometimes 6th out of 7 with only Duncan Hunter behind him.
Wacky Ron Paul beat Fred in more than a couple states and he’s still IN.
Sorry guys and gals... Fred vanished because he WAS NOT FOR REAL.
And the only difference between us... you and me.... is I KNOW it to be true... and yer still in denial.
But everything else in this article is right... and we better be HOPING we Nominate McCain,....
Why?
Cause then those RINO PUKES LOSE AND GET BLAMED !!
If we Nominate Huck, the Evangelicals get blamed...
If we Nominate Romney, then Anyone who has Money can flip flop and BUY the election...
Nope... McCain is our only toxin potent enough to KILL the GOP quickly enough to RESUSCITATE it.
Anyone.... ANYONE else... is slow poison.
Christianity has a social side that can’t be denied forever, so naturally Evangelical social conservatives and laissez-faire economic conservatives wouldn’t always be in the same boat.
-
I don’t think this must be the case. Though obviously I can’t speak for evangelicals or christians...I consider myself to be a very strong social conservative who understands you can’t change behavior by force. Education is at the core of my conservative approach.
see my post and a response:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1960918/posts?page=33#27
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1960918/posts?page=33#33
Very good article.
I agree that the Ayatollah Dobson is most to blame.
Fred made some tactical mistakes ( skipping the Ames straw poll & the New Hampshire debate ), but I don’t think they were the real reason he and we lost.
Dobson lost all of my considerable respect for him at that point. Got a little whiff of power with Robertson going off the reservation and Falwell departed. And he thought he was going to be the show. Just powerful enough to be deadly.
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