[Momaw Nadon]

Intrade.com is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things such as the results of elections.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, the Republican Presidential candidate would receive 211 Electoral Votes and the Democratic Presidential candidate would receive 327 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of the Republican Presidential candidate winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then the Republican Presidential candidate should get 241.05 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Momaw Nadon]

[Non-Sequitur]

If this is correct then there are only 5 states in play: Colorado, Missouri, Virginia, Florida, and Nevada.

[Momaw Nadon]

If you want on (or off) of the weekly InTrade Projected Presidential Electoral Vote ping list, please let me know via FREEPmail.

[DBCJR]

Until there are definite personalities running against each other, with campaign structures & strategies, such a projection is beyond abstract.

[Radix]

Can I make $$$$ on this information somehow?

[Momaw Nadon]

Missouri is at 50.0% today.

The bid price is 45.0 and the ask price is 54.9. These average to 49.95.

Thus, the tie goes to the Democratic Presidential candidate.

[TomGuy]

Arkansas may be closer to Blue than Red.

[Momaw Nadon]

For this thread I posted a .gif of a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet.

In 2004 I was able to post the info as HTML code, but I seem to have forgotten how to do so since then.

If anyone can help with posting Excel 2007 data as correctly formatted HTML, I would appreciate the advice.

[verklaring]

Thank you

What this means, if correct, is that how I vote makes no difference.

I have only one way of effecting the outcome the election, my wallet.

Living in a socialist Blue state I guessed this already.

[GMMC0987]

One of the most formidable entities in politics is the UN-NAMED DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE.

As soon as the candidate is named things start to go downhill.

[JWinNC]

Wow... talk about a pig in a poke!

[BlueNgold]

Ohio at 28&?
Please...
Sigh, must I state again my disdain for intrade and their marauding bunch of gambl-holics who somehow think this has any bearing at all on actual political issues?

[fhayek]

This is just the base line. The opening position. We have ten months to turn this map red. I refuse to be pessimistic. There will be no President Obama.

[gracesdad]

I just don’t see how this means anything at this point.

[Recovering_Democrat]

Florida will not go Democrat, if we can keep the fraud down. Florida’s population is becoming more and more Republican.