If this is correct then there are only 5 states in play: Colorado, Missouri, Virginia, Florida, and Nevada.
As much as I’ve argued otherwise in the past, with Tim Kaine and Doug Wilder endorsing Obama, and with a very popular Mark Warner on the ticket for Senate...if Obama is the nominee, we will indeed have a difficult time holding Virginia in the GOP column. For the first time since 1964.
Sadly, those are all traditionally red states. Also listed as a flip and not competitive is Ohio, another traditionally red state. If these perceptions are accurate, Republicans are in a world of hurt this fall. Personally, I'm not so pessimistic.