While we’re waiting for the results to start coming, I thought I’d post my final predictions and invite others to do the same.
Here are mine for the GOP:
1. Mitt Romney
2. Fred Thompson
3. Mike Huckabee
4. Ron Paul
5. Rudy Giuliani
6. John McCain
7. Alan Keyes
8. Duncan Hunter
And the Donks:
1. John Edwards
2. Barack Obama
3. Hillary Clinton
4. Bill Richardson
5. Chris Dodd
6. Joe Biden
7. Dennis Kucinich
8. Mike Gravel
My predictions
GOP:
1. Romney
2. Huckabee
3. Thompson
Dem:
1. Obama
2. Clinton
3. Edwards
I think the real Huckaboom is only beginning, tonight.
My, you are willing to go out on a limb....and I like it.
GOP:
1. Mitt Romney
2. Mike Huckabee
3. Ron Paul
4. John McCain
5. Fred Thompson
Dummies:
1. John Edwards
2. Barack Obama
3. Hillary Clinton
4. Joe Biden
5. Chris Dodd
I hope you’re right about your Republican top 3. I believe McCain will come in ahead of Giuliani, but otherwise, I’d agree with your prediction.
The ‘Pubbies
1. Mike Huckabee - 24%
2. Mitt Romney - 22%
3. Fred Thompson - 18%
4. John McCain - 12%
5. Ron Paul <8%
6. Rudy Giuliani - etc...
7. Alan Keyes
8. Duncan Hunter
And the Donks:
1. John Edwards - 34%
2. Barack Obama - 30%
3. Hillary Clinton - 24%
4. Bill Richardson - <5%
5. Chris Dodd - etc...
6. Joe Biden
7. Dennis Kucinich
8. Mike Gravel
1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. Thompson
4. McCain (think he and Thompson will be within a point or two of each other)
Dems
1. Obama
2. Edwards
3. Clinton
4. Kucinich (never discount the crazies).
1. Fred Thompson
2. Mike Huckabee
3. Duncan Hunter
4. John McCain
5. Satan’s little helper
6. Satan Hisself
7. Ron Paul
8. Alan Keyes
Romney 1st with Huckabee close behind him at 2nd. Thompson will take a respectable 3rd.
Edwards and Obama a virtual tie with Clinton at least 10% behind them.
Romney 28%
Huckabee 25%
Thompson 17%
McCain 14%
Paul 9%
Giuliani 5%
Hunter 1%
Keyes 1%
Ambitious, but I see Fred having a very strong third place, much stronger than predicted, but not quite second place. Now if he does finish second, it will be a major change in momentum.
Republicans
1. Huckster
2. Romney
3. Fred (with a bullet - closer to Romney than McCain and the winner of tonight’s “Better than Expected” award)
4. McCain
5. Ronpaul
6. Rudy
Dems
1. Obama
2. Breck Girl
3. Cankles (...It will be me...Cackle, Cackle)
4. Richardson
Romney
Huckabee
McCain
Edwards
Obama
Clinton
So we shall see.
Romney 26%
Thompson 22%
Huckabee 22%
McCain 16%
Paul 8%
Giuliani 5%
Hunter 1%
Democrats:
I don’t care. Let them sort out their own mess and we’ll take care of the last loser standing next November.
Thompson might still clearly beat Huckabee tonight. It depends on how many of Huckabee’s people are still strongly motivated. While Mike’s on his way down, he’s not close to hitting the bottom of his support yet. I do think some of his supporters who have had time to become disillusioned, may just decide to do something else tonight when the time comes to go to caucus.
The same will be true for some of Romney’s support though I think Romney will still pull off a win. My reasoning is that the vast amount of money he has spent does, at least, buy an organization that will move heaven and earth to get out supporters. That is key in Iowa. This will not necessarily be enough to carry him through the rest of the states, however. Mitt has significant negatives which will ultimately prove difficult to overcome.
Paul will show better than he has shown in the Iowa polls. His lack of overall support in numbers will be mitigated by a higher level of participation by his followers.
Rudy is not expecting much and I don't think he'll get much.
McCain is benefiting from a media inspired surge. Some of the support that has slipped away from Huckabee and Romney has not found a good home yet and has floated to McCain. I think he'll finish in the mid teens. If we had another week, I think Fred would take at least another 4 or 5 percent of the McCain vote.
Fred should make a good showing because his supporters really like him and feel a connection to him. Most seem to be excited to have the chance to vote FOR him and not just against someone else. He is a solid conservative and is a strong individual who engenders trust. He's spent a significant amount of time in Iowa in the last few weeks an he's had the chance to win hearts and minds through bypassing national media filters. I think his supporters are motivated to turn out for him and he will benefit in the final standings.
We'll know very soon. Go Fred!
Predicting...
1 Edwards
2 Clinton (who will claim irregularities and demand recount)
3 Obama
1 Romney
2 Huckabee
3 McCain
This gives me no joy. Could be wrong. Hope so!
I believe Hill be at least 2nd place and possibly 1st. The COMEBACK KID! The fox is in! OOps...fix.
Actually, the GOP list is close with exception that John McCain is polling higher than ron paul is.
McCain is IIRC 11% and paul is at best 9%
1.Mike Huckabee
2. Mitt Romney
3.Fred Thompson
4.John McCain
5. Ron Paul
6. Rudy Giuliani
7. Duncan Hunter
8. Alan Keyes
Democrats:
1. Barack Obama
2. Hillary Clinton
3.John Edwards
4. Bill Richardson
5. Joe Biden
6. Chris Dodd
7.Dennis Kucinich
8. Mike Gavel? Is he still in the caucas?
vaudine
Thanks for posting the thread! I hope you are right about FDT. Russert predicts FDT to drop out and endorse JOHN McCAIN! I hope he is dead wrong.
I’ll just put my top three from each side
GOP:
1. Mike Huckabee- simply because too many iowa voters have no clue
2. Mitt Romney- organization
3. Fred Thompson- the only real conservative
Dims:
1. Barak Bin laden- same reason as huckabee’s success
2. John Edwards- same reason as barak bin laden
3. Hillary- this is bad for her tonight