Iowa Caucuses - Results Live Thread

January 3, 2008 | xjcsa

[xjcsa]

I thought the time was right to start up a live thread for results and comments about tonight, so here we are!

[G8 Diplomat]

USSR Hillary

[Squidpup]

I’ll give ya a “chortle”

[Petronski]

ROMNEY SAYS DROPPING OUT IF HE DOESN’T WIN IOWA!!!!

That's what I heard!

[toomanygrasshoppers]

I agree that we can’t count Hillary out yet. She has a strong base and can get them out to caucus. The problem with her, however, is that she does not inspire those not already in her camp. Her support is limited to what she has in the can right now. Turn out is going to be very important in this election. Overall low turnout will be good for Hillary b/c her base will be at the polls come *ell or high water.

[Petronski]

ROMNEY SAYS DROPPING OUT IF HE DOESN’T WIN IOWA!!!!

That's what I heard!

[Codename - Ron Benjamin]

Ahem, the USSR Hillary.

[Milwaukee_Guy]

Live Internet non-MSM coverage.

These links are new to me, so no endorsement is intended,

http://theuptake.org/?page_id=419

http://www.politicallunch.com/

http://www.c-span.org/

[Petronski]

Whoops. Double post.

[Right_in_Virginia]

Just saving my place...;-)

[GeorgiaDawg]

Any chance Fred surprises folks tonight and pulls out a 2nd place finish? Just wondering what happens if the Romney and Huckabee folks start splitting each of their camps.

[rurgan]

I like those predictions, funny too.

[Badeye]

‘Terry McAuliffe is on Fox News right now praising Mike Huckabee.
Huckabee is his candidate he wants to run against in November.’

Single best reason for those on the Right of the political spectrum to run away from the Dope from Hope.

[MitchellC]

Why do you think that?

Paul's been polling around 5% from what I recall, but I expect him to easily double that. I figure there's something to a lot of people coming into the process for Paul that haven't been counted in the polls. But to come in ahead of Thompson? I doubt that. That would take a good 15%+.

[dinoparty]

Predictions. You heard it here first:

Republicans
1. Romney
2. Huckabee
3. McCain
4. Thompson
5. Guliani
6. Paul
7. Hunter
8. Keyes

Democrats
1. Edwards
2. Clinton
3. Obama
4. Biden
5. Richardson
6. Dodd
7. Kucinich
8. Gravel

[steveegg]

May the Thompson folks make my cracked hard-boiled shell prediction wrong:

- Pubbies -
Huckabee - 26%
Romney - 24%
Thompson - 19%
Paul - 10%
McCain - 9%
Hunter - 5% (and a fraction above Giuliani)
Giuliani - 5%
Keyes - 2%

- Rats -
Edwards - 30%
Obama - 29%
Clinton - 28%
The field - 13%

[eXe]

I will toss my predictions in what the heck.. lol

Repubs:

1. Mike Huckabee
2. Fred Thompson
3. Mitt Romney
4. John McCain
5. Ron Paul

Dems:

1. Barack Obama
2. John Edwards
3. Hillary Clinton
4. Chris Dodd
5. Joe Biden

I really really hope Fred does as I have predicted, it might be wishful thinking but my bet is on him to surge when the rubber meets the road.

[Bosco]

I am eagerly awaiting the sinking of the USS Hillary.

USS?!?

I don't think so.

Good point. How were the Soviet Union's ships designated? That's how Hillary should be identified.

[Loyolas Mattman]

Republicans

1. Huckster
2. Romney
3. Fred (with a bullet - closer to Romney than McCain and the winner of tonight’s “Better than Expected” award)
4. McCain
5. Ronpaul
6. Rudy

Dems

1. Obama
2. Breck Girl
3. Cankles (...It will be me...Cackle, Cackle)
4. Richardson

[BGHater]

20th century polling, 21st century voting.

Polls are outdated and do not reflect the cell phone, caller ID, people who simply don’t respond to polls, and the people who are first time voters, switching parties and others.

[Kevmo]

Here’s what I posted on Intrade last night.

Proceeding from this snapshot of chances to WIN the GOP caucus at Intrade,

Winner of 2008 Republican Iowa Caucus
REP.IOWA.HUCKABEE 53.2
REP.IOWA.ROMNEY 40.0
REP.IOWA.MCCAIN 1.0
REP.IOWA.THOMPSON(F) 0.3
REP.IOWA.GIULIANI 0.1
REP.IOWA.GINGRICH
REP.IOWA.FIELD 3.3

and noting that RPaul and Duncan Hunter have been bundled in the field, Here’s my prediction for tomorrow in terms of percentages.

REP.IOWA.HUCKABEE 33
REP.IOWA.ROMNEY 22
Duncan Hunter 12
REP.IOWA.MCCAIN 11
Ron Paul 9
REP.IOWA.THOMPSON(F) 8
REP.IOWA.GIULIANI 4
REP.IOWA.FIELD 1

Yes, I think Hunter will come in third. What’s the basis of my reasoning? Well, mostly wishful thinking, but there has been some movement here on Intrade for Hunter, and Iowans value authenticity. That’s why I see them giving Huckabee the nod, shunning Romney (in a relative sense, compared to all the money spent ), and not giving McCain as much of a boost as he’s showing in the polls. I also see them going in for Ron Paul because he’s genuine, if really far afield from mainstream GOP values.

Iowa is a caucus state, and polls usually end up being meaningless before caucus votes. Iowans always surprise the pundits, and they’re basically conservative.

I also think Obama will beat Clinton and there will be a complete revamping of Clinton’s campaign. She will be leaner, meaner, stronger, and tougher to beat as a result.