Here’s what I posted on Intrade last night.
Proceeding from this snapshot of chances to WIN the GOP caucus at Intrade,
Winner of 2008 Republican Iowa Caucus
REP.IOWA.HUCKABEE 53.2
REP.IOWA.ROMNEY 40.0
REP.IOWA.MCCAIN 1.0
REP.IOWA.THOMPSON(F) 0.3
REP.IOWA.GIULIANI 0.1
REP.IOWA.GINGRICH
REP.IOWA.FIELD 3.3
and noting that RPaul and Duncan Hunter have been bundled in the field, Here’s my prediction for tomorrow in terms of percentages.
REP.IOWA.HUCKABEE 33
REP.IOWA.ROMNEY 22
Duncan Hunter 12
REP.IOWA.MCCAIN 11
Ron Paul 9
REP.IOWA.THOMPSON(F) 8
REP.IOWA.GIULIANI 4
REP.IOWA.FIELD 1
Yes, I think Hunter will come in third. What’s the basis of my reasoning? Well, mostly wishful thinking, but there has been some movement here on Intrade for Hunter, and Iowans value authenticity. That’s why I see them giving Huckabee the nod, shunning Romney (in a relative sense, compared to all the money spent ), and not giving McCain as much of a boost as he’s showing in the polls. I also see them going in for Ron Paul because he’s genuine, if really far afield from mainstream GOP values.
Iowa is a caucus state, and polls usually end up being meaningless before caucus votes. Iowans always surprise the pundits, and they’re basically conservative.
I also think Obama will beat Clinton and there will be a complete revamping of Clinton’s campaign. She will be leaner, meaner, stronger, and tougher to beat as a result.
ALL wishful thinking. Take the 2 away from the 12. He’ll be at 1%
Ignorance of statistics.
Here’s what we have so far.
1546 of 1781 Precincts Reporting - 87%
Name Party Votes Vote %
Huckabee, Mike GOP 35,621 34%
Romney, Mitt GOP 26,524 25%
Thompson, Fred GOP 13,932 13%
McCain, John GOP 13,693 13%
Paul, Ron GOP 10,184 10%
Giuliani, Rudy GOP 3,613 3%
Hunter, Duncan GOP 458 0%
Tancredo, Tom GOP 3 0%
Here’s what I posted.
REP.IOWA.HUCKABEE 33
REP.IOWA.ROMNEY 22
Duncan Hunter 12
REP.IOWA.MCCAIN 11
Ron Paul 9
REP.IOWA.THOMPSON(F) 8
REP.IOWA.GIULIANI 4
REP.IOWA.FIELD 1
If you subtract my wishful thinking for Hunter, I got pretty close on the order and even the percentages.
Well, congrats to the Huckabee supporters on their win. And also to Obama, glad to see Hildebeast knocked down a notch.