Fred Thompson may drop out (For any latecomers, it's baloney)

The Politico ^ | January 02, 2008 | Jonathan Martin and Mike Allen

[camerakid400]

DES MOINES, Iowa – Several Republican officials close to Fred Thompson’s presidential campaign said they expect the candidate will drop out of the race within days if he finishes poorly in Thursday’s Iowa caucus.

[Kevmo]

Fred will be dropping out and endorsing John McCain in about 48 hours.
***If that happens, Team Fred is probably going to be pretty pissed here on FR, feeling as betrayed as Tancredo’s team.

Tomorrow will be an interesting day, that’s for sure.

[Kevmo]

Wanna bet Fred does gets more delegates than your RonPaul?
***That’s what Intrade is for. Currently Thompson is trading at 0.3 and the field (where RPaul is embedded ) is at 3.3 so if either of them are considered a bargain, you can go over to Intrade without waiting for your Freeper penpal to answer the bet. Your bet with another freeper probably doesn’t include 10:1 odds built in...

Winner of 2008 Republican Iowa Caucus
REP.IOWA.HUCKABEE
Mike Huckabee to Win M 53.1 59.6 53.2 2246 -5.8
REP.IOWA.ROMNEY
Mitt Romney to Win M 36.0 46.0 40.0 2681 +2.0
REP.IOWA.MCCAIN
John McCain to Win M 0.7 1.5 1.0 1103 0
REP.IOWA.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to Win M 0.2 0.7 0.3 770 0
REP.IOWA.GIULIANI
Rudy Giuliani to Win M - 0.1 0.1 711 0
REP.IOWA.GINGRICH
Newt Gingrich to Win M - 0.1 0.1 0 0
REP.IOWA.HAGEL
Chuck Hagel to Win M - 0.1 0.1 0 0
REP.IOWA.FIELD
Field (any other individual) to Win M 2.1 4.5 3.3 2581 0

[BlueNgold]

Does anyone outside of intrade and some random gambling addicts actually care what intrade says?

[Kevmo]

Does anyone outside of intrade and some random gambling addicts actually care what intrade says?
***Yes. Prediction markets have proven to be more reliable than polls, so their data are being used throughout the media and by political pundits across the spectrum.

One thing prediction markets are better at — their only bias is whether someone can make money trading the futures contracts.

The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts
Posted on 11/08/2007 12:21:43 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum

Rasmussen has started using Intrade results.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1945852/posts

They seem to openly admit that the data for Iowa between Christmas and New Year’s is unreliable: “Rasmussen Reports has not conducted polling in Iowa between Christmas and New Years. We have doubts about the ability to obtain reliable results during that time frame.”

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According to Intrade, the winner of the December 12th GOP debate was... Duncan Hunter.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1938773/posts

Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts

[D-fendr]

A) That’s Iowa. I’m talking long haul.

B) I challenged Rachel to a bet not some booke.

thanks for your reply.

[D-fendr]

Ah, another rumor on the rumor-rumor thread.

[Kevmo]

Well, if Rachel doesn’t take your bet, Intrade will. And Intrade will pay if you’re right; getting another freeper to pay on a bet has proven, um, challenging.

For instance, what if one or the other or both drop out?

You might want to keep an eye out for the Fred.dropout contracts. He’s ahead of Ron Paul on those as well. So if he drops out before Ron Paul, it’s likely he’ll have fewer delegates than Paul.

DROPOUT.JAN08.(F)THOMPSON
Fred Thompson to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 35.2

DROPOUT.FEB08.(F)THOMPSON
Fred Thompson to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 29 Feb 2008 85.5

[Kevmo]

Also, I forgot to mention that the Intrade contracts for Nominee would seem to cover what you wanted to bet with Rachel about. The cool thing is you or Rachel could get out of the bet whenever you wanted, just sell your contracts.

If Thompson gets this big boost from Iowa that all the freepers are counting on, his Nom contract will definitely go up. This may your chance to make money. Thompson is a better bargain than Ron Paul.

2008.GOP.NOM.PAUL
Ron Paul to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 7.0
2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 3.0

[ElPatriota]

LOL!..

I will have to 'borrow' this picture!... Hugggg... This guy represents everything I destest in a politician, except for this hair! :)

By the way I don't think people are 'stupid' for choosing him, no. I think they know exactly what they are doing... The right interest groups are behind him... and want this con-artist to get elected. I can't imagine most ordinary people to want something like this!

Can you picture this weasel in office? Who could the truth from the BS anymore! :)... It'scary. He will probaly make McaCain look like an amateur :)

---

[longtermmemmory]

Thompson has said he is not dropping out.

McCain has NH history he is trading on. I don’t see McCain topping Thompson beyond the wishful reporting of the Drive By Media.

[freeangel]

Blah,blah, blah. And I’m sure “sources” next to hillary said she would cry and try to look more feminine if she lost today. If one believes this rumour, then one has to believe Ronnie will be back to run.

[John Valentine]

Get your crying rag ready, lady. You’re going to need it.

[catfish1957]

More disinfomration from the Taliban section of our party (Romney and Huckabee)

[John Valentine]

Of course, if Fred drops out, I’ll have to eat these words, but I’m pretty confident about it

You just DID say that Fred will drop out. You are only questioning the timing.

THOSE are the words you will have to eat. No seasonings allowed. Fred will be there at the end, with delegates enough to be a force at the convention. Your guy is duck squat as of now.

[John Valentine]

Your firing order is exactly right. You got it!

[Loud Mime]

All this over Iowa and New Hampster? The press has grown their importance beyond all reason.

[Bluestateredman]

Your tagline reminds me of the people driving around with Kerry/Edwards bumper stickers still on their cars.

[longtermmemmory]

the press is going nuts BECAUSE they don’t matter.

Frank luntz was on FNC saying it is a Huckabeee / Romney race.

The DBM needs to sell ads.

[Thermalseeker]

Nope. Fred will come in a close 3rd or even a 2nd tomorrow.

I agree. I think Fred is going to surprise a lot of folks tonight. Polling in Iowa, historically, has been dead wrong many times. I hope the naysayers have some ketchup for all that crow they're going to be eating come Friday.....