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Fred Thompson may drop out (For any latecomers, it's baloney)
The Politico ^ | January 02, 2008 | Jonathan Martin and Mike Allen

Posted on 01/02/2008 9:23:55 PM PST by camerakid400

DES MOINES, Iowa – Several Republican officials close to Fred Thompson’s presidential campaign said they expect the candidate will drop out of the race within days if he finishes poorly in Thursday’s Iowa caucus.

(Excerpt) Read more at dyn.politico.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: dirtytricks; elections; fred; fredthompson; gossip; ia2008; jonathanmartin; medialies; mikeallen; politico; politicommie; rumors; zot
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To: RachelFaith

Fred will be dropping out and endorsing John McCain in about 48 hours.
***If that happens, Team Fred is probably going to be pretty pissed here on FR, feeling as betrayed as Tancredo’s team.

Tomorrow will be an interesting day, that’s for sure.


241 posted on 01/03/2008 12:36:29 AM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: D-fendr

Wanna bet Fred does gets more delegates than your RonPaul?
***That’s what Intrade is for. Currently Thompson is trading at 0.3 and the field (where RPaul is embedded ) is at 3.3 so if either of them are considered a bargain, you can go over to Intrade without waiting for your Freeper penpal to answer the bet. Your bet with another freeper probably doesn’t include 10:1 odds built in...

Winner of 2008 Republican Iowa Caucus
REP.IOWA.HUCKABEE
Mike Huckabee to Win M 53.1 59.6 53.2 2246 -5.8
REP.IOWA.ROMNEY
Mitt Romney to Win M 36.0 46.0 40.0 2681 +2.0
REP.IOWA.MCCAIN
John McCain to Win M 0.7 1.5 1.0 1103 0
REP.IOWA.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to Win M 0.2 0.7 0.3 770 0
REP.IOWA.GIULIANI
Rudy Giuliani to Win M - 0.1 0.1 711 0
REP.IOWA.GINGRICH
Newt Gingrich to Win M - 0.1 0.1 0 0
REP.IOWA.HAGEL
Chuck Hagel to Win M - 0.1 0.1 0 0
REP.IOWA.FIELD
Field (any other individual) to Win M 2.1 4.5 3.3 2581 0


242 posted on 01/03/2008 12:42:24 AM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo

Does anyone outside of intrade and some random gambling addicts actually care what intrade says?


243 posted on 01/03/2008 12:44:06 AM PST by BlueNgold (Feed the Tree .....)
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To: BlueNgold

Does anyone outside of intrade and some random gambling addicts actually care what intrade says?
***Yes. Prediction markets have proven to be more reliable than polls, so their data are being used throughout the media and by political pundits across the spectrum.

One thing prediction markets are better at — their only bias is whether someone can make money trading the futures contracts.

The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts
Posted on 11/08/2007 12:21:43 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum

Rasmussen has started using Intrade results.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1945852/posts

They seem to openly admit that the data for Iowa between Christmas and New Year’s is unreliable: “Rasmussen Reports has not conducted polling in Iowa between Christmas and New Years. We have doubts about the ability to obtain reliable results during that time frame.”

.

.

.

.

According to Intrade, the winner of the December 12th GOP debate was... Duncan Hunter.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1938773/posts

Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts


244 posted on 01/03/2008 12:53:07 AM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo

A) That’s Iowa. I’m talking long haul.

B) I challenged Rachel to a bet not some booke.

thanks for your reply.


245 posted on 01/03/2008 1:14:39 AM PST by D-fendr (Deus non alligatur sacramentis sed nos alligamur.)
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Comment #246 Removed by Moderator

To: AKSurprise

Ah, another rumor on the rumor-rumor thread.


247 posted on 01/03/2008 1:25:28 AM PST by D-fendr (Deus non alligatur sacramentis sed nos alligamur.)
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To: D-fendr

Well, if Rachel doesn’t take your bet, Intrade will. And Intrade will pay if you’re right; getting another freeper to pay on a bet has proven, um, challenging.

For instance, what if one or the other or both drop out?

You might want to keep an eye out for the Fred.dropout contracts. He’s ahead of Ron Paul on those as well. So if he drops out before Ron Paul, it’s likely he’ll have fewer delegates than Paul.

DROPOUT.JAN08.(F)THOMPSON
Fred Thompson to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 35.2

DROPOUT.FEB08.(F)THOMPSON
Fred Thompson to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 29 Feb 2008 85.5


248 posted on 01/03/2008 1:31:18 AM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: D-fendr; RachelFaith

Also, I forgot to mention that the Intrade contracts for Nominee would seem to cover what you wanted to bet with Rachel about. The cool thing is you or Rachel could get out of the bet whenever you wanted, just sell your contracts.

If Thompson gets this big boost from Iowa that all the freepers are counting on, his Nom contract will definitely go up. This may your chance to make money. Thompson is a better bargain than Ron Paul.

2008.GOP.NOM.PAUL
Ron Paul to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 7.0
2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 3.0


249 posted on 01/03/2008 1:44:11 AM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: P-Marlowe
LOL!..

I will have to 'borrow' this picture!... Hugggg... This guy represents everything I destest in a politician, except for this hair! :)

By the way I don't think people are 'stupid' for choosing him, no. I think they know exactly what they are doing... The right interest groups are behind him... and want this con-artist to get elected. I can't imagine most ordinary people to want something like this!

Can you picture this weasel in office? Who could the truth from the BS anymore! :)... It'scary. He will probaly make McaCain look like an amateur :)



250 posted on 01/03/2008 1:49:38 AM PST by ElPatriota (Duncan Hunter 08 -- I am proud to support this man for my president)
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To: AKSurprise

Thompson has said he is not dropping out.

McCain has NH history he is trading on. I don’t see McCain topping Thompson beyond the wishful reporting of the Drive By Media.


251 posted on 01/03/2008 2:39:13 AM PST by longtermmemmory (VOTE! http://www.senate.gov and http://www.house.gov)
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To: longtermmemmory

Blah,blah, blah. And I’m sure “sources” next to hillary said she would cry and try to look more feminine if she lost today. If one believes this rumour, then one has to believe Ronnie will be back to run.


252 posted on 01/03/2008 2:52:19 AM PST by freeangel ( (free speech is only good until someone else doesn't like what you say))
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To: RachelFaith

Get your crying rag ready, lady. You’re going to need it.


253 posted on 01/03/2008 3:32:41 AM PST by John Valentine
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To: Romneyfor President2008

More disinfomration from the Taliban section of our party (Romney and Huckabee)


254 posted on 01/03/2008 3:36:52 AM PST by catfish1957 (In honor of my 5 Confederate ancestors whodefended their homeland during the War of Northn Agression)
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To: CharlesWayneCT
Of course, if Fred drops out, I’ll have to eat these words, but I’m pretty confident about it

You just DID say that Fred will drop out. You are only questioning the timing.

THOSE are the words you will have to eat. No seasonings allowed. Fred will be there at the end, with delegates enough to be a force at the convention. Your guy is duck squat as of now.

255 posted on 01/03/2008 3:37:19 AM PST by John Valentine
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To: Ingtar

Your firing order is exactly right. You got it!


256 posted on 01/03/2008 3:41:10 AM PST by John Valentine
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To: longtermmemmory

All this over Iowa and New Hampster? The press has grown their importance beyond all reason.


257 posted on 01/03/2008 3:43:13 AM PST by Loud Mime (DB Cooper is still missing? He looks kinda like "W", maybe it was his fault!)
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To: lesser_satan

Your tagline reminds me of the people driving around with Kerry/Edwards bumper stickers still on their cars.


258 posted on 01/03/2008 3:45:57 AM PST by Bluestateredman (Self-sufficiency is the American Way)
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To: Loud Mime

the press is going nuts BECAUSE they don’t matter.

Frank luntz was on FNC saying it is a Huckabeee / Romney race.

The DBM needs to sell ads.


259 posted on 01/03/2008 3:52:02 AM PST by longtermmemmory (VOTE! http://www.senate.gov and http://www.house.gov)
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To: Yaelle
Nope. Fred will come in a close 3rd or even a 2nd tomorrow.

I agree. I think Fred is going to surprise a lot of folks tonight. Polling in Iowa, historically, has been dead wrong many times. I hope the naysayers have some ketchup for all that crow they're going to be eating come Friday.....

260 posted on 01/03/2008 4:00:27 AM PST by Thermalseeker (Debates? Those weren't no stinkin' debates!)
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