Posted on 12/12/2007 11:31:53 PM PST by Kevmo
Here are the new Intrade results after the debate, as posted on the official discussion thread.
For the first time there has been a measurable change for DUNCAN HUNTER, doubling in price and showing a major jump embedded in Iowa.Field with a 3.3 point jump.
Duncan Hunter Won the debate. Huckabee Lost.
And, since this is going to be controversial, I will point out that I’ve been logging onto several prior debate threads where I analyzed the changes in Intrade results from the debates -- and usually the analysis showed was Huckabee who won. This time it's Hunter.
Naturally, those with an axe to grind will go out of their way to belittle this analysis. Out of all the candidates, Hunter seems to have his own version of a peanut gallery. Notably, when I had pointed out in earlier debates that Huckabee had won, no one could fault the analysis -- they merely felt that Intrade was not a reliable source of information. The reason why I proceed from Intrade is that it is an aggregated form of information, its only bias is from whether or not someone can make money from the contracts, and predictive markets have proven to be more reliable than poll results. As an example, refer to this article on Free Republic:
The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts
2008 Republican Presidential Nominee Old Price … New Price… Change
2008.GOP.NOM.GIULIANI 41.1 41.1 No chg 2008.GOP.NOM.ROMNEY 20.2 21.4 +1.2 2008.GOP.NOM.HUCKABEE 17.8 18.0 +0.2 2008.GOP.NOM.MCCAIN 9.2 9.2 No chg 2008.GOP.NOM.PAUL 5.0 6.0 +1.0 2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F) 5.1 5.0 -0.1 2008.GOP.NOM.HUNTER 0.1 0.2 +0.1
Ron Paul's contracts saw a 20% rise, Thompson's saw a 2% fall, Huckabee's saw a 1% rise, Romney's saw a 6% rise and Hunter's saw a 100% rise in price.
Winner of 2008 Republican Iowa Caucus
Old Price … New Price … Price Change REP.IOWA.HUCKABEE Mike Huckabee to Win 72.5 70.8 -1.7 REP.IOWA.ROMNEY Mitt Romney to Win 25.1 25.1 No chg REP.IOWA.THOMPSON(F) Fred Thompson to Win 1.5 1.5 No chg REP.IOWA.GIULIANI Rudy Giuliani to Win 0.4 2.5 +2.1 REP.IOWA.MCCAIN John McCain to Win 0.5 1.7 +1.2 REP.IOWA.FIELD Field (any other individual) to Win 1.1 4.4 +3.3
The biggest changes were Giuliani and the Field. Hunter, Tancredo and Ron Paul are all embedded in the field. Interpolating from the fact that Tancredo's NOM contract saw no change and no volume, the two biggest elements would be Ron Paul's and Hunter's contracts. It's a real safe bet at this stage -- later on an Intrader would need to decide if he wanted to stick with Hunter or Paul when the contracts split out from the field. Further interpolating From Ron Paul's 20% rise and Hunter's 100% rise, that would leave about a half point rise due to Ron Paul's performance and maybe 2 & a half point rise for Hunter for Iowa.Win.
Rudy also seems to have done well in this debate for the Iowa results. Thompson and Huckabee lost ground.
The smart money really IS on Duncan Hunter.
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Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts
I don’t know who keeps the Duncan Hunter ping list these days, so I pinged the usual suspects... ;-)
I find these results very encouraging.
Here’s a recent poll showing Hunter at 4%.
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28889/republicans_2008_giuliani_28_thompson_19
Here’s an intrade link to the forum site discussing how Hunter might be gaining traction. http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1797.page
Here’s an intrade link to the forum site discussing how Fred is at $6, which corresponds to the traders believing he has a 6% chance of winning the nomination, and discussing why. http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1805.page
The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts
Posted on 11/08/2007 12:21:43 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum
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Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts
I read two other articles yesterday, one had Thompson the hands down winner, the other had Romney.
I would be happy with Hunter or Thompson, but it would ake a miracle for Hunter to achieve the name recognition at this point. I’m not sure most people are even aware he is in the race.
It was a televised debate, wasn’t it?
I heard that 6/10 Iowans hadn’t yet made up their minds.
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Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts
Yeah, but what about his youthful drug use?
*snort*
DUNCAN HUNTER SUPPORTERS UNITE.
I will take it.
Any forward movement at this time is welcome, against the backdrop of being slickly kept out of news leads and cropped out of photos of debate participants on the stage.
You don't need an axe to grind, just a rudimentary grasp of math, to belittle this analysis.
This isn't a parody, right? If so, kudos.
The smallest statistical increment they're reporting is .1. Hunter moved up to .2 from .1. Whee.
Markets do have great predictive value. This market was, and is, predicting Hunter has zero chance of accomplishing anything.
Markets do have great predictive value. This market was, and is, predicting Hunter has zero chance of accomplishing anything.
***Let’s see. Intrade showed Huckabee with about the same amount of chance of winning the presidency in October. Now he’s at 10%.
If the liberal evangelical Huckster can rise, so can the conservative evangelical Hunter. Thanks for bumping the thread.
http://www.intrade.com/images/generated/intrade/pres_election.png
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Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts
He’s got the Big Mo now.
Hunter took on the Iowan 3rd rail, ethanol. He said, “it isn’t the greatest thing in show business”. He is the man for the job and of this I have no doubts. Whether the American people hire him for the job or not remains to be seen. It seems the electorate is trying to choose who they can trust by watching debates. I find that illogical. Choosing a candidate based solely on debates and 30 sec sound-bites, will, if we are lucky, get the best politician elected. We need a leader, not a politician; Someone who has a history of securing borders, putting the ChiComs on notice, advocating for life, building a strong national defense and standing up for Americans. That leader is Duncan Hunter. Accept no substitutes. :)
The GOP nom has that exact effect.
Why pin the bow on someone whose numbers will NOT increase with the nomination? That doesn't get conservatives elected, it creates RINO infestations!
Yes, but Hunter can’t buy enough media coverage to get enough name recognition to get the nomination.
BTTT!
Huckabee hasn’t spent much money at all. Look where he sits.
Romney has paid for about 20,000 ads and isn’t doing all that well.
Kerry was at 4% 3 weeks before the Iowa caucuses.
Never say never!
I think the real conservatives know who hunter is and I believe most of them are never polled. I also think each one of the candidate’s shills say their candidate won.
Aren’t they the ones that had Kerry at 80% chance of winning on election day?? It’s pure emotion. Fred walked away with it and that will be seen in the next week.
Pray for W and Our Victorious Troops
Great...then we’re going to get another Commander-in-Chief with ZERO military experience and zero combat experience as the leader of the “tough on terror” party. Just what I want to see.
I can here the questions now, “Mr. Thompson, what qualifications do you have to lead our military and country in the current War on Terror.”
Response: “I acted a tough role on Law in Order.”
Senator Fred Thompson served as chairman of the International Security Advisory Board at the United States Department of State September 2005 — July 2007. Senator Thompson also is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, a member of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission and a visiting fellow with the American Enterprise Institute.
He later served on the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, Senate Intelligence Committee, and the Tennessee Appellate Court Nominating Commission.
Fred Thompson Served on the US-China Economic Review Commission
- U.S. - China Economic and Security Review Commission
http://www.uscc.gov/about/commissioners/thompsonpg.php
Fred Thompson is an AEI Scholar specializing in Diplomatic Relations and Foreign Intelligence.
United States senator from Tennessee, 1994-2003 (chairman, Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs, 1997-2001)
Member, Tennessee Appellate Court Nominating Commission, 1985-1987
Special counsel, Senate Committee on Intelligence, 1982
Special counsel, Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, 1980-1981
As Chairman of the Government Affairs committee, he blocked giving North Korea essentially all of our trade secrets.
Fred Thompson is currently the Chairman of the International Security Advisory Board, a high-level panel charged with evaluating long-term threats to U. S. security.
- U.S. Dept. of State, Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security, ISN, ISAB
http://www.state.gov/t/isn/isab/68268.htm
Fred Thompson’s Senate Committee assignments:
Special Counsel to both the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence
and the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations under President Reagan
Member of the powerful Senate Committee on Finance, which has jurisdiction over, among other things, international trade.
Member of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence
Member of the National Security Working Group, which observes and monitors executive branch negotiations with foreign governments.
Chairman of the Government Affairs Committee 1997-2001
Ranking Republican Minority Member of the Government Affairs Committee 2001-2003
Chairman of the Senate Government Oversight Committee
Foreign Relations Committee, 1995-96
Member, Technology, Terrorism and Government. Information, 1995-98
Member, Finance Committee, 1999-200
Nuclear Proliferation Act
Special Counsel Act
Aviation Security Bill Amendment
FY 1999 Omnibus Appropriations Bill
Regulatory Right-To-Know Act
Homeland Security Workforce Act
Homeland Security Education Act
Thompson amendment to Treasury-Postal Title (Section 646) of the Consolidated Appropriations Bill
Regulatory Improvement Act (S. 981)
Thompson Amendment to the National Homeland Security and Combating Terrorism Act
Thompson Amendment to the National Employee Savings and Trust Equity Act
The Federal Emergency Procurement Flexibility Act
The Federalism Accountability Act
The Government Information Security Reform Act (GISRA)
The Thompson Amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act
The Truth in Regulation Act
So he knows what about being in in the middle of a war?
Two Republican candidates have actively fought in a war. Two Republican candidates have children who are currently sacraficing their lives in the War on Terror.
None of them are named Romney, Thompson, Giuliani, or Huckabee.
If the GOP really wanted to convince the voting public that they are the pro-military and terror warrior party, the party to lead the country in the War on Terror, they would nominate a Presidential candidate who has been in a war, and who can actually relate and empathize with active military families.
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