Markets do have great predictive value. This market was, and is, predicting Hunter has zero chance of accomplishing anything.
***Let’s see. Intrade showed Huckabee with about the same amount of chance of winning the presidency in October. Now he’s at 10%.
If the liberal evangelical Huckster can rise, so can the conservative evangelical Hunter. Thanks for bumping the thread.
http://www.intrade.com/images/generated/intrade/pres_election.png
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Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts
Hunter took on the Iowan 3rd rail, ethanol. He said, “it isn’t the greatest thing in show business”. He is the man for the job and of this I have no doubts. Whether the American people hire him for the job or not remains to be seen. It seems the electorate is trying to choose who they can trust by watching debates. I find that illogical. Choosing a candidate based solely on debates and 30 sec sound-bites, will, if we are lucky, get the best politician elected. We need a leader, not a politician; Someone who has a history of securing borders, putting the ChiComs on notice, advocating for life, building a strong national defense and standing up for Americans. That leader is Duncan Hunter. Accept no substitutes. :)
In other words, the market was completely wrong then, but they're right now?
Using the failure of Intrade to predict the Huckabee "bump" doesn't help your sell anyone else on your Intrade obsession, complete with all of the assumptions you try to pass off as facts (such as your laughable "extrapolation" of the Paul and Hunter numbers).
Let's face it, the Intrade market may be fairly reliable at addressing a nominally 50/50 proposition, such as a two-person race. But the current GOP is so muddled that there's no bass other than emotion for the current trading values.
Update
2008.GOP.NOM.HUNTER
Duncan Hunter to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.1 0.3 0.2 30386 +0.1
Hunter’s contracts continue to move, there was a large block at 0.2 that has been bought up, so now the ask price is tripled.
