Posted on 12/12/2007 11:31:53 PM PST by Kevmo
What conservative could? When her thighness sets the price, and OWNS the store? Why would you vote for someone paid and packaged by the ENEMEDIA?
It's still WE THE PEOPLE...... Right?
“And Hunter would make the best president. So show him your support.”
Get real.
Okay, thanks for the post.
Hunter is better on WOT and foreign policy. He’s a better candidate. His character is sterling. And yesterday he won the debate, by an objective analysis. Of course, there’s some subjectivity because I’m a Hunter supporter, but no one accused me of subjectivity when I was saying that Intrade showed Huckabee to be the winner of debates.
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Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts
I am real.
You want to bring up points about who would be the best president, I’m sure Hunter will absolutely shine in that regard.
Hunter won the debate yesterday. His contracts continue to move at Intrade. Huckabee was the last one who experienced this kind of upswing, and now everyone knows his name.
It’s Hunter’s turn.
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Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts
Hi Jonesie.
Are trading markets better predictors than polls?
If yes, then isn’t it the right move to proceed from their data? If no, then show some evidence.
The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts
Posted on 11/08/2007 12:21:43 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum
In other words, the market was completely wrong then, but they’re right now?
***I posted before & after snapshots at Intrade for a few debates, and most of those were won by Huckabee. Then, viola!, Huckabee sees a rise in the polls. So, the market was completely RIGHT.
Using the failure of Intrade to predict the Huckabee “bump” doesn’t help your sell anyone else on your Intrade obsession,
***Actually, I used the same level of data that I use today to show that Huckabee had won the debates. And I’m a Hunter supporter. So, you got that one wrong. Which is about what I expect, when I see your responses, after all you used some of the most classic fallacies on the smart money thread, and even, IIRC the first time in my life I’ve ever seen a “straw man within a straw man”.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts
complete with all of the assumptions you try to pass off as facts (such as your laughable “extrapolation” of the Paul and Hunter numbers).
***Assumptions are assumptions and I do not try to pass them off as facts. Again (no surprise here) a straw argument from you.
Let’s face it, the Intrade market may be fairly reliable at addressing a nominally 50/50 proposition, such as a two-person race. But the current GOP is so muddled that there’s no bass other than emotion for the current trading values.
***Wrong. The emotion we are seeing on this thread is mostly from Fred supporters who have fear in their veins. If you have issues with the efficacy of Prediction markets, maybe you should bring that up on the efficacy thread. In the absence of that, your points have been easily refuted.
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Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts
doubling your support when you’re at a half-point doesn’t mean much.
***Does losing 30 points at Intrade mean anything? If you’re a Fred supporter, the typical answer is No. If you’re supporting someone else or just a bystander, the typical answer is Yes.
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Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts
“You want to bring up points about who would be the best president”
Like I said I was only correcting a stupid remark in post 18.
Since you are a guy that supports senator Feinstein and is still glad that she narrowly held on to her seat against the republican challenger in the 1994 revolution, I have to wonder at your relentless pep-rally efforts to keep Hunter’s non- viable candidacy alive, thereby squelching the conservative chances at winning the primary.
Since you are a guy that supports senator Feinstein and is still glad that she narrowly held on to her seat against the republican challenger in the 1994 revolution,
***Wrong. I was a guy who supported the republican in Santa Barbara who was taken down by Huffington’s money. I was in Huffington’s district and had some important dealings with the guvmint at the time, needing a good ombudsman in the congressperson’s office. Huffington was an empty suit, never bothered to even answer the phone for the most part. Huffington turned out to be gay, wanting to change the republican stance on gays, and has all the earmarkings of a RINO with money. So stop with your straw argumentation; actually, in this context it could easily be called a lie. We need to get rid of RINOs in this party, they are destroying it. The natural result of a RINO in office is that the demos are in charge. This is a conservative website, not a GOP website, and I’m supporting the most conservative candidate.
I have to wonder at your relentless pep-rally efforts to keep Hunter’s non- viable candidacy alive, thereby squelching the conservative chances at winning the primary
***Thank you for the acknowledgement of my “relentless” support. I’ve actually held back some, confining my comments to immigration threads, pro-life threads, Fred-is-squandering-or-languishing threads, a few All-candidate discussion threads. My conclusion is that with drooping poll numbers and losing 30 points (including the lead) at Intrade, Thompson is a loser. Now Hunter is emerging from his shadow, on a shoestring budget, similar to how Huckabee is taking down Romney.
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Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts
No, the market was completely WRONG -- they were reactive to events, not predictors of events, which is your whole premise.
you used some of the most classic fallacies on the smart money thread
Yes, I still see you flogging your laughable "analysis" there, complete to the point where you simply make up your own probabilities, and then analyze them as if they were facts. And any critique pointing out those flaws immediately labeled as "classic fallacies". I call that projection, myself.
I stopped posting there because it was pointless arguing with someone who basis his rationale on "I say it is true, therefore it is true".
Assumptions are assumptions and I do not try to pass them off as facts.
LOL. That's all your "Intrade" threads have been about -- promoting your flawed assumptions as if they were golden reality.
Wrong. The emotion we are seeing on this thread is mostly from Fred supporters who have fear in their veins. If you have issues with the efficacy of Prediction markets, maybe you should bring that up on the efficacy thread.
The dramatic movements in the market as reactive indicators tell me that they are the results of emotion, not reason. A reasoned market would have pre-priced those probabilities into the contract, not have massive up- and down-swings based on day-to-day events.
The whole premise here is based on Intrade being a predictor -- but all of the data shows that they are reactive, not proactive, and basically mirror current MSM sentiment.
I could see the same thing in any MSM poll, why would I need Intrade?
your points have been easily refuted
I'll let unbiased observers determine who has refuted whom.
As Col. David Hunt, an expert in combating terror organizations, stated in his book, “They Just Don’t Get It”, maybe of those bureaucratic committees get in the way more than do good.
“Since you are a guy that supports senator Feinstein and is still glad that she narrowly held on to her seat against the republican challenger in the 1994 revolution, “
That stands.
Actually this far out in a race with as many variables as this one has, I find that neither the markets or the polls are worth “betting” on...
“As Col. David Hunt, an expert in combating terror organizations, stated in his book, “They Just Don’t Get It”, maybe of those bureaucratic committees get in the way more than do good.”
That is perfectly arguable, but it sure blows away your post 18.
What’s a large block?......... 10, 100, 1000 and how do they compare to the other candidates? In other words what the interest level among them?
***Your question is answered on the Intrade forum, which is suitable because it is basically an Intrade issue.
https://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1855.page
And while you’re over there on the Intrade forum, have a look at the forum site discussing how Fred is tanking, and discussing why. http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1805.page
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Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts
Your question is answered on the Intrade forum, which is suitable because it is basically an Intrade issue.
Thanks anyway.
That doesn’t answer the question. The question is whether they produce good data, especially in contrast to polls.
If yes (which is what the efficacy thread talks about) then what’s wrong with proceeding with the data? If no, please show how their data has been less reliable than polls.
The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts
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Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts
So you don’t know? Thanks anyway.
***Yes I do know. But in the past I’ve been accused of being the cut & paste king. So there’s no reason to cut & paste an entire thread that answers your question. And notably, the question is answered by seasoned Intraders.
Pick your poison.
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Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts
No, not at this point. I question the accuracy of both at this point in the game.
No, it does not stand. It is a lie.
If Tootyfruityrudy gets the nomination, I will vote a 100% republican ticket. But I will write in the republican who deserves the nomination, Duncan Hunter. That’s a 100% republican ticket.
My vote in 1994 was similarly 100% republican.
You are a liar.
And trying to equate, “ a write-in vote is a wasted vote for Hillary” is a bunch of baloney, so don’t bother with that RINO argument, unless you’re a RINO.
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