Posted on 11/29/2007 9:24:55 AM PST by mustang buff
A recession and a bear market in asset prices are inevitable for the US economy. Recent economic data leave no doubt that both are on their way.
(Excerpt) Read more at dailyreckoning.co.uk ...
or end up in power...
Sorry, sloppy posting, I meant the core inflation index not the CPI.
We’ve been in a recession for the last seven years.
Great, so ignore core and only look at CPI, if that'll make you happy.
A lot of what’s mentioned in this article I found at other websites. The consumer and the government are heavily in debt and that’s the reason why the dollar is falling in value. A falling dollar means the US is getting poorer as a nation. Just look at the stagnant wage growth we’ve had for years. As far as the housing bubble being orchestrated by Greenspan; you’ll find that at other websites too. Sooner or later the country has to pay for living beyond its means. This could be the time.
This is a valid line of argument and I appreciate you sharing it. If I understand you correctly, you’re saying we use different stats today than in the past, this change was implemented by Clinton, and remains in place today. Do you have any links or resources to support this claim so I can save it in my research files?
What about cross-country comparisons. Frequently we see reports of the fastest growing countries. The US, while not in the lead, continues to have strong postive numbers. Have those international observers/reporters started using the new statistical formula? What do other countries use and how are we comparing apples to apples? I realize as to unemployement we use different methods than France for example, when we compare are we comparing what each country reports or using a single methodology so it’s really a fair compairison?
I don’t trust any statistics, but I do trust a standarized language. If we’re using the same methods and definitions, then I am comfortable comparing the present to the past and making a judgment about it. That’s why what you’ve suggested here concerns me. What was the impetus for changing the methods? What are the arguments in support of doing so?
I’m not participating in it.
Explain. The definition I’m aware of for recession is 2+ quarters of negative GDP growth.
The dollar value is dopping like a rock and the Federal Reserve is caught between a rock and a hard place. If it raises or lowers the lending rate there’s consequences to each action. The consumer is in the same fix as the government, both being broke, living hand to mouth with no savings to back him up during the hard times.
This is actually funny since this summer had 4.9pct growth lol
Selling short, are we, Kurt?
The problem with posting an economic prediction from a year ago is that it’s pretty easy to measure its accuracy. US economic growth has been robust for the past year and the Dow Jones is up by 2,000 points.
We are not in a mess. The economy is strong and performing very well.
We are not going to have a negative quarter till possibly the second quarter of next year.
It takes two down quarters to have a recession so it will be fourth quarter next year before it can be declared with certainty.
The Rats will not be able to crow about the bad economy.
Here’s one link to the 1998 changes: http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpigm02.htm
A truer gauge of the real inflation numbers was always the M3 - shadow stats does a reconstruction of it.
It depends on who’s doing the cross country comparisons. The World Bank uses their own calculation of each country’s CPI in their reports, other reports by other institutions may use the number reported by each country - you’d need to read the methodology. If you read about the World Bank IPC they are trying to continue comparing apples to apples; I’m not sure about anyone else.
In that case the real rate of inflation must be 18-20% instead of just 10%. //John Williams idiocy off
These guys crack me up thinking they know the real rate of inflation is in the double digits yet the entire bond market is oblivious.
Oh, and by the way, BUY GOLD!
I just got clearance from the tower to buy that new LCD television I've wanted for two years now. Two years ago it was $6,500, last year it was $5,000. I just found it on line for $3,000 delivered. All this means to the doomers is that my new Japanese TV proves we don't make nuthin' here no mo'.
I’d hate to see what the annualized drop works out to be.
Forget about the drop in price...was the milk pasteurized? You could be killing yourself, man.
Maybe a goldbug can do the math?
I hope so. I could use a good laugh.
Yes.
You could be killing yourself, man.
Reminds me of that old ELO song, Livin' Thing. LOL!
I just got clearance from the tower to buy that new LCD television
Sweet!
CPI does include oil/food in the GDP calculation.
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