Posted on 11/20/2007 6:37:06 AM PST by Aristotelian
Consumer demand for bandwidth could see the internet running out of capacity as early as 2010, a new study warns. US analyst firm Nemertes Research predicted a drastic slowdown as the network struggles to cope with the amount of data being carried on it.
Such gridlock would drastically affect how people use the web and could mean the next Google or YouTube simply doesn't get off the ground, it said.
The report said billions needed to be spent upgrading broadband networks.
It put the figure at around $137bn (£66bn) globally.
For users, the slowdown could see a return to the bad old days of dial-up, the report predicts.
Stifling innovation
"It may take more than one attempt to confirm an online purchase or it may take longer to download the latest video from YouTube," the report cited.
But it is the knock-on effect for new services that could be the real problem, report authors think.
"The next Amazon, Google or YouTube might not arise, not from a lack of user demand but because of insufficient infrastructure preventing applications and companies emerging," the report warned.
The demand for bandwidth-intensive applications shows no sign of abating.
Nearly 75% of US internet users watched an average of 158 minutes of online video and viewed more than 8.3bn video streams during May, according to research by measurement firm comScore.
The financial invested required to "bridge the gap" between demand and capacity would range from $42bn (£20bn) to $55bn (£27bn) in the US, Nemertes estimates.
The report is part-funded by the Internet Innovation Alliance (IIA) which campaigns for universal broadband in the US.
"We must take the necessary steps to build out network capacity or potentially face internet gridlock that could wreak havoc on internet services," said Larry Irving, co-chairman of the IIA.
Ugh! Could you imagine going backwards, technologically?
And the world is melting and the sky is falling....
I showed my wife how to internet shop. I’m sorry.
Horrors. This might even restrict the ability of spammers to fill your inbox with V*i*a*g*r*a ads.
CAPITALISM WILL FIND A WAY!...........Unless it’s dead, of course..............
I guess our only hope is for you to go broke! ;^)
The problem will be solved before it becomes one. All those new and upgrading subscribers will pump tons of money into upgrades, so as long as the web is profitable it will be built out.
Technology will keep up, and if ISPs are smart, they will start working to provide more bandwidth now.
</sarcasm>
Start -slaughtering- spammers, botnet operators, malware writers and distributors, etc. and start refusing packets from BAD PLACES, and the problem is solved, right now, without buying so much as a foot of fiber.
Here from the company press release:
The financial investment required to “bridge the gap” between demand and capacity ranges from $42 billion to $55 billion in the U.S., primarily to be spent on broadband access capacity; this is roughly 60-70 percent above and beyond the $72 billion service providers are already planning to invest. Required investment globally is estimated at $137 billion, again primarily in broadband access.
“This groundbreaking analysis identifies a critical issue facing the Internet – that we must take the necessary steps to build out network capacity or potentially face Internet gridlock that could wreak havoc on Internet services,” said Larry Irving, co-chairman of the Internet Innovation Alliance. “It’s important to note that even if we make the investment necessary between now and 2010, we still might not be prepared for the next killer application or new internet-dependent business like Google or YouTube. The Nemertes study is evidence the exaflood is coming.”
Voice and bandwidth-intensive applications such as streaming and interactive video, peer-to-peer file transfer and music downloads and file sharing are redefining the Internet. Nearly 75 percent of U.S. Internet users watched an average of 158 minutes of online video in May and viewed more than 8.3 billion video streams, according to research by comScore. Additionally, wireless devices such as cell phones, Blackberrys and gaming accessories provide consumers ever-increasing access to the Internet, exponentially accelerating consumption of Internet bandwidth according to the Nemertes study.
For the Full Report, go to http://www.nemertes.com/press_releases/user_demand_internet_could_outpace_network_capacity_2010
When there is a “daily commute” just to get to FreeRepublic, I’ll post my Opus!
Remember the days when the BBC was revered throughout the world as a source of truthful information?
Today you can't take anything it says at face value. It's become a propaganda machine. That's decadence.
Today anything coming from the BBC is received by the people of the world as Pravda was under the Soviets. And the reasons are pretty much the same.
Civilizations rise. Civilizations fall. Decadence augurs a fall.
Then activate all the dark fiber laid out in the medians of our highways during the Dot Com bubble.
Otherwise, this is just a ploy by the telecoms and ISPs to start charging extra fees.
Um. More users means more money to upgrade the system.
Also, more advanced electronics get cheaper with time. I don’t think this is happening.
Don’t worry, Al Gore will jump in to save the day. And win another Nobel prize for it.
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