(vanity) Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter

Self ^ | 11/11/07 | Kevmo

[Kevmo]

Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter

OK, so you’ve got a thousand dollars burning a hole in your pocket and you want to make a statement with it at the same time as getting 40X return on your “investment”, you want $40,000 for that $1000 bet, like Hillary did in her Pig Belly futures or whatever it was. You’re going to decide between putting it down on Hunter or Thompson over at Intrade because these are the 2 most conservative candidates in the race.
https://www.intrade.com/
Which one do you choose?

Let’s start with the guy who has 3 balls. He’s got courage in spades. He’s engaged enemy soldiers in Viet Nam when he was a LRRP ranger and he got a Bronze Star for his real bravery. His friend and supporter also has 3 balls, the guy who we all know as “the man who broke the sound barrier”, Chuck Yeager. While they’re campaigning in Iowa, all you have to do is ask Chuck to tell the story about how he and Bob Hoover were in Russia and got that chance to fly a YAK and Bob took it up gently and respectfully and flew it straight & level into the horizon… and then returned over the viewing stand flying upside down and basically causing the Russians to pee in their pants. After hearing this story or one of a million others, Hunter will take the podium and leverage that emotional courage language that Americans love, and they’ll all look at each other & nod, saying, “this is the guy who should be my president”.

Now let’s cover the guy who played a soldier in the movies. He was quite convincing when he was telling Jack Ryan of the CIA that he wouldn’t be able to get to the submarine because it involved flying in a helicopter, and the last time Jack was in a helicopter he spent 3 months recovering from the accident. It’s interesting and fun entertainment, but it is not real. While he and his friend are campaigning in Iowa, he will need to build his own emotional leverage with the audience, and this is not a Hollywood script.

Right now over at Intrade, Thompson futures contracts are trading at about 6%. There was a time when he had the lead and was trading at 35%, but over the last few weeks he has lost about 30 points. He had the spotlight shining on him as the most conservative guy with the best name recognition, while thousands of his supporters were crossing their fingers during the debates hoping he wouldn’t screw up.
https://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

Hunter futures contracts are at 0.1%. Over the last few weeks they have remained at 0.1%, with the volume staying put at 27778. That is the number to watch. All it takes is for that number to start moving. It means someone is buying Hunter’s contract at a very low price. Within a few weeks, that number will be history. Hunter has been campaigning on a shoestring budget and slowly gaining recognition in the polls, recently just coming in at 4%.
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28889/republicans_2008_giuliani_28_thompson_19

All he needs is one more percent. Hunter needs to get to 5% in the coming weeks in order to be invited to the Iowa debate by our friends at the Iowa GOP.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922644/posts
At that point, everyone will know he’s at 5% in the polls. His futures contracts at Intrade, if they’re still at 0.1, will have relentless upward pressure from bargain hunters, but by then it will be too late to buy in at that price.

Here’s where the decision gets made, why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter rather than Thompson. In order to get 40X return by investing in Thompson, you would have to buy his contract to win the whole kit & caboodle, the presidency, which is now trading at 2.5.

2008.PRES.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to win 2008 US Presidential Election

At $6, you could not get 40X return on the Fred.Nominee contract. If you bought it at $5, the best you could get is 20X return.

2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008

The forum at Intrade seems to waver between those who think Fred’s campaign is imploding and those who think it will rebound. But they have freewheeling discussions about the why and how that we have been missing here on Free Republic.
https://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1805.page

So your decision comes down to this: Is it more likely that Hunter will get 1% more exposure in national polls, and move up to 4 or 5% at Intrade or is it more likely that Thompson will win the presidency outright? Remember, this is the guy who had the spotlight shined on him as the conservative golden boy and lost 30 points at Intrade, and has been losing ground in the polls lately.

While his supporters are crossing their fingers hoping he doesn’t screw up, Hunter’s supporters are folding their hands in prayer hoping that he’ll just be himself.

Over the last few days, I’ve seen a couple of posts like this
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1925179/posts?page=284#284

According to Polls, Fred Thompson Foundering
Posted by Kevmo to SergeiRachmaninov On News/Activism 11/13/2007 1:51:29 PM PST · 284 of 536
It is a bitter time for those who have invested all their hopes with Fred and repressed all doubts. ...Still it is not much fun when you have chosen your candidate, put him on a pedestal, and gone to war for him, and then reality starts to batter you. I’ve already trod the path from hopeful about Fred, to disappointed, to angry in my disappointment. I really should do better at being gentle to those who are somewhere else along on that path.
***That is some amazing candor. I honestly do think that Hunter will not disappoint you in that way. He may not win the nomination due to lack of name recognition, but he is doing what he can about that. His character stands head & shoulders above the others in the race.

That is the emotional language of someone who has felt betrayed by his candidate. But the Hunter followers do not feel betrayed, they have circled the wagons and they are coming out fighting. That’s where you put your money down, where there is fight to the inner core, and the guy they’re fighting for is genuine.

All it takes is that one or two Freepers will copy this article and send it to their wealthy friend who did so well in the stock market during the dotcom boom, or won a thousand bucks at a beer drinking tournament or whatever. Then we’ll start to see that 27778 number trickle, then it will flood through relentlessly. And that will serve as a metaphor for the entire republican campaign, what has been a trickle of support will soon break through the floodgates in myriads of ways, whether it’s our grandmother sending in the $25 check to Hunter’s campaign
http://www.gohunter08.com
or Iowans asking if they could put up a sign on their front lawn or our grandchild folding her hands in prayer for this courageous man.

And then we’ll see Hunter smile.

[Hunterite]

“Ok, lets look at Hunter WITHOUT the assessment of the Club for Growth or the National Taxpayers union. This is from my previous post:”

You just copyed and pasted from Club for Growth again.

[fetal heart beats by 21st day]

"Wow thats a brilliant position. Instead of having perhaps 25 states outlaw abortion outright, saving the lives of millions, you are content on keeping RvW in tact. How do you think abortion will be outlawed and how do you think a President can even do that?I am beginning to think the pro life movement doesn’t really want to end abortion. Perhaps its become too big of a money making industry for them too." "the prolife moement?" Perhaps you have revealed more than you intended. We are not as gullible as you seem to think. It is very revealing to me that so many of you guys keep insisting that there are only 2 options toending this slaughter-the 2 you guys keep offering. There is at least one other way. Those of us who care about life, and have read Roe v. Wade (and the trash it is) see it as very glaring.

[Puddleglum]

Yup, the ‘military industrial complex’ has become a political cliche which has negative feelings attached.

Cliches oughtn't shield any federal branch from scrutiny into its spending. Sorry.

[normy]

Please tell me the solution then.

[kevkrom]

Over the last few weeks they have remained at 0.1%, with the volume staying put at 27778.

Nice understatement. It's been at 0.1 (dollars per share, not percent) since early July, not just "the last few weeks".

The volume looks to be total shares traded ever, not on a daily basis. Looking at the advanced graphing link, one can easily see that there has been no appreciable activity on the contract AT ALL since mid-October, and the trade price still remained constant at 0.1 even then.

I do note, however, that there now appear to be more (by about 7 to 8 percent) shares available today at 0.1 (the minimum trading price) than there were a couple of days ago, which means interest in Hunter is actually fading on the market, and that people are trying to dump shares if anyone will buy them.

[Earthdweller]

Here is my source to debunk the liberal talking points that Military/Industrial complex is the evil pig of our societies spending. We are becoming a social state, not a military one. All the other graphs you will find only cover the last few years or give a comparison to US defense spending vs that of other countries...hmmmm.

[kevkrom]

Only here for a sec but have you seen any of Fred's anti-gun senate bills?

There are none. GOA's "analysis" is a crock and a deception.

[John Valentine]

I too am “trying to make a difference” a POSITIVE difference. And as far as I am concerned, Duncan Hunter, while a good man, and acceptable to me as a nominee, is far from the most conservative candidate in the field, and he is a terrible campaigner. He is going absolutely nowhere.

The same thing is true of another man I respect and admire, Tom Tancredo.

The sooner these men drop out and endorse someone with a chance of winning, the greater their influence will actually be in the party and in the race.

Now, I’d like to ask you, but I don’t think you would like to answer, and I respect that, but I’m curious. If Tancredo and Hunter should both drop out, who from among the remaining field whould you think they would or should endorse?

[Earthdweller]

Your source just got deleted or it is the wrong page.

[Hunterite]

“You can even pull out the “no” vote on CAFTA, as I am against both NAFTA and CAFTA albeit for different reasons than those normally cited.”

Then Club for Growth will give your favorite boy a bad score too.

Is this all you can come up with?

NO on NAFTA
YES on No Child Left Behind
YES on Sarbanes-Oxley
YES on the 2003 Medicare Drug Benefit
NO on CAFTA
YES on 2005 Highway Bill
YES on the 527 bill (like most Republicans, he flip-flopped, having first voted
NO on McCain-Feingold)

What is No Child Left Behind?
What is Sarbanes-Oxley?
What is 2003 Medicare Drug Benefit?
What is 2005 Highway Bill?
What is 527 bill?
Everyone knows what McCain Feingold is.

You cut and paste it, its up to you to get into the details. Fun details too, finance bills are so exciting to go through with a fine tooth comb.

[Hunterite]

“Your source just got deleted or it is the wrong page.”

National Taxpayers Union? Its working for me.

[Hunterite]

“Cliches oughtn’t shield any federal branch from scrutiny into its spending. Sorry.”

Fine, you want House Armed Services Committee to cut military spending? Take it up with them, and Code Pink.

[Earthdweller]

This one...
http://www.heritage.org/Research/Budget/upload/83722_1.pdf";;

[Hunterite]

wasn’t me :)

[ejonesie22]

That’s a big leap there. I too like the idea of smaller government, but I also know we need to be at the tables of power to get there. That takes winning elections.

Despite our best wishes, we have to deal with being a minority voice in a Federal Republic.

To change the game we have to be the winners. Otherwise we are just those crazy folks bitching a lot...

[Kevmo]

Thanks for bumping the thread. I’ll be answering pings in the order they came in.