(vanity) Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter

Self ^ | 11/11/07 | Kevmo

[Delacon]

My take. Republicans will win with a mixed bag conservative in 08 or lose because the country still has a thing for big government. Its what got Bush elected and its simply doesn’t turn off enough people to Hillary or Obama. Its not Hunter’s time. I hope he takes it in 2012 or 2016.

[Kevmo]

Here are the new Intrade results after the debate.

For the first time there has been a measurable change for DUNCAN HUNTER, doubling in price and showing a major jump embedded in Iowa.Field with a 3.3 point jump.

Duncan Hunter Won the debate. Huckabee Lost.

And, since this is going to be controversial, I will point out that I’ve been logging onto several prior debate threads where I analyzed the changes in Intrade results from the debates, and usually before it was Huckabee who won.

2008 Republican Presidential Nominee
Old Price … New Price… Change

2008.GOP.NOM.GIULIANI 41.1 41.1 No chg
2008.GOP.NOM.ROMNEY 20.2 21.4 +1.2
2008.GOP.NOM.HUCKABEE 17.8 18.0 +0.2
2008.GOP.NOM.MCCAIN 9.2 9.2 No chg
2008.GOP.NOM.PAUL 5.0 6.0 +1.0
2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F) 5.1 5.0 -0.1
2008.GOP.NOM.HUNTER 0.1 0.2 +0.1

Winner of 2008 Republican Iowa Caucus

Old Price … New Price … Price Change
REP.IOWA.HUCKABEE
Mike Huckabee to Win 72.5 70.8 -1.7
REP.IOWA.ROMNEY
Mitt Romney to Win 25.1 25.1 No chg
REP.IOWA.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to Win 1.5 1.5 No chg
REP.IOWA.GIULIANI
Rudy Giuliani to Win 0.4 2.5 +2.1
REP.IOWA.MCCAIN
John McCain to Win 0.5 1.7 +1.2
REP.IOWA.FIELD
Field (any other individual) to Win 1.1 4.4 +3.3

The smart money really IS on Duncan Hunter.

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Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts

[Kevmo]

Posted as its own thread.

According to Intrade, the winner of today’s GOP debate was... Duncan Hunter.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1938773/posts

[Kevmo]

Here’s a snapshot from Intrade. There is evidence that Hunter is gaining ground in Iowa.

For the Iowa caucus, Thompson is at the bottom of the pack, Romney has regained the lead from Huckabee. Ron Paul and Hunter are both embedded together, so there’s no way of knowing if he’s gaining ground, but on the basis of the president.field contract moving 50% today, I’d say he’s probably at ~0.3 and Ron Paul is at ~4.8, which puts Hunter ahead of Thompson.

Caucus
REP.IOWA.HUCKABEE
Mike Huckabee to Win M 45.0 46.0 45.0 1690 +5.0
REP.IOWA.ROMNEY
Mitt Romney to Win M 40.2 54.9 50.0 1960 0
REP.IOWA.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to Win M 0.1 1.4 0.1 642 -1.4
REP.IOWA.MCCAIN
John McCain to Win M 0.6 4.4 0.2 860 -2.8
REP.IOWA.GIULIANI
Rudy Giuliani to Win M - 0.1 0.1 701 0

REP.IOWA.FIELD
Field (any other individual) to Win M 4.7 5.9 4.8 1384 +1.0

2008.PRES.FIELD
Field (any other candidate) to win 2008 US Presidential Election M 0.2 0.3 0.2 14910 +0.1

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According to Intrade, the winner of the December 12th GOP debate was... Duncan Hunter.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1938773/posts

Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts

In this Iowa poll Hunter is up 3% and even with Paul and Thompson.
http://www.wxyz.com/news/local/story.aspx?content_id=3481ef60-8195-46a9-af04-b87b907bcfdd
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