Posted on 11/14/2007 7:07:30 AM PST by Reaganesque
I realize everything can change fast in Iowa and New Hampshire, and some are rightly skeptical about the value of polling in a caucus state. I also recognize that some pollsters' methods of figuring out who's a "likely voter" are better than others.
But if I were a Romney guy, I'd be pretty pleased about the trends in those two primary states.
Romney's had a lead in the Hawkeye state for a while, but that lead seems to be growing, across several pollsters. Romney is up 16 on his nearest competitor (Huckabee) in Zogby, up 8 on his nearest competitor in ARG, up 23 on Rudy and Huck in University of Iowa, up 14 in Strategic Vision, up 7 in Rasmussen.
In New Hampshire, we see a similar dynamic. Romney is up 12 on Giuliani in the Globe/University of New Hampshire poll, up 11 on Giuliani in Marist, up 15 on Giuliani in Rasmussen, up 7 in ARG, up 9 in the previous Rasmussen, up 10 in St. Anselm.
When the Marist poll came out, I asked the Romney campaign what was driving that, and they responded, "we've been campaigning hard in New Hampshire, including three days there last week. Senator Judd Gregg's endorsement was certainly a boost for us. But while this particular poll may show us with a strong lead, we're going to continue to run in New Hampshire as if we were ten points behind."
Even the South Carolina numbers are starting to look better across several polls — he's leading the field at 29 percent, up 6 percentage points on Giuliani in ARG (okay, really, how is Fred Thompson getting 10 percent in South Carolina?), tied with Giuliani and one point behind Thompson in Winthrop/ETV, in a three-way tie for second and five points behind Thompson in InsiderAdvantage, leading the previous ARG by 3, and down 9 percent in Rasmussen, and even that's five percent higher than the previous poll by that organization.
Because we're seeing an effect in several states where there is advertising, and not just where Romney picked up a big endorsement (like Gregg), I suspect the ads are what is driving the Romney surge. I would also note that we've seen little, if any, change in Romney's national numbers during this time.
Don’t let those others bother you, there have been 4 or 5 topics alone today on Mitt.
The others can’t stand the fact that when long shot candidates got shaken out and people had to get behind a candidate, they’re choosing Romney.
Their boy Fred (who I was pulling for) has put little to no effort in this election hoping to run purely on name recognition.
As for the others, they have no name recognition or national support.
The best move for any of those candidates to make would be to get behind Romney and hopefully get the VP nomination from him, that way they stand a better chance down the road.
************************
Thank you for your comments, gjones77.
What’s driving the Romney “surge”? I’d say wishful thinking on the part of his supporters more than anything else.
I just want to say I don’t think Papasmurf is the x rated man he got confused with the (.com vs .org) we all know this happen many times to lure child when they type the wrong address and us adults do the same thing at times.
Sorry Papasmurf!
Imagine if you were talking about a drink:
I've been staying away from whiskey...
I like mah Sam Adams, but I need something with more bite...
I was starting to lean towards applejack, but
Those malt 40s really bang me...
Many people here seem like portraits of indecision.
Thank you.
Can we go back to bashing our un-favorite candidates now? LOL
Romney is the smartest of all the candidates on both sides.
He is spending money on advertising because he is smart. He has reasoned out that name recognition matters a great deal. He got to the table first to undo that problem. Also, take a close look at the ads that are going to come out. They will all say the same thing about their own guy. Everyone will wrap themselves in declarations of being pro gun, pro life, pro victory, anti taxes.
Think about that. Every single candidate will say the same thing about himself. They guy who got to the table first with those is the guy who will be remembered. Not until attack ads start is there any chance of undoing that, and given that the other candidates have to first introduce themselves before they can attack, the calendar really doesn’t leave much time left for that.
This man is running a brilliant campaign.
Slick Willard is a phony conservative. You’ve been had.
“I’ve seen stranger things. I’ve seen a lot of youtube video of Romney saying quite different things.”
This is the short version but it should give you an idea, if you want more Mitt video, just ask.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Elx3UWmyAY4
One thing for sure, if Mitt is our guy against Hillary, we will have the prettier candidate.
No, I can’t argue with his superior aesthetics nor the obvious hideousness, that is————— The Hildebeast. :)
Mit has conservative policies? His quotes on Gun Control, Abortion, critizizing Regan etc., could all have come out of the DNC playbook.
Neither Ross Perot nor Steve Forbes had been a governor. Likewise, while each of them was successful with his own company, neither of them had managed the multitude of groups that had to be made to work together for the Olympics to be successful. Mr. Romney's success has gone beyond just running his own company. His accomplishments may not be enough for him to win the nomination or the presidency, but he's done much more to position himself to be the right candidate than either of those others did.
Bill
I agree with you, I believe the more they see and get to know Mitt the better they will like him.
PLUS, it helps that Romney is super smart and charming, which goes a long way toward neutralizing the smarmy ‘gotcha’ attacks by the lib-loving national media.
Also, after 8 years of elementary press conferences by GWB, Romney will be a fresh of breath air.
Romney is also hitting all the right notes for conservative base —— on taxes, abortion, the war-on-terror, illegal immigration, appointing good judges — everything.
And it certainly helps that Romney’s family is one of the most handsome, photogenic and normal looking in the entire US of A — which also speaks highly as to what kind of personal character he has.
Romney hasn't paid me one cent.
Nor do I know anyone who has received anything from Romney, or anyone related to him.
Yet I find myself supporting his style, his mannerisms, and his campaign.
Does that make me "bought off" in your world.
See ya.
Wouldn't wanna be ya.
Oh dang!
I feel so .... so bought and paid for.
So used.
All that $$ Romney is sending me in the mail has just gone to my head.
Now I can't stop myself from voting for him!!
/sarc
~”Personally, I would prefer Romney/Huckabee. I’ve been very impressed with Huckabee. He’s seems to be a good man.”~
I agree that Huckabee would make a good veep. I think he’s too nanny-state to be at the top of the ticket, though.
His recent climb has been impressive.
~”The Romnoid, Rudy and/or McLoon on any part of the ticket will keep me home election day.”~
You’re gonna have a tough year...
~”It’s not ambition that’s the problem, it’s the personal motivation behind the ambition. Those who suspect Mitt of less than pure motives, have only their cynicism and assumptions to back up their accusations.”~
Well said.
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