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Posted on 11/14/2007 7:07:30 AM PST by Reaganesque
I realize everything can change fast in Iowa and New Hampshire, and some are rightly skeptical about the value of polling in a caucus state. I also recognize that some pollsters' methods of figuring out who's a "likely voter" are better than others.
But if I were a Romney guy, I'd be pretty pleased about the trends in those two primary states.
Romney's had a lead in the Hawkeye state for a while, but that lead seems to be growing, across several pollsters. Romney is up 16 on his nearest competitor (Huckabee) in Zogby, up 8 on his nearest competitor in ARG, up 23 on Rudy and Huck in University of Iowa, up 14 in Strategic Vision, up 7 in Rasmussen.
In New Hampshire, we see a similar dynamic. Romney is up 12 on Giuliani in the Globe/University of New Hampshire poll, up 11 on Giuliani in Marist, up 15 on Giuliani in Rasmussen, up 7 in ARG, up 9 in the previous Rasmussen, up 10 in St. Anselm.
When the Marist poll came out, I asked the Romney campaign what was driving that, and they responded, "we've been campaigning hard in New Hampshire, including three days there last week. Senator Judd Gregg's endorsement was certainly a boost for us. But while this particular poll may show us with a strong lead, we're going to continue to run in New Hampshire as if we were ten points behind."
Even the South Carolina numbers are starting to look better across several polls — he's leading the field at 29 percent, up 6 percentage points on Giuliani in ARG (okay, really, how is Fred Thompson getting 10 percent in South Carolina?), tied with Giuliani and one point behind Thompson in Winthrop/ETV, in a three-way tie for second and five points behind Thompson in InsiderAdvantage, leading the previous ARG by 3, and down 9 percent in Rasmussen, and even that's five percent higher than the previous poll by that organization.
Because we're seeing an effect in several states where there is advertising, and not just where Romney picked up a big endorsement (like Gregg), I suspect the ads are what is driving the Romney surge. I would also note that we've seen little, if any, change in Romney's national numbers during this time.
The money helps.
Ding ding ding ....got your answer.
I believe that there are a lot of republican likely voters who might like Fred, or Hunter, or Huckabee....anyone but Rootie, and these voters are starting to move towards the frontrunners and Mitt is probably picking up that support.
romney’s billions?
Wishful thinking?
Well, Duncan Hunter is certainly my first choice, but a Romney/Hunter ticket would have some appeal.
The front runner is a liberal piece of crap.
I agree
Thompson/Hunter ticket is the best we could ask for!!!!
Buying all the people you can buy helps. If there is a surge, could be just a wet dream.
You'd have to add in his friends from Bain to get to a billion.....
They might come in handy for some 527 counter attack to Soros and Clinton Inc.
You make sense. He is really working hard. He will probably win the nomination. His ads, his money, his organization, his looks, his virtue, all that.
Nevertheless, if enough conservatives trust him as little as I do, he will lose the election.
Thompson, although starting slow, is picking up speed and will run them all over.
The money helps
But the fact remains, Mitt Romney is outworking the rest of the field and the public in NH, IA, MI and SC has noticed this.
He is aggressively asking for people's votes on a personal level and no one else in the race has done the same to this degree.
This is the kind of work any candidate who wants to beat Hillary or whomever the Democrats nominate.
If we want to control the White House, we need to work hard to earn it and thus far, Mitt Romney is the one and only candidate on the Republican side that has shown a willingness put forward the kind of effort and energy critical to accomplishing this task.
This is the real reason Mitt is surging...
the x rated man is here!
This is very wide open, the fat lady is not even warming up yet.
Senator John Kerry was the opposite. - Tom
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