Posted on 11/09/2007 8:35:24 AM PST by ReveBM
Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Friday, November 9th
[SNIP]
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Mike Huckabee back in single digits and Ron Paul gaining another percentage point of support in the very unsettled race for the Republican Presidential Nomination. Rudy Giuliani remains on top with 23% support from Likely Republican Primary voters nationwide. Fred Thompson earns 16% of the vote followed by John McCain at 13% and Mitt Romney at 11%. Mike Huckabee is now the top pick for 9% while Ron Paul’s support has inched up to 6%. No other Republican tops 1% (see recent daily numbers).
The muddled state of the GOP race may reflect growing frustration with the available choices. Rudy Giuliani is now viewed favorably by just 63% of GOP voters, matching his lowest rating of the year. Mitt Romney, who has a growing lead in New Hampshire, is viewed favorably by 54% of Republican voters nationwide, his lowest rating in several months. Fred Thompson is viewed favorably by 53%, his lowest total ever.
Bucking the trend is John McCain, now viewed favorably by 60% of GOP voters, near the high end of his measured support this year. McCain, however, also boasts very high unfavorable ratings among GOP voters--36%. Only Ron Paul, at 43% has higher unfavorable in the GOP field. Twenty-two percent (22%) of Republicans have a favorable opinion of the Congressman from Texas. Finally, Mike Huckabee’s numbers remained stable this week at 46% favorable, but 29% don’t know enough to offer any opinion at all (see history of favorable ratings for the candidates among all voters and among Republican voters.)
[SNIP]
The problem with your “scientific poll” charts is that they include such clunkers as American Research Group (ARG) and Quinnipiac. Take those two biased surveys out and the results are astoundingly different, aren’t they?
How can this be? I’ve been told that Hunter’s support is 5%, based on the “fake money” market at Intrade (never mind that the “real money” market at Intrade has him at 0.1%).
***That’s because the Bid price for a few days was 2 and 3% with no takers.
Here’s another very recent poll showing Hunter at 4%.
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28889/republicans_2008_giuliani_28_thompson_19
Here’s one showing Fred at 6%, and discussing why.
http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1805.page
I will not sit out the election. If Rudy were nominated, I would have no one to vote for on the Presidential line. Unless a third party candidate represents my views, it would be an undervote. I will vote in all other races that I may that have a candidate I can support. My complaint would then become that the Republican party nominated someone that I morally could not support. In that case, I also suppose that I would have to resign from the party that has left me.
It's a long campaign this time around.
As would be the case if Rudy becomes president.
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 397 registered Republicans, conducted from Nov. 2 to Nov. 4, 2007. Margin of error is 5 per cent.
No effort to gauge the likelihood of voting, and you'll notice Hunter Duncan's 4% is still below the margin of error.
The charts that you are looking at on this thread are for Rasmussen only and are labeled as such. The other charts I post and which are on my profile page incorporate all poll results and use a 4-period moving average to round off the "clunkers". I use the same exact method that RealClearPolitics uses and it is a valid method. If you don't like the results of certain polls, don't look at them. If you don't like my charts, don't look at them either.
Most polls are notoriously bad.
I can't find a poll at that link.
Fine. Then ARG is notoriously WORSE THAN ALL THE OTHERS.
Carry on.
Seeing how this is a political discussion forum, I think we'll all reserve the right to look at whatever is posted and discuss it.
I fail to see how I demonstrated a "thin skin" in my response to your comments.
Is there a non-biased aggregation of the polling data that looks at past performance? That would tend to settle these kinds of disputes about one polling organization being better than the other.
That’s one thing prediction markets are better at — their only bias is whether someone can make money trading the futures contracts.
The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets
The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts
Posted on 11/08/2007 12:21:43 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum
Now, lets pray that Mitt does the dirty work of attacking Guiliani, while Fred takes the nomination.
LOL, not to Spiff!!! He LIVES to post a poll that may show Mitt ahead of Fred....
I WONDERED where the "Fred is DOOMED, DOOMED I TELL YA" chart was this morning...or did I miss the "ROMNEY HAS IT WON, EVERYONE ELSE MAY AS WELL JUST DROP OUT!" poll from the wonderful American Research Group?
Just a little reminder...
If your moral convictions are so high, how can you reconcile a non-vote that is a tacit vote for the bitch?
If you and the other {I can't vote for XXX, because they don't pass my purity test} sit out this election, please leave both the pubbie party and FR.
No whining, just leave and start your own blog that is absolutely pure and that you agree with 100% on all issues.
You will have a blog consisting of INGTAR.
Then you'll be uniting behind Hillary after the election... or else... and that's her outlook.
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