Posted on 11/04/2007 3:09:54 AM PST by Former Military Chick
To all those who said the “surge” in U.S. forces in Iraq was doomed to fail, a look at the latest results should be instructive, if not humbling.
Start with American military casualties. For October (36 Americans killed in action), they were the lowest for any month since February 2004, more than three years ago. U.S. casualties have now declined for five consecutive months even as American forces press the fight against al-Qaeda-in-Iraq terrorists and move out of their mega-bases to operate from security outposts in Iraqi neighborhoods. Steadily fewer American soldiers killed or wounded is a measure of a weaker enemy now in retreat – in fact, an enemy being defeated – plus dramatically increasing cooperation from Iraq's civilian population.
This latter point is vital, on both military and political grounds. As security expands and Iraqis consequently feel safer from retaliation by terrorists and sectarian extremists, their willingness to cooperate with U.S. and Iraqi government forces is growing accordingly. A major reason that al-Qaeda-in-Iraq terrorists are now losing is because Iraqi civilians are tipping off coalition forces about the locations of roadside bombs, arms caches and terrorist cells.
Army Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno, deputy to Iraq commander Gen. David Petraeus, gave these totals in a briefing last week for illegal arms, ammunition and explosives recovered in just the last two weeks of October: “Over 37,000 pounds of explosives, a thousand gallons of nitric acid used to make homemade explosives, over 2,000 artillery rounds and over 500 rockets, 136 assembled explosively formed penetrator IEDs (improvised explosive devices), along with 359 copper discs used to make more EFPs, and hundreds of rifles, grenades, anti-tank weapons and suicide vests.” Odierno attributed these arms captures largely to tips from local Iraqi civilians.
The death knell for any insurgency or terrorist movement sounds when the civilian population that these killers claim to represent begins turning them in to the security forces.
Next, consider the numbers and trend lines for Iraqi civilian deaths. This is a core indicator not only for moral and humanitarian reasons but because protecting Iraq's civilian population is a central goal of Gen. Petraeus' new counterinsurgency strategy. Iraqi civilian deaths are down more than 60 percent since their peak last December, from 3,000 that month to just over 700 in October. That's still too many, of course, but in a nation of 25 million people beset with sectarian violence and terrorism, a two-thirds drop in civilian deaths is a remarkable achievement.
As with U.S. casualties, the trend line for Iraqi civilian deaths is steadily declining, particularly since the surge offensives aimed at clearing and holding strategic population centers gained momentum this past summer.
Securing greater Baghdad against terrorist attacks is a surge priority. Results? The incidence of mass-casualty terrorist attacks (truck bombs, car bombs and the like) in Iraq's capital city is down 75 percent in recent months.
The second-ranking surge objective was pacifying Anbar province, formerly the heartland of the Sunni insurgency against U.S. forces and their Iraqi government allies. A year ago, Anbar was suffering more than 300 enemy attacks and hostile incidents per week. The number for the last week of October all across Anbar, Iraq's largest province, was fewer than 30.
Overall, the declining numbers of terrorist attacks and security incidents represent, as Gen. Odierno noted, “the longest continuous decline in attacks on record.”
Credit for these impressive, even stunning, gains in Iraq is irrefutably attributable, first, to the surge's 30,000 additional U.S. troops and Petraeus' new counterinsurgency strategy. Without these essential reinforcements and a wholly new strategy, the American mission in Iraq would be where it was last December – a failing effort staring at defeat.
Instead, al-Qaeda is on the run and losing, the main Shia militias are respecting a truce with coalition forces, and the Sunni tribal sheiks in Anbar and Diyala provinces and elsewhere have joined U.S. forces against al-Qaeda. Sectarian reconciliation, the ultimate political key to peace and security in Iraq, remains unfulfilled at the national level but is gaining ground locally under U.S. tutelage.
Acceptable levels of security and stability define the road out of Iraq for U.S. combat forces. The surge's success brings that day closer.
Caldwell is editor of the Insight section.
Credit for these impressive, even stunning, gains in Iraq is irrefutably attributable, first, to the surge's 30,000 additional U.S. troops and Petraeus' new counterinsurgency strategy. Without these essential reinforcements and a wholly new strategy, the American mission in Iraq would be where it was last December – a failing effort staring at defeat.
But...but...didn’t Harry Reid say we lost this war months ago?
Shame on Democrat politicians who have dishonored the sacrifice of our troops by calling their success a failure for cheap political gain.
we won.
Not yet.
As in Vietnam, out ability to win was never in doubt, only our determination to win.
Do you thing the throat slashers are laying low, hoping for a Rat victory next year?
More good news ping...please forgive any double pings too.
Double dittoes to that!! let’s see if any of the Dem presidential hopefuls are talking up the progress in Iraq on today’s talking head shows...
I doubt it, as I don’t think they are organized in such a way as to be able to implement such a sophisticated strategy.
Ahmed in Baghdad isn’t really part of a top-down controlled organization. He’s more often a fellow traveler going roughly the same direction.
Fyi..
Great post. Thanks
Our heroes have always been cowboys and soldiers!! Glad we have a real man in charge over there right now. This has got to be a real boost for the troops and their mission. I am sure the candidates that oppose the war will say, “We told you there were not enough troops on the ground and blame the number of deaths on early mismanagement and low troop numbers.”
We thank God everyday for these brave men and women (and their loved ones who support them) showing the world’s oppressed that the freedoms we enjoy in the USA are a gift from God and we will preserve them at all costs.
let’s see if any of the Dem presidential hopefuls are talking up the progress in Iraq on today’s talking head shows...
It would be hard for one of them to do so. All of them are on record condemning the war and, the old familiar, “we’ve lost” will hopefully follow them the rest of their lives.
Bumperoo!
God Bless our FINE Military, and ALL those who assist them!
Bump
More great news about victory!
Not 36 Americans KIA. At least 8 U.S. deaths in October were from automobile accidents in Iraq, diseases, suicides, heat stroke, etc.
In other words, we lost less than one good man per day to hostile attacks in Iraq in October...down from 4 per day in the May/June time-frame.
So far in November...sounds of crickets.
Al Qaeda is broken. Iraq is won.
My dear Iraq....my baby. I've believed in it all along. I believed before, but I knew for certain on their first election day, January 30, 2005. We just had to be patient and not get discouraged.
Now the Peace Train is coming and we're on the platform, waiting. We can hear it.
Hey, Code Pink and MoveOn. We wanted peace, too. Your way would not have brought peace. It would have brought unimaginable chaos.
We wanted to "end the war" too. But not by your method. That would not have ended the war. That would have prolonged it for an unforeseeable amount of time.
THIS is how you achieve peace and end the war, Code Pink, MoveOn, Democrats and all of you other cowards.
As for you, al Qaeda. You knocked down our towers, you bastards. And we knocked you down in return. That's the American way and don't you forget it.
Papers were loathe to print stories routinely seen here on FRWN positive to the war effort, but now that what we knew all along is undeniable, more and more papers are trying to cover their trails by printing ever so mildly positive stories.
These are the Summer Patriots! They continue to deserve our revulsion at their Copperhead behavior of earlier.
As for the anti-War crowd; they remain solidly mired in their own quagmire of ‘60s thought, and jingoism.
These leftovers and their progeny of today are true Quislings, deserving at some point, similar though somewhat less harsh (non-capital) treatment.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.