Posted on 10/31/2007 1:17:10 PM PDT by Plutarch
Thompson might still be hanging in there in national polls , but those trading money on the probability of Thompson becoming the nominee are increasingly bearish on his chances.
At one point, the probability of Thompson winning the GOP nomination was trading at 35% at Intrade . Over the last month his position has deteriorated, and in the last several days crumbled.
At Intrade Thompson is trading at 8.4%. At Iowa Electronic Markets 7.1%,
The validity of futures markets is sometimes questioned. No one was questioning them, however, when Fred was trading at 35% .
I was wondering myself, so I looked it up.
RROF_NOM stands for Republican Convention Rest of Field and represents all candidates not separately listed in this market.
Stuff like this is why Intrade has it all over IEM. IEM has been around for a long time, and has hardly changed a whit. It looks like some professor's website from the 1990's, because that's what it is.
Dang that LA Slimes! They better cut loose with that story because Willy Brown is bettin an bankin on Algore bein drafted he said the other day. "Al's the only one who can bring the warring factions of the "Demcrat" Party tagether," says Willy B. on T.V. (KRON Channel 4 SFO)
All the people I know come back from Vegas as millionaires.
Ok then, and thanks before I forget it, how come the “Rest of Field” fell straight down through the middle of the danged chart like someone falling through their own sphincter??? Huh??? (grin)
The investors see a two man race with the collapse of Fred Thompson (movement is from Oct 1 until now):
Rank | Name | Value | Movement |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Giuliani | 40.9 | +5.0 |
2 | Romney | 29.3 | +6.6 |
3 | Thompson | 8.4 | -16.2 |
4 | McCain | 7.1 | +2.1 |
5 | Paul | 7.0 | +0.6 |
6 | Huckabee | 5.7 | +2.6 |
7 | Hunter | 0.1 | E |
Tancredo | 0.1 | E | |
Brownback | | | |
T Thompson | | | |
Gilmore | | |
it always surprises me how people employed in the financial industry donate to ms. clinton. they seem to prefer controls to freedom.
Skeeter : “I’ve narrowed my policy issue interests considerably in the past few years to two or three - with illegal immigration at the top of the list.
So far Fred & Duncan are the ONLY GOP candidates with guts enough to speak unequivocally on the subject, and only Fred is within range.”
Often the less than desirable votes on immigration by Fred don’t get shown.
FRED THOMPSON ON IMMIGRATION
Voted in 1996 to continue chain migration
Voted to strip legal reforms from 1996 bill
Voted in favor of chain migration in 1996
oted for a foreign worker bill with no anti-fraud measures in 2000.
As Committee member, produced H-1B doubling bill in 1998
Voted in committee against including worker safeguards in H-1B bill in 1998
Voted to allow firms to lay off Americans to make room for foreign workers in 1998
Voted to grant amnesty to nearly one million illegal aliens from Nicaragua and Cuba in 1997
In 1996, removed higher fines for businesses which hire illegal aliens
Tried to kill voluntary pilot programs for workplace verification in 1996
http://profiles.numbersusa.com/improfile.php3?DistSend=TN&VIPID=743
I think many of them donate to Hillary not because they want her to win, but in the hope that if she DOES win she won’t storm and pillage their businesses.
No doubt about it. Fred has a good patter.
What he lacks are executive experience, energy, proven ability, and a record of accomplishment on immigration matters.
Hunter, on the other hand, although likely unelectable, has deeds to back up his mouth.
GWB was running unopposed in the primary.
It can be gamed, like anything else. I wouldn’t put it past a Soros type to do just that.
>>The validity of futures markets is sometimes questioned.
I wonder how much money it would take to move the market? In a thinly traded stock a wealthy person can change the price.
If this site is very influential, it might be important enough to influence. Romney and Guiliani have the most money to blow.
Maybe if he would take a No-Doz before his next appearance, his chances might surge upward. I have never seen such a lackluster, tired, monotone, dull character run before. The hoopla given to the man was undeserved. His wife would make a better candidate. Who cares what he says-—it takes forever for him to get it out...
True that...
Looks like a good time to buy some Fred.
But a month ago they were. And his “stock” has dropped.
If it drops, can it not go up again?
Like all those checks he’s bounced in the House?
That’s a knee-slapper, Pissant.
Whooptie-Frickin-Doo.
Probably. But the trend is down, down, down.
Fred has NOT caught fire. He's given it little effort. He still sounds slow, old, and tired. Nothing short of turning the clock back 30 years would restore his strength and vigor.
I'm beginning to think that he's really angling for a VP slot. It fits his style much better.
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