Posted on 10/27/2007 12:51:54 PM PDT by Chi-townChief
On October 22nd, Osama bin Laden admitted that al Qaeda had lost its war in Iraq. In an audiotape speech titled "Message to the people of Iraq," bin Laden complains of disunity and poor use of resources. He admits that al Qaeda made mistakes, and that all Sunni Arabs must unite to defeat the foreigners and Shia Moslems. What bin Laden is most upset about is the large number of Sunni Arab terrorists who have switched sides in Iraq. This has actually been going on for a while. Tribal leaders and warlords in the west (Anbar province) have been turning on terrorist groups, especially al Qaeda, for several years. While bin Laden appeals for unity, he shows only a superficial appreciation of what is actually going on in Iraq.
Bin Laden doesn't discuss how the Americans defeated him. It was done with data. Years of collecting data on the bad guys paid off. Month by month, the picture of the enemy became clearer. This was literally the case, with some of the intelligence software that created visual representations of what was known of the enemy, and how reliable it was. The picture was clear enough to maneuver key enemy factions into positions that make them easier to run down.
Saddam's henchmen, the main enemy, were no dummies. They were smart enough, and resourceful enough, to build a police state apparatus that kept Saddam in power for over three decades. However, for the last three years, that talent has been applied to keeping the henchmen alive and out of jail. But three years of fighting has reduced the original 100,000 or so core Saddam thugs, to a few thousand diehards. Three years ago, there were hundreds of thousands of allies and supporters from the Sunni minority (then, about five million people, now, less than half that), who wanted to be back in charge. Now the remaining Sunni Arabs just want to be left in peace. Thus the Sunni nationalists of in the Baghdad suburbs are shooting at, and turning in, their old allies from Saddams Baath party and secret police. This isn't easy for some of these guys, but it's seen as a matter of survival. While the fighting in and around Baghdad is officially about rooting out al Qaeda, and hard core terrorists, it's also about taking down the Baath party bankers and organizers who have been sustaining the bombers with cash, information and encouragement.
Bin Laden can't openly talk about any of this, because that would be admitting he had made a deal with the devil back in 2004, when al Qaeda and the Iraqi Sunni Arab terrorists united. The Baath party has always been secular. Not exactly anti-religion, but not something al Qaeda could openly embrace. Many of the Iraqi Sunni Arab terrorists are religious, but not religious enough for the al Qaeda hard core. And it's the hard liners that usually set the agenda. That's a fatal flaw with groups that depend on terrorism to keep the fight going. Cracking down on the hard core requires more clout and muscle than al Qaeda possesses these days. And that's another unspoken reason by bin Laden is singing the blues.
Bin Laden's latest audio recording brought forth a furious reaction from many of his followers. The main complaint was that only excerpts of the message were being reported on by the Arab media, and that if the entire message were put out there, the excerpts would not appear so damaging. The excerpts concentrated on bin Laden admitting mistakes, criticizing al Qaeda operations in Iraq and urging Islamic radicals to get their act together.
Al Qaeda is under a lot of pressure of late. In addition to defeat in Iraq, the organization is being battered in North Africa, South East Asia, Somalia, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Bin Laden has not got any good news to talk about, and that's what's really got his followers angry.
I think you’re right. Bin Laden is dead.
It would be too easy to prove he’s alive with a video in which he discusses current events in convincing detail. None of his videos in recent years are like that. They are all open to interpretation, like reading tea leaves.
As you say, why would he pass up the opportunity to thumb his nose at Bush? If he were alive, he wouldn’t.
But he’s not alive. He’s a thin layer of ash sandwiched between huge layers of collapsed rock.
Now that’s quite a conundrum!!!
Good point!!! One to be asked of every single democrat elected official, I don’t care if they’ve supported the “war on islamofascism” in the past...
Next day BUMP!
It is not widely known what he did, even here on FR.
He changed the strategy from hunting down terrorists to partnering with Iraqi neighborhoods who then got rid of the terrorists on their own.
Simple, bold, brilliant.
BUMP
Look for Harry Reid and his band of idiots to take credit for Petraeus’ confirmation in the same light he took credit for Limbaugh raising money.
There go the Dhimmicratic chances in the 2008 elections. Congressional approval near zero, the war in Iraq won. Everwhere Dhimmis rule in the U.S. life is worse and incompetence reigns. GOP takes Louisiana governship and almost take a seat in Masshole. Tell me on what basis do the Dhimmis expect to win.
I was referring to the election, not to the primaries. In the primary I will vote for the man I want. Given the strong possibility that the Republican will be Giuliani or Romney, this was my take on those two.A knee-jerk reaction to seeing the name Giuliani or Romney keeps one from actually understanding the sentences around those names.
UNLESS Bush takes care of business big time with Iran, the best we can hope for with this war is that whoever is the next president will respond to the inevitable major homeland attack effectively. Several of them, maybe even Giuliani, will probably treat it as a Crime Problem, at least at first, and will sick the DA and the Justice Department on the perps while we lose another city or two.
Just like the US and USSR would NEVER work together.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
The deal may have been long before that; if you’ll recall, in early ‘99, bin Laden declared war on the US and Britain on Saddam’s behalf.
The Surge has Worked and America has Won w/o the Rats....again!
Pray for W and Our Victorious Troops
Al Qaeda’s attacks have flatlined. Not just in Iraq. Israel. Somalia. Lebanon. Liberia. Libya. Egypt. The Philippines. Indonesia. Europe. The U.S. Jordan. Afghanistan.
They only managed 1 suicide attacker against Bhutto in Pakistan. Pakistan!
Some Taliban remain in Afghanistan. Some Ba’athists and Sunni/Shi’ia death squads remain in Iraq.
Time to mop up.
They're mopping up in Iraq. Every day. New arrests, new weapons cache discoveries. Most of this is done by the Iraqi Army with the coalition forces as back-up.
The Iraqis are onboard. They are ratting out the bad guys left and right.
Iraq is growing up quickly, right before our very eyes.
Hmm, dems, the MSM — CNN, NPR, PBS, the NY and LASlimes, et. al. are sure we lost. In fact they trumpet our failure day in and day out. Wow, who knew?
See my comment, via Col. Peter Mansoor. He knows his stuff.
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