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10 Businesses Facing Extinction in 10 Years
Entrepreneur ^ | September 19, 2007 | Geoff Williams

Posted on 10/04/2007 1:52:15 PM PDT by Lorianne

Determining which industries aren't long for this world may seem easy enough. But some types of businesses, such as telemarketing, are surprisingly hard to kill. And then again, other industries, probably the ones you're sad to see go, can't find a way to survive.

So start setting up your office pool, because here are our picks for 10 businesses facing extinction in 10 years.

RECORD STORES: Record stores are closing in, well, record numbers. One of the most prominent music retailers, Tower Records, shut down all 89 stores last year after concluding it couldn't withstand the onslaught of online music stores and chains like Wal-Mart, which can offer lower prices and sell other items to offset the smaller number of CDs being sold. Odds of survival in 10 years: Great, if you consider Wal-Mart a record store.

CAMERA FILM MANUFACTURING: This probably isn't the best business to get into right now. According to The Chicago Tribune, from May 2006 to May 2007, the volume of prints made from digital cameras grew by 34 percent. Film camera sales, meanwhile, fell by 49 percent, while digital cameras sales continued to grow--by 5 percent. Of American internet users, 70 percent own a digital camera; another survey shows that 70 percent of Canadians now use a digital camera. Odds of survival in 10 years: Some entrepreneurs who specialize in making camera film for amateur photographers could possibly make a living.

CROP DUSTERS: They'll be around in 10 years, but likely not in their present form. The average age of the typical crop duster is 60, the number of crop dusters is dwindling, and the profession can be dangerous. Just several weeks ago, an Arkansas crop dusting company was ordered to stop flying in Iowa after spraying farm workers with a fungicide; 36 farm hands in a cornfield had to be decontaminated by a hazardous materials crew. Odds of survival in 10 years: The type of crop dusting plane that chased after Cary Grant in North by Northwest will have almost certainly gone south. Farmers say that they'll always need crop dusters, even though new technologies have made them less important than in the past. But commercial airlines are increasingly taking business away from the small, independent crop dusters.

GAY BARS: As The Orlando Sentinel noted in a recent article, around the country gay bars have been going out of business as gay men and women have been gaining greater acceptance in society. What used to be a hangout for people who felt unwelcome elsewhere is becoming less necessary.

Odds of survival in 10 years: As with many industries, the very best of them will endure; the rest won't.

NEWSPAPERS: Some people thought they were through when radio and TV news came about. Even after the fax machine revolutionized offices, some people predicted that everyone would have their news faxed in, since that would be quicker than relying on a newspaper. But the numbers have been falling precipitously since the 1990s when the internet came on the scene. In the past year, the Audit Bureau of Circulations twice has posted drops averaging 2.1 and 2.8 percent over six-month periods. Newsrooms across the country have been hemorrhaging staff.

Odds of survival in 10 years: They won't disappear; they'll be on the internet. We don't recommend startups investing a lot of money into a printing press plant.

PAY PHONES: In 1997, there were more than 2 million pay phones in the U.S.; now there are approximately half as many. There are probably always going to be certain places like airports and hotels that offer pay phones, as long as there are people who don't own or can't afford cell phones. Because phone kiosks on the streets are a favorite for drug dealers, who don't want to have their own numbers tapped and tracked, cities are shedding them.

Odds of survival in 10 years: They'll be around, but won't be anything to call home about.

USED BOOKSTORES: They've been closing fast, and those that are still open are relying on what's making them obsolete: the internet. A used bookstore used to be the place to find that beloved, out-of-print children's book you used to read 17 times a day until your little sister flushed it down the toilet. Now you just type that title in a search engine and order it within minutes. Odds of survival in 10 years: Some of them will still be eking out an existence, but the handwriting is on the wall.

PIGGY BANKS: You may chuckle, but as we continue gravitating toward a paperless society, it's not difficult to imagine a day when piggy banks no longer exist.

Odds of survival in 10 years: Sure, they'll probably still be a few around--in antique shops.

TELEMARKETING: The good news for people who hate telemarketing calls is that the industry may finally be dying; the bad news is that it may take a while. Telemarketing has been hit hard by the national Do-Not Call list that was established five years ago, and sales have been stagnant, but the industry still managed to bring in $393 billion in revenue last year. Some of this is due to clever marketing. This includes holding raffles at shopping malls; when you sign your information, you agree to accept calls from the company running the contest and its partners. Cell phones are exempt from automated telemarketing calls, but not from individuals calling. Then there are occasional windows of opportunity: The national Do-Not Call list is set to expire in 2008, unless you remember to register again.

Odds of survival in 10 years: They'll be here. Humbled, more impotent, but probably still here.

COIN-OPERATED ARCADES: With Nintendo Wii, casual gaming online and the Xbox 360, the video game arcade industry is thriving, but not the standalone brick-and-mortar arcades. For those of you who thought arcades were already dead, they still exist--at movie theaters, miniature golf courses and other touristy spots--but it seems only a matter of time before they vanish from the landscape. Ten years ago, there were 10,000 arcades in the nation, and now the number is close to 3,000, according to the American Amusement Machine Association. Revenue from arcade game units brought in $866 million last year, which sounds good until you consider that in 1994, the industry was pocketing $2.3 billion and that the profits are only still high because it costs so much to play a game.

Odds of survival in 10 years: Game over.


TOPICS: Business/Economy
KEYWORDS: buggywhipmakers; businesses; genx; jobs; predictions; topten
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To: TexasRepublic
I think used book stores will outlive some of the other businesses.

Yes, but there will be fewer of them, and you'll order over the 'net, just like you do new (and used) books now from Amazon, B&N, etc.

61 posted on 10/04/2007 3:20:17 PM PDT by El Gato ("The Second Amendment is the RESET button of the United States Constitution." -- Doug McKay)
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To: LS

I grew up in arcades during their glory days running from the early 80s through the early 90s. Shame to see ‘em go, but they’ve been effectively dead since Killer Instinct :(


62 posted on 10/04/2007 3:20:56 PM PDT by ECM (Government is a make-work program for lawyers.)
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To: dfwgator
What about movie theaters, now that home systems are getting closer to replicating the in-theater experience without all of the drawbacks

As long as studios make movies available to theatres first, they will always exist. Besides, it's safer for a woman to go to the movies with a guy for a first or second date, than to be at one person's home or another to watch a DVD. Also, some things are really better when viewed by a group. Laughing out loud at a romantic comedy is always more fun with a theatre crowd!

63 posted on 10/04/2007 3:21:52 PM PDT by hunter112 (Change will happen when very good men are forced to do very bad things.)
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To: Lorianne

I actually needed a payphone last week... Could not find one anywhere. I ended up asking someone if I could use their cell phone.


64 posted on 10/04/2007 3:22:58 PM PDT by TriGirl (Lurking for 7 years!!!!!)
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To: LS
I used to love taking my boy to the arcades, where we would play “Killer Instinct” and “Mortal Kombat.” It’s not the same if there isn’t a crowd yelling “FINISH HIM!”

Ahhh, yes. I remember when Street Fighter Alpha first came out. There's nothing like having a single-file line of strangers all waiting for their turns to get whipped by me and Ryu...good times...

I never would've pegged you as an MK player!

65 posted on 10/04/2007 3:23:34 PM PDT by Future Snake Eater (Finally home.)
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To: Lorianne
COIN-OPERATED ARCADES:

The demise of the arcade is a tragedy, and the near disappearance of the pinball machine manufacturers that supply them is too.

Video games suck. They have always sucked and will always suck.

Pinball rules!


66 posted on 10/04/2007 3:26:34 PM PDT by Fresh Wind (Visualize the Clintons in jail.)
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To: Lorianne

Newspapers will be around. As long as they still make Sunday Mornings, and as long as we are still using toilets to do number two, they’ll be making newspapers. Liberal newspapers? There will be a big shakeout.


67 posted on 10/04/2007 3:26:43 PM PDT by RinaseaofDs
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To: jrestrepo
Don’t get me wrong, businesses disappear all the time, but very few disappear completely.

Quite true, you can still buy a brand new buggy whip, so someone is still making them. (Although these days, some may not ever see a hind end .... of a horse that is).

68 posted on 10/04/2007 3:28:07 PM PDT by El Gato ("The Second Amendment is the RESET button of the United States Constitution." -- Doug McKay)
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To: weegee
Gay bars will remain. It isn’t about acceptance. They want to hook up with likeminded people, not drink with someone all night and no prospect of sex.

Internet dating has threatened the bar as the "meet market" for all kinds of folks. I see many have converted into a 'sports bar' type of format in order to adapt to the loss.

69 posted on 10/04/2007 3:28:21 PM PDT by hunter112 (Change will happen when very good men are forced to do very bad things.)
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To: El Gato
(Although these days, some may not ever see a hind end .... of a horse that is).

If Hillary is elected, all Americans will be seeing such for at least four years.

70 posted on 10/04/2007 3:31:26 PM PDT by dirtboy (Ron Paul - shrimp pimp rock schlockster surrender crustacean)
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To: discostu
And car dealerships should never be replaced by online, not because they’re so awesome but because you should always test drive a car before buying it.

Car dealerships are being supplemented by the Internet. My lady just bought a used Acura from a dealer just outside of our area by using Cars.com. She was able to compare a large number of vehicles quickly and efficiently, and find a good deal on a great vehicle. The previous owner left a deposit slip inside the center console compartment, and I was able to find the owner's phone number!

71 posted on 10/04/2007 3:32:01 PM PDT by hunter112 (Change will happen when very good men are forced to do very bad things.)
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To: Lorianne

I like Used Bookstores. They are a wonderful way to spend a few hours. I still haven’t been able to find Mr. Rabbit’s (or Bunny’s) Cook and Color Book. It was a coloring book with all sorts of recipes that I got from the grocery in the late ‘70s. Stupid me let my high school’s child development class borrow it and forgot to get it back. It was never sent to me even though my name and address were inside. :(


72 posted on 10/04/2007 3:32:06 PM PDT by HungarianGypsy
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To: hunter112

I found my current car with the internet, but there was still all the necessity of the car dealership, I had to drive it and my mechanic had to give it the once over. There will never be a substitute for those steps, and especially on new cars I don’t see a way to get them without a dealer, I doubt the manufacturer is going to be willing to send a new car to me to test drive and give to the mechanic (hell yes new cars should go to your mechanic, some lemon indicators do stick out to the trained eye) on my own to then decide to buy or give back.


73 posted on 10/04/2007 3:38:03 PM PDT by discostu (indecision may or may not be my biggest problem)
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To: Jaysun
Hey, watchit! I'm a librarian. ;)

:P

Sauron

74 posted on 10/04/2007 3:43:53 PM PDT by sauron ("Truth is hate to those who hate Truth" --unknown)
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To: qam1; ItsOurTimeNow; PresbyRev; Fraulein; StoneColdGOP; Clemenza; m18436572; InShanghai; xrp; ...

Xer Ping

Ping list for the discussion of the politics and social (and sometimes nostalgic) aspects that directly effects Generation Reagan / Generation-X (Those born from 1965-1981) including all the spending previous generations are doing that Gen-X and Y will end up paying for.

Freep mail me to be added or dropped. See my home page for details and previous articles.  

75 posted on 10/04/2007 3:43:55 PM PDT by qam1 (There's been a huge party. All plates and the bottles are empty, all that's left is the bill to pay)
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To: Lorianne

- Global Warming Advocate


76 posted on 10/04/2007 3:45:06 PM PDT by qam1 (There's been a huge party. All plates and the bottles are empty, all that's left is the bill to pay)
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To: cajungirl

Engineering schools. They’re all peopled by South Asians now anyway.


77 posted on 10/04/2007 3:45:41 PM PDT by ArtyFO (I love to smoke cigars when I adjust artillery fire at the moonbat loonery.)
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To: sauron

Agree about LIBRARIES but how about TRAVEL AGENTS? They’re fading away fast too.


78 posted on 10/04/2007 3:48:03 PM PDT by weef
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To: Lorianne

TYPEWRITER REPAIR


79 posted on 10/04/2007 3:48:17 PM PDT by BunnySlippers (Buy a Mac ...)
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To: sauron
What about LIBRARIES?

See the earlier remarks about gay bars.

80 posted on 10/04/2007 3:55:39 PM PDT by HIDEK6
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