Posted on 10/04/2007 9:38:23 AM PDT by TitansAFC
If Rudy Giuliani wins the Republican nomination and a third party campaign is backed by Christian conservative leaders, 27% of Republican voters say they’d vote for the third party option rather than Giuliani. A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that a three-way race with Hillary Clinton would end up with the former First Lady getting 46% of the vote, Giuliani with 30% and the third-party option picking up 14%. In head-to-head match-ups with Clinton, Giuliani is much more competitive.
Over this past weekend, several Christian conservative leaders indicated they might back a pro-life, third-party, candidate if Giuliani wins the nomination.
The latest poll highlights the potential challenges for Giuliani, but the numbers must be considered in context. A generic third-party candidate may attract 14% of the vote in the abstract at this time. However, if a specific candidate is chosen, that person would likely attract less support due to a variety of factors. Almost all third party candidates poll higher earlier in a campaign and their numbers diminish as election day approaches. Ultimately, of course, some Republicans would have to face the question of whether to vote for Giuliani or help elect a Democrat.
The telephone survey found that 17% of Republicans believe it’s Very Likely conservative leaders would back a Pro-Life candidate if Giuliani is nominated. Another 32% believe it is Somewhat Likely. Among all voters, 22% think a third party approach is Very Likely and another 33% say it’s Somewhat Likely.
Most Republican voters consider themselves Pro-Life on the issue of Abortion. Most Democrats and Unaffiliated Voters are Pro-Choice.
The bigger question for Giuliani might be how this possible challenge from the right might affect perceptions of his electability. Currently, Giuliani is seen as the most electable Republican candidate which helps overcome concerns that some have about his ideology. A survey conducted earlier this month found that 72% of Republicans think Giuliani is at least Somewhat Likely to win the White House if nominated. However, the current survey finds that number falling to 58% if Christian conservatives back a third-party option.
With a third-party option on the table, only 18% of Republicans believe Giuliani would be Very Likely to win the election if nominated. That’s down from 31% in a two-way race.
Among all voters, 49% say Giuliani is at least Somewhat Likely to win a two-way match-up. That falls to 43% with a third party candidate in the mix.
Electability is a crucial issue for Giuliani because two-thirds of Republican voters seen him as politically moderate or liberal. That is a challenge unto itself in a political party where most primary voters consider themselves politically conservative. Fred Thompson is currently viewed as the most conservative candidate in the field.
Three of the last four Presidential elections have seen a candidate win with less than 50% of the total votes cast. If Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic Presidential nomination, there is a very reasonable possibility that neither major party candidate would top the 50% mark in Election 2008. With such a scenario, third party candidates on either side of the political spectrum could play a significant role by peeling away one or two percentage points of the vote.
Clinton is currently leading the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination, but her victory is not inevitable. Among Republicans, Thompson and Giuliani lead in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
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Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.
Rasmussen Reports’ Election 2006 coverage has been praised for its accuracy and reliability. Michael Barone, Senior Writer for U.S. News & World Report and co-author of The Almanac of American Politics, mentions, “One clear lesson from the Republican victory of 2004 and the Democratic victory of 2006 is that the best place to look for polls that are spot on is RasmussenReports.com." And University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato states, “In election campaigns, I’ve learned to look for the Rasmussen results. In my experience, they are right on the money. There is no question Rasmussen produces some of the most accurate and reliable polls in the country today.”
Rasmussen Reports was also the nation's most accurate polling firm during the 2004 Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.
During both Election 2004 and Election 2006, RasmussenReports.com was the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
Since you're buying that, perhaps you would be interested in a bridge I have for sale.
You don't suppose that the country clubbers who run the Republic Party are counting on that, do you? You don't suppose that they know they can run a Liberal for the Presidency because those geldings who used to call themselves Conservatives will grovel before anyone who will promise to save them from Big, Mean Momma, do you?
This fight is not over. Those who haven't the belly for it, leave it to those who do.
>>”I would much rather take my chances with SCOTUS appointees from Rudy than from Hillary.”
Since you’re buying that, perhaps you would be interested in a bridge I have for sale.<<
Can you explain that comment? Are you suggesting that there is an equal probability of a conservative SCOTUS appointment from Rudy as from Hillary?
“then you will get a worse one (HILLARY) by default”
Could be.
But if Mrs. Clinton wins the presidency, the party of life remains to fight another day. The Republican Party can and will oppose her and her liberal policies. Opposition to the first President Clinton brought about a conservative Republican congressional majority, and tempered the remaining years of Mr. Clinton's presidency.
If Mr. Giuliani wins the presidency, there will be no more party of life, only two parties of murder and slaughter. We’ve seen that Mr. Bush was able to pass many liberal policies through a Republican-controlled Congress. It’s tough for a party in Congress to oppose the policies of a president of its own party.
I have no doubt that if Mr. Giuliani were unfortunately elected president, he would take the Republican Party down the path of death and destruction, and then we’d merely have two liberal parties instead of one liberal party and one not-so-liberal party.
No thanks.
I’m not voting for a baby murderer.
sitetest
.
No. There are only two reasons. Not a "variety". Confusion (stupidty, ignorance, etc) or Cowardice. Take your pick.
Like it or not, that is the group that ultimately decides elections.
But even confused or cowards don't want confused or cowardly leaders.
That's not saying a conservative can't win, only that a conservative also needs moderate support to win.
Which is exactly how Ronald Reagan won in a landslide. He backed the working man. Today, the GOP CFR clan appears to be the enemy of that man and woman.
Let me tell you what will happen if the pro life voters all move to a third party.
The GOP will be forced to move further to the center to pick up your lost votes and you and the pro life movement will be consigned to political obscurity for decades. The left will never move closer to you position and the right will now be dominated by center left and right voters who will not believe you’re issue to be critical.
If this is what you consider to be a successful long term strategy, you deserve to be in the political wasteland.
B.S. I do NOT ever vote for liberals and I don’t care what letter appears after the candidate’s name. If I can’t find a suitable conservative to vote for in the general, I skip the race. I finished with “the lesser of two evils” along time ago. When both are evil, neither gets my vote.
You may be voting for Hillary or for a liberal Republican, but I won’t be. But, yes, it’s Hillary if Giuliani is the nominee, and I’ve been telling anyone who would listen that because Rudy = 3rd party = President Rodham.
“Let me tell you what will happen if the pro life voters all move to a third party.
“The GOP will be forced to move further to the center to pick up your lost votes and you and the pro life movement will be consigned to political obscurity for decades.”
That’s one possible outcome.
But that wasn’t what happened when the low-tax conservatives abandoned Mr. Bush I in 1992.
The other outcome is that when Mr. Giuliani fails to score 40% of the vote in the general election, folks in the Republican Party who would like to run for the presidency will understand that being a pro-abort makes it impossible to actually win the election.
Just as Mr. Bush I’s defeat in 1992 after violating his “no new taxes” pledge confirmed every serious candidate thereafter as a fervent tax-cutter, Mr. Giuliani’s defeat in 2008 (God, please do not let this moral monster be the nominee) would likely confirm Republican presidential candidates long into the future as fervent pro-lifers.
The alternative to voting third party for social conservatives is to become the blacks of the Republican Party. They can count on our votes without ever taking our agenda seriously.
No thanks.
I won't vote for a baby murderer.
sitetest
I doubt it, the prolife movement is large enough that they have to come to us. Yes we can not win with out the reps but they can nto win with out us either.
Reagan won because Anderson split the dem vote with Carter.
GWB won because Nader calved off enough of Gore's votes to make a difference in several key states.
In other words in two elections the left split their vote with a third party candidate and ushered in the Reagan and Bush revolutions...exactly what you're planning on doing, in reverse, but neither do you see or are willing to admit it.
Is it just me or have IQ's on FR dropped precipitously?
All of your caveats apply to my original question, so answer it.
What were you smoking during the 2000 primaries? McCain was the running as moderate and attack Christian conservatives. McCain was the one trying to lure independents to vote for him because conservatives were backing Bush. Bush was viewed as the conservative in the 2000 primaries.
“Reagan won because Anderson split the dem vote with Carter.”
Although Mr. Anderson certainly added to Mr. Reagan’s margin of victory in 1980, Mr. Reagan actually won an outright majority of the vote in 1980. Even if Mr. Carter had received every single one of Mr. Anderson’s votes, Mr. Reagan would have still won the election.
sitetest
If five judges are confirmed like Scalia and Thomas, it would be overturned. There may be four votes or overturn it now.
It most certainly won't be if Giuliani becomes President, however.
I don't think I get your point? Bush is pro life, probably the most pro life president we've had in 40 years. Reagan was pro life. Bush 41 was at least not pro choice, probably just wanted to be "reasonable". Getting a pro life president isn't like getting a pro life king. If Bush could get a few Judges appointed, we would already have Roe turned over. Getting Rudy will definitely be no help. What you have is people voting for Bush for prez, and voting Dem for congress because they bring home the pork. Most elections are within the margin of error unless they are in "carved out" districts. If a abortion was voted on as a national referendum, it may not be turned over, but there would be severe restrictions on it.
Republicans like Spector, Chafe, Snow,and a few others is the problem. We had the power, we just didn't use it.
I thought FR hated the GOP, calls them “country clubbers”?
FR members have refused to fund them for years, and left the GOP over illegal immigration, right?
Also, many conservatives lost in 06 because FR, conservative media, talkies, and commentators encouraged voters to PUNISH the GOP for spending too much, and amnesty legislation.
The GOP has been blamed here for the individual perverts who have shown up in Congress over the years also.
So don’t give me the “don’t break up the party”, excuse. Plenty here could care less about the GOP.
The GOP is not responsible for RG running for President, and only the primary voters who nominate him will be responsible.
And who knows if that will even happen? Its very, very, early, FT has not even debated yet.
I've never voted for a pro-abortionist and will never do so . . . no matter what party they claim.
GOP fanboys can whine about me "giving the election to the Dems" or whatever mantra they choose. Know this though: if the GOP puts a pro-abortionist on the 2008 ballot for President, I - and many others - will know the party is lost and vote accordingly.
That said, I know a person's personal beliefs can change over time. If Rudy turns out to be a pro-lifer, God bless him.
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