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Fear and Loathing in Iran [Iran and Syria snookered in buying air defense systems from Russia]
Strategy Page ^ | September 28, 2007

Posted on 09/29/2007 8:09:04 AM PDT by John Jorsett

Information coming out of Iran indicates that the military there is very dismayed at how ineffective new Russian anti-aircraft systems were during the Israeli September 6th air strike on a Syrian weapons development facility near the Iraqi border. Syria and Iran have both bought billions of dollars worth of the latest Russian anti-aircraft missile systems. Apparently the Israelis were able to blind these systems electronically. Syria isn't saying anything, nor are the Israelis, but Iranian officers are complaining openly that they have been had by the Russians. The Iranians bought Russian equipment based on assurances that the gear would detect and shoot down Israeli warplanes.

Over the Summer Russia delivered the first dozen or so (of 50) Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft systems to Syria. It is believed that some of these systems are going to Iran, if only because Iran is apparently paying for them. Russia made the sale to Syria, despite $13.4 billion still owned for past purchases. Russia forgave most (73 percent) of the old debt, and is taking some of the balance in goods. In return, Syria is able to buy $400 million worth of anti-aircraft systems, mainly the self-propelled Pantsir-S1. This is a mobile system, each vehicle carries radar, two 30mm cannon and twelve Tunguska missiles. The missiles have a twenty kilometer range, the radar a 30 kilometer range. The missile can hit targets at up to 26,000 feet. The 30mm cannon is effective up to 10,000 feet. The vehicle carrying all this weighs 20 tons and has a crew of three.

By selling to Syria, even via the use of an enormous discount, Russia gets another foreign customer for their new anti-aircraft systems. Previously, fifty of these systems had been sold to the United Arab Emirates. Each foreign sales make it easier to sell these systems to other foreign customers. But the poor performance in Syria makes it much more difficult to sell any Russian air defense systems (which have a spotty track record in any event.)

As a practical matter, Syria is too poor to ever pay back the forgiven debt, so forgiving the debt recognizes that reality. However, because Syria has been a client state of Iran for decades, the assertions that Iran put up the money, and will get many of the systems, carry a lot of weight. Iran would most likely use these systems to protect high value targets, like nuclear weapons research facilities. However, if anyone should get photos of these systems in Iran, there would be quite an uproar.

The Iranians fear an Israeli air strike against their nuclear weapons development facilities. It was thought the new Russian missiles and radars would persuade the Israelis to stay away. But now the raid on Syria looks like a dress rehearsal for one a little further east. Since Iranian leaders have openly called for the destruction of Israel, one can't deny the Israelis a little self-defense. Thus the cries and whispers in Iranian military headquarters. A lot of this is leaking on to Farsi language email and message boards. There is much angst and unhappiness.


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; Russia; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: airstrikes; iran; russianmilitary; sept62007; syria
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To: yankeesdoodle
"They’re just in the weapons business, and their products are crap, but they hype hype hype, and catch a 13th century arab sucker every now and again..."

They catch quite a few Americans too.

41 posted on 09/29/2007 9:25:26 AM PDT by VaBthang4 ("He Who Watches Over Israel Will Neither Slumber Nor Sleep")
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To: finnman69
Syria got OWNED by 70’s era F-15s and ECM countermeasures

70's. I don't think so. The airframe, but that is about it.

42 posted on 09/29/2007 9:30:19 AM PDT by AndyJackson
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To: Mrs.Z
Not only do they not perform as advertised...


all the systems were covered with bright red LEAD BASED paint!

I am sure the Russians will be happy to refund all of their money.

43 posted on 09/29/2007 9:30:48 AM PDT by dearolddad
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To: John Jorsett

For the most part there were no sales. They were simply broke, both large and small companies.

We made one sale for cash.


44 posted on 09/29/2007 9:35:45 AM PDT by bert (K.E. N.P. +12 . Moveon is not us...... Moveon is the enemy)
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To: Polynikes

Now that’s funny!


45 posted on 09/29/2007 9:39:19 AM PDT by live+let_live
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To: John Jorsett
Iran and Syria are scared s**tless. They know now these things don’t work and if Israel can bomb Syria the way they did, the US Navy is going to have a field day in Iran. They did not know what was going on till the first big boom went off. No notice at all. Way to go Israel.
46 posted on 09/29/2007 9:42:05 AM PDT by RetiredArmy (America's stupidity is overshadowed only by its pure stupidity.)
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To: Mygirlsmom

My wife asked me if it was working.
I told her, “Sure it is, see that little red light? It’s blinking.”

I’m sure Imindeedanutjob from Iran heard the same line.


47 posted on 09/29/2007 9:42:19 AM PDT by live+let_live
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To: shove_it

I can’t believe these idiot’s bought something without witnessing demonstrations. But I’m glad they did.


48 posted on 09/29/2007 9:44:10 AM PDT by my right
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To: John Jorsett
Apparently the Israelis were able to blind these systems electronically.

I don't know if puchasing an extended warranty is appropriate in this case but they should have at least bargained for a 6 month money back guarantee.....

49 posted on 09/29/2007 9:51:15 AM PDT by Hot Tabasco (I could be Agent "HT")
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To: John Jorsett; LS; Dog; jeffers

We don’t have enough information.

For instance, we don’t know if the Israelis blinded the Syrian air defences *electronically* (which would be catastrophic for Russia’s technical reputation), or if Israel used its new stealth UCAV plus some planted F15 drop tanks, or if Israel used commandos on the ground to somehow disable Syria’s air defenses, or if Israel used the Mossad to simply make a phone call to each air defense site in Syria saying that they were ordered to turn off their systems for a “Test” at such and such a time.

“This is Bassher Assad’s Office, you will turn off your radar at 6 AM.”

The method used against Syria matters in regard to the viability of Iran’s air defenses.


50 posted on 09/29/2007 9:54:06 AM PDT by Southack (Media Bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: Southack
Israel used its new stealth UCAV plus some planted F15 drop tanks, or if Israel used commandos on the ground to somehow disable Syria’s air defenses, or if Israel used the Mossad to simply make a phone call to each air defense site in Syria saying that they were ordered to turn off their systems for a “Test” at such and such a time.

I think the turn off idea is unlikely, not because it wouldn't have worked, but because Syria would have been able to immediately figure out how they did it. As such they would have been doing many stories about catching the traitors or how the sneaky Jooz sabotaged their new radar stations. The silence from Iran and Syria says that their radars were operating and just didn't make so much as a bleep.

The amount of fear in the middle east says that this is a worst case situation for Vlad and the Towel heads.
51 posted on 09/29/2007 10:02:14 AM PDT by GonzoGOP (There are millions of paranoid people in the world and they are all out to get me.)
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To: John Jorsett
fifty of these systems had been sold to the United Arab Emirates

You can be sure that a week after this junk was sold to the UAE that American engineers were taking one of these systems apart and examining it.

52 posted on 09/29/2007 10:02:48 AM PDT by Larry381
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To: GonzoGOP
“Looks to me like the boys in the mosque bought the wrong kind of missile for the job they needed doing. So sad too bad.”

- Yes, I was thinking that a missile defense system which had a radar range of 30km. would just be able to detect a mach 2 jet before it was on top of them. The Arabs seem to think that buying lots and lots of crap is better than buying one good systems for the same price. It was the same with Saddam. He had hundreds of Russian supplied tanks which looked great during military parades but when it came to the showdown the Abrams stood outside their range and destroyed them by the dozen without a single loss.

53 posted on 09/29/2007 10:06:02 AM PDT by finnigan2
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To: John Jorsett

I just hope their SAM’s operate as bad as reported.If a shooting war does break out between the U.S. and Iran it should be a shooting gallery of exploding targets.

Hopefully one for the good guys.


54 posted on 09/29/2007 10:38:42 AM PDT by puppypusher (The world is going to the dogs.)
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To: small voice in the wilderness; John Jorsett
Pantsir-S1 self-propelled mobile system, each vehicle carries radar, two 30mm cannon and twelve Tunguska missiles. The missiles have a twenty kilometer range, the radar a 30 kilometer range. The missile can hit targets at up to 26,000 feet. The 30mm cannon is effective up to 10,000 feet. The vehicle carrying all this weighs 20 tons and has a crew of three.

Hep me out over here, please. This sounds to me more like a tactical anti-aircraft system, that fills in any gaps left by SAM Batteries. It also sounds particularly vulnerable to NOE missions. Russki doctrine used to be to have dense belts of short-range radar-directed 23, 37, and 57 MM in quick firing mobile mounts, which were pretty effective, even acquiring targets visually, the targets being driven to them by having to evade the SAMs and their longer-range radar. Directed by former Luftwaffe FLAK people from the DDR, the system was pretty damned effective in VietNam ... in reality it's own updated slanty-eyed version of the WWII Kammhuber Line.

So I reckon my question is, "What happened to the Syrian SAMs?" Isn't it logical to assume that we jammed up the SAM radar, leaving this Pantload System or whatever it is, to take on a mission that it was not designed to handle alone?

55 posted on 09/29/2007 10:55:45 AM PDT by Zerodown (Draft Petraeus. Let's win this one.)
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To: John Jorsett

Gee why didn’t allah warn them? And these morons want to rule the world.

This ‘great’ allah they talk about sure is ineffective. Muslim forces always seem to lose. Hey maybe you guys should switch. The Christian God is not a loser like your mooooon god’ette.


56 posted on 09/29/2007 11:08:05 AM PDT by free_life
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To: Southack; Cap Huff; jeffers
I've mentioned this to Cap....I have this hunch the target of this Sept 6 raid....wasn't nuke material...it was to test the Syrian air defense system..

I can't shake this feeling this was a dry run for a takedown of Iran...

57 posted on 09/29/2007 5:29:47 PM PDT by Dog
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To: live+let_live

I remember reading about a device like that. It emits sounds that imitate a rodent in distress. One guy who lived in tropical Asia tried it out. Cleared out the rodents but attracted cobras.


58 posted on 09/29/2007 5:42:51 PM PDT by PLMerite ("Unarmed, one can only flee from Evil. But Evil isn't overcome by fleeing from it." Jeff Cooper)
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To: nuconvert

And the Wheeler article said that US Planes were hovering on the Syria Iraq border. My guess is it was AWACS blinding the radar.


59 posted on 09/29/2007 5:45:06 PM PDT by golfisnr1 (Democrats are like roaches - hard to get rid of.)
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To: Blogger
“This was to extreme of a failure not to be suspect.”

I don’t buy the idea that the Russians purposely sent inoperable systems.

The ineffectiveness of the Russian systems was not surprising when you consider the following:

- Israeli training/efficiency has always Provo far superior to Syrian training/efficiency
- Airborne ECM, possibly in the form of Navy EA6-B’s along the Med coast and Syrian/Iraqi border conducting SOJ
- The Russian radar systems that made the mistake of transmitting could have easily been silenced by ARM’s, especially considering the very limited range of the Russian SAM’s
- Given the limited range of the Russian SAM’s and the limited number of systems reportedly delivered to Syria so far, the Israelis were probably able to find safe corridors where the SAM’s did not overlap

60 posted on 09/29/2007 5:47:42 PM PDT by ryan71 (I refuse to label anything I post, "sarcasm".)
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