Silence In Syria, Panic In Iran

To The Point News ^ | 19 September, 2007 | Dr. Jack Wheeler

[Salem]

One of India's top ranking generals assigned to liaise with the Iranian military recently returned to New Delhi from several days in Tehran - in a state of complete amazement.

"Everyone in the government and military can only talk of one thing," he reports.  "No matter who I talked to, all they could do was ask me, over and over again, ‘Do you think the Americans will attack us?' ‘When will the Americans attack us?' ‘Will the Americans attack us in a joint operation with the Israelis?' How massive will the attack be?' on and on, endlessly.  The Iranians are in a state of total panic."

And that was before September 6.  Since then, it's panic-squared in Tehran.  The mullahs are freaking out in fear.  Why?  Because of the silence in Syria.

On September 6, Israeli Air Force F-15 and F-16s conducted a devastating attack on targets deep inside Syria near the city of Dayr az-Zawr.  Israel's military censors have muzzled the Israeli media, enforcing an extraordinary silence about the identity of the targets.  Massive speculation in the world press has followed, such as Brett Stephens' Osirak II? in yesterday's (9/18) Wall St. Journal.

Stephens and most everyone else have missed the real story.  It is not Israel's silence that "speaks volumes" as he claims, but Syria's.  Why would the Syrian government be so tight-lipped about an act of war perpetrated on their soil?

The first half of the answer lies in this story that appeared in the Israeli media last month (8/13):  Syria's Antiaircraft System Most Advanced In World.  Syria has gone on a profligate buying spree, spending vast sums on Russian systems, "considered the cutting edge in aircraft interception technology."

Syria now "possesses the most crowded antiaircraft system in the world," with "more than 200 antiaircraft batteries of different types,"  some of which are so new that they have been installed in Syria "before being introduced into Russian operation service."

While you're digesting that, take a look at the map of Syria:



Notice how far away Dayr az-Zawr is from Israel.  An F15/16 attack there is not a tiptoe across the border, but a deep, deep penetration of Syrian airspace.  And guess what happened with the Russian super-hyper-sophisticated cutting edge antiaircraft missile batteries when that penetration took place on September 6^th.

Nothing.

El blanko.  Silence.  The systems didn't even light up, gave no indication whatever of any detection of enemy aircraft invading Syrian airspace, zip, zero, nada.  The Israelis (with a little techie assistance from us) blinded the Russkie antiaircraft systems so completely the Syrians didn't even know they were blinded.

Now you see why the Syrians have been scared speechless.  They thought they were protected - at enormous expense - only to discover they are defenseless.  As in naked.

Thus the Great Iranian Freak-Out - for this means Iran is just as nakedly defenseless as Syria.   I can tell you that there are a lot of folks in the Kirya (IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv) and the Pentagon right now who are really enjoying the mullahs' predicament.  Let's face it:  scaring the terror masters in Tehran out of their wits is fun.

It's so much fun, in fact, that an attack destroying Iran's nuclear facilities and the Revolutionary Guard command/control centers has been delayed, so that France (under new management) can get in on the fun too. 

On Sunday (9/16), Sarkozy's foreign minister Bernard Kouchner announced that "France should prepare for the possibility of war over Iran's nuclear program."

All of this has caused Tehran to respond with maniacal threats.  On Monday (9/17), a government website proclaimed that "600 Shihab-3 missiles" will be fired at targets in Israel in response to an attack upon Iran by the US/Israel.  This was followed by Iranian deputy air force chief Gen. Mohammad Alavi announcing today (9/19) that "we will attack their (Israeli) territory with our fighter bombers as a response to any attack."

A sure sign of panic is to make a threat that everyone knows is a bluff.  So our and Tel Aviv's response to Iranian bluster is a thank-you-for-sharing yawn and a laugh.  Few things rattle the mullahs' cages more than a yawn and a laugh.

Yet no matter how much fun this sport with the mullahs is, it is also deadly serious.  The pressure build-up on Iran is getting enormous.  Something is going to blow and soon.  The hope is that the blow-up will be internal, that the regime will implode from within.

But make no mistake:  an all-out full regime take-out air assault upon Iran is coming if that hope doesn't materialize within the next 60 to 90 days.  The Sept. 6 attack on Syria was the shot across Iran's bow.

So - what was attacked near Dayr az-Zawr?  It's possible it was North Korean "nuclear material" recently shipped to Syria, i.e., stuff to make radioactively "dirty" warheads, but nothing to make a real nuke with as the Norks don't have real nukes (see Why North Korea's Nuke Test Is Such Good News, October 2006).

Another possibility is it was to take out a stockpile of long-range Zilzal surface-to-surface missiles recently shipped from Iran for an attack on Israel.

A third is it was a hit on the stockpile of Saddam's chemical/bio weapons snuck out of Iraq and into Syria for safekeeping before the US invasion of April 2003.

But the identity of the target is not the story - for the primary point of the attack was not to destroy that target.  It was to shut down Syria's Russian air defense system during the attack.  Doing so made the attack an incredible success.

Syria is shamed and silent.  Iran is freaking out in panic.  Defenseless enemies are fun.

[arthurus]

President Mrs. Bill will send them immediately over. Mr. Bill set the precedent for that and he will be there, too.

[Shqipo]

>>>Iranian deputy air force chief Gen. Mohammad Alavi announcing today (9/19) that “we will attack their (Israeli) territory with our fighter bombers as a response to any attack.”<<<
—That would be some achievement, as they’d have to cross our Air Force to do it. Not gonna happen. Outstanding article.

[shield]

I thought he’d gone to a meeting in NK soon after this bombing?

[Mat_Helm]

bmp.

[txhurl]

It pains me to tell you he's still 98.6o . Fitzcarraldo rounded up photos of his itinerary this week, and he is unfortunately still with us.

Sorry for your un-loss :)

[shield]

Yes, our President does....but soooo do the Israelis’... these terror organizations thought after last yrs war...the Israelis’ had lost it....now look, they kicked the $hit out of Syria...[word is it was a joint op...a little more than pentagon techie help ;o)]

[AFreeBird]

The problem is that the Russian’s best isn’t very good. Russia has always gone for quantity over quality

And oddly enough the AK-47 is very reliable, even in the most extreme of environments.

[Shaun_MD]

I was waiting for it and you delivered!

[Fitzy_888]

Obviously, something so audacious occurred that they’ve gone to ground and the same in Iran. Why no cover stories or serious condemnations. So, Israel and the US don’t fear the truth, but maybe acknowledge that it’s better it not be known for a decade or more.

I still thing the Russian got caught doing something elicit within Syria. That’s the only reputation that would be sparred in this way...because the cold war is over, right? Serious implications if the answer is wrong.

I just wonder if the was a “training accident while on maneuvers.” In other words, if a Russian contingent was liquidated as a matter of coarse -it’s not in anyone’s interest that it be known.

[Joan Kerrey]

Folks, it’s very possible that the simplist part of Syrian training was overlooked. Before using the system it must be plugged into the power source. DUH

[Fitzy_888]

Obviously, something so audacious occurred that they’ve gone to ground and the same in Iran. Why no cover stories or serious condemnations. So, Israel and the US don’t fear the truth, but maybe acknowledge that it’s better it not be known for a decade or more.

I still think the Russian got caught doing something elicit within Syria. That’s the only reputation that would be sparred in this way...because the cold war is over, right? I said, right? Serious implications if the answer is wrong.

I just wonder if the was a “training accident while on maneuvers.” In other words, if a Russian contingent was liquidated as a matter of coarse -it’s not in anyone’s interest that it be known.

[Boundless]

> Other than that, I see nothing from him in the
> media since before the incursion.

I wrote that originally, and only just now saw your
replies, apparently to someone who quoted it.

Thanks for sightings. It’s truly weird to see the
Basher play-acting business-as-usual after the
“strike, what strike?”.

[Enchante]

Wow, how did that loser end up with such a hot wife? Oh, right, he’s been sitting on a vast corrupt fortune from Papa Assad ever since he was a baby.

[DoughtyOne]

I don’t believe that has been revealed, or touched on.

It’s not a bad question. Russia does seem to follow almost futalistic reasoning at times. They have much more in common with us than they do Muslims and the Chinese.

It is a source of consternation for me.

[mad_as_he$$]

I posted that early last week to many disbelivers.

[mad_as_he$$]

Sorry but we were no where near any of this. I have it on knowledgeable sources. The closest we came was testing material taken by the Israeli commando’s from Syrian soil.

[mad_as_he$$]

Israel has their own jamming and AWACS. They do not need us.

[Charles Martel]

Folks, it’s very possible that the simplist part of Syrian training was overlooked. Before using the system it must be plugged into the power source. DUH

Heh... the curse of the poorly-translated operating instructions. :-)

[Charles Martel]

Wow, how did that loser end up with such a hot wife? Oh, right, he’s been sitting on a vast corrupt fortune from Papa Assad ever since he was a baby.

And here I thought it was his exotic, "Zippy the Pinhead" physical appearance that was the secret to his allure. ;-)

[Tennessean4Bush]

I think the silence is Assad meditating on the realization that he bet it all on the wrong horse.