Posted on 09/11/2007 9:22:37 AM PDT by Kuksool
If Democrat Mark Warner jumps into the Virginia Senate race for 2008, he will start out with a large lead over two Republicans expected to campaign for the job.
In a match-up of former Virginia Governors, a Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds Warner leading Jim Gilmore by twenty percentage points, 54% to 34%. Warner also starts the season with a comfortable lead over Virginia Congressman Tom Davis. The Rasmussen Reports poll shows Warner attracting 57% of the vote while Davis earns 30%.
In 2008, Virginia voters will select a new face to replace the retiring Republican Senator John Warner. The retiring Republican Senator is not related to the Democratic Governor who might seek to replace him.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
What about George Allen Jr?
As "great" as Ollie might be, I don't think he wants to run. And he could never carry the state.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Pretty sad VA probably will have 2 liberal Democrat senators starting in 2009. One silver lining to a Demo winning the presidency I suppose is that if she/he falters then the Dems might lose some ground in 2010, and maybe they can knock off Webb in 2012.
Really sad state of things when even VA, which has not gone Democrat for president since 1964, would elect Hillary if the election were held today. Especially with the Dems showing themselves quite openly to be the party of defeat and weakness with these Gen Petraeus hearings.
As far as Giuliani goes, weren’t there some polls showing him able to win PA and NJ just a few months ago?? Those days seem long gone. If he can’t even take VA there is no chance he will win those other states. Granted this is just one poll, 14 months out. We could see things turn around. But if more polls like this come out I fear it will just feed GOP pessimism.
We don’t need Mark Warner.
Warner’s popularity will drop when Kaine starts pushing gun control this next legislative session.
“But . . . but . . . Tom Davis can wiiiiiin.”
This makes my point about Davis, don’t it ?
Gilmore is better statewide ID but is polling poorly. Davis is unknown to the rest of the state. Polls are this point are strictly name ID. I am amazed at the free pass given to Marky Mark. Warner raised taxes but people are not angry with him. Unless the GOP nominee runs an aggressive campaign, the Va Senate race is a likely Dem pickup.
BTW, Survey USA has Webb at 48 Approval / 42 Disapproval.
With NRSC short on cash these days, I would not be surprised the party blows the Va Senate race off and instead focus on protecting Sununu and the open Senate seats in NE and ID.
Not really.
It proves that Mark Warner is well-liked, although it’s not clear whether his support is all that deep. Given how well-known Gilmore is and how strongly he’s run in past races, one would expect him to poll stronger. By contrast, Tom Davis isn’t well-known outside his Congressional district.
Also, it’s not a given that Mark Warner will run. State Democrats want him to return to the Governorship.
So, who should the GOP nominee be? Jim Gilmore if Mark Warner does not run, Tom Davis if Warner does run.
If we don’t ruthlessly try to hold or go after some seats next year, there is substantial risk we could drop from 49 to 45 seats on just the 4 most likely to fall:
CO (Allard open)
NE (Hagel open — if Kerrey runs or an ugly GOP primary)
NH (Sununu — if Shaheen runs)
VA (Warner open — if Marky Mark runs)
Add to this, 4 more seriously at risk for us that could drop us to our lowest figure since before the 1980 elections (41):
AK (Stevens)
KY (McConnell)
ME (Collins)
NM (Domenici)
And an additional 2 potentially at risk (which could drop us to 39), the lowest in 32 years.
MN (Coleman)
OR (Smith)
Why aren’t we targeting AR (Pryor), Huckabee should do something positive for a change. How about DE (Biden, who does weekly George Allenesque gaffes, often deliberate) ? IL (Durbin), who deserves a substantial challenger. IA (Harkin) needs to be a top target. LA (Landrieu). MI (Levin). MT (Baucus). NJ (Lautenberg). RI (Reed — though definitely the longest of long shots). SD (Johnson). WV (Rockefeller) ?
And dumping Graham in SC in the primary should be a high priority. The rodents already consider him one of theirs.
The rodents aren’t hesistating to go in and win on our territory, and we need to go and attack them on theirs. They’ve still got 1970s era rodents all over the place that we need to take out, and we can’t even recruit serious challengers.
I said before, it’s almost like we don’t really want to win. Won’t that be a fine mess if we get Fred across the finish line, and he has Jerry Ford/Carter-era numbers in the Senate ? That will be less than useless, and we won’t be able to get anything done.
Davis if we want to commit complete seppaku in this race. Then we’ll be giving VA the NJ treatment. We keep lowering the bar, and the rodents will be waltzing into contests unthinkable just a few years ago.
WAY TO EARLY...
If Marky Mark decides not to run, we should definitely go with the more conservative Jim Gilmore.
By the way, what is seppaku?
Collins and Smith will likely lose to Democrats next year. Lautenberg and Reed are in safe liberal states, so those seats stay. What Dem seats can we win, and who can we run?
Seppaku = Japanese ritual suicide.
You’re right that Tom Davis, who is running behind Gilmore in this poll, is not as well known statewide as Gilmore. Once the conservative voters outside Tom Davis’s Northern VA bailiwick learn what kind of “Republican” Davis is (the liberal kind), he’ll do even worse.
Collins and Smith losing aren’t necessarily givens. ME is technically the most GOP New England state at this time, and she has more than a fighting chance against moonbat Allen. Gordon Smith has no substantial name challenger, although it may end up House Speaker Merkley. I’d still give him majority odds to hold it. The question is whether Sizemore will try to harm him in a GOP primary.
Lautenberg has had high disapprovals, so if we can claim to be serious about challenging Kerry in MA, where there is no GOP, we can certainly challenge a senile de facto placeholder where there is still a party (and 6 of 13 House members).
What upsets should we try for ?
Huckabee needs to challenge Pryor in AR.
Bill Lee or Terry Spence need to challenge Biden in DE.
Mark Kirk (RINO, I know) or Shimkus should challenge Durbin in IL.
Steve King against Harkin in IA (which looks likely).
Kennedy against Landrieu in LA.
Terri Lynn Land or Candice Miller against Levin in MI.
Dennis Rehberg against Baucus in MT.
Laffey against Reed in RI (and keep him high-profile enough to run for Carcieri’s open seat in 2010).
Rounds against Johnson in SD.
Betty Ireland (who has announced she isn’t running for a 2nd term as Sec of State) or Shelley Capito against Rockefeller in WV.
If we can’t step up with some of these names, we will demonstrate that we don’t have the fire in the belly, nor the maturity to reclaim our majority. It’s disgraceful we’d allow an anti-American rodent majority to extend their reign of error. I mean, seriously, what will it take for us to recruit top-notch challengers ? Another 9/11 ? By then, it will be too late.
“Collins and Smith will likely lose to Democrats next year.”
“What Dem seats can we win, and who can we run?”
DJ already listed other seats we should try to pick up. Harkin in IA and Rockefeller in WV may have overstayed their welcome, and Lautenberg is old and may be vulnerable. If Levin runs for reelection, we should just keep our powder dry in Michigan, but if he retires we should be quite competitive there.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.