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Collins and Smith losing aren’t necessarily givens. ME is technically the most GOP New England state at this time, and she has more than a fighting chance against moonbat Allen. Gordon Smith has no substantial name challenger, although it may end up House Speaker Merkley. I’d still give him majority odds to hold it. The question is whether Sizemore will try to harm him in a GOP primary.

Lautenberg has had high disapprovals, so if we can claim to be serious about challenging Kerry in MA, where there is no GOP, we can certainly challenge a senile de facto placeholder where there is still a party (and 6 of 13 House members).

What upsets should we try for ?

Huckabee needs to challenge Pryor in AR.
Bill Lee or Terry Spence need to challenge Biden in DE.
Mark Kirk (RINO, I know) or Shimkus should challenge Durbin in IL.
Steve King against Harkin in IA (which looks likely).
Kennedy against Landrieu in LA.
Terri Lynn Land or Candice Miller against Levin in MI.
Dennis Rehberg against Baucus in MT.
Laffey against Reed in RI (and keep him high-profile enough to run for Carcieri’s open seat in 2010).
Rounds against Johnson in SD.
Betty Ireland (who has announced she isn’t running for a 2nd term as Sec of State) or Shelley Capito against Rockefeller in WV.

If we can’t step up with some of these names, we will demonstrate that we don’t have the fire in the belly, nor the maturity to reclaim our majority. It’s disgraceful we’d allow an anti-American rodent majority to extend their reign of error. I mean, seriously, what will it take for us to recruit top-notch challengers ? Another 9/11 ? By then, it will be too late.

“Collins and Smith will likely lose to Democrats next year.”

President Bush got 47.2% in Oregon and 44.6% in Maine. Smith is relatively moderate and is well liked in his home state, and Collins is a downright liberal in the Maine mold. You’re right that they would have probably both lost in 2006, but they aren’t running in 2006. If 2008 is like 2006, then we might as well save our money for 2008, because we’re going down to 40 Senate seats.

“What Dem seats can we win, and who can we run?”

I think Tim Johnson of SD and Mary Landrieu of LA are the two most vulnerable Senators of the 2008 cycle of either party. We should run Gov. Mike Rounds in SD, who would be a strong favorite in the general. In LA, it looks like state treasurer John Kennedy, a social conservative who just switched to the GOP, will give us our best shot at the seat given that Congressman Charles Boustany has declared that he will not run for the Senate.

DJ already listed other seats we should try to pick up. Harkin in IA and Rockefeller in WV may have overstayed their welcome, and Lautenberg is old and may be vulnerable. If Levin runs for reelection, we should just keep our powder dry in Michigan, but if he retires we should be quite competitive there.