Atlantic Special Tropical Disturbance Statement

National Hurricane Center ^ | 7 September AD 2007 | Forecaster Knabb

[lightman]

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 505 PM EDT FRI SEP 07 2007

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST HAS NOT YET IDENTIFIED A WELL-DEFINED CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. THE AIRCRAFT WILL CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE U.S. SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED THIS EVENING.

[lightman]

Accuweather.com has been sounding the alarm since Wednesday about the potential for this disturbance to blossom into a category 1 or category 2 hurricane, making landfall somewhere along North Carolina on Sunday.

[lightman]

Ping.

[saganite]

Weather channel today says tropical depression or maybe a tropicla storm. Hope some of it makes it’s way to Western NC. We can use the rain.

[Nasty McPhilthy]

Won’t be the first time. Won’t be the last time either.

Rest easy ‘cause folks out there know what to do.

[Man50D]

Special Tropical Disturbance Statement

Does this imply there is a Normal Tropical Disturbance Statement? ;O)

[sageb1]

Anyone know why janetjanet’s post on this earlier was pulled? I couldn’t figure it out.

[lightman]

Rest easy ‘cause folks out there know what to do.

Anyone within 50 miles of the coast ought to be paying close attention to the tropical storm weather from June through October.

What makes this one a little different is that the system hasn't yet turned into a named tropical storm, yet could make landfall on the Carolinas as a hurricane in 48 hours. Not as much advance notice as what many folks are used to.

[southernnorthcarolina]

HERE AT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WE ISSUE BULLETINS IN ALL CAPS EVEN WHEN THERE IS NOTHING TO SAY. BECAUSE WE CAN.

JUST BECAUSE NOTHING’S HAPPENED YET DOESN’T MEAN IT WON’T, YA KNOW? I MEAN, JUST ABOUT ANY TIME YOU COULD HAVE, OH, WE DUNNO, WIND AND RAIN AND MAYBE EVEN SOME WAVES AND STUFF.

WE AT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL ISSUE ANOTHER BULLETIN IF CONDITIONS WARRENT IT. OF COURSE, WE’LL ISSUE ANOTHER BULLETIN IF CONDITIONS DON’T WARRENT IT, TOO.

AT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, WE JUST LOVE TO HEAR OURSELVES TALK. ESPECIALLY IN ALL CAPS.

[lightman]

Yes, the all caps are annoying, but with possibly less than 48 hours until this storm hits the outer banks I didn’t want to take the time to find the cap to lower case converter site and run it through.

If you want to do that be my guest.

[steveegg]

Original thread here. Since it beat janet's thread, hers got locked.

[southernnorthcarolina]

Yes, the all caps are annoying, but with possibly less than 48 hours until this storm hits the outer banks I didn’t want to take the time to find the cap to lower case converter site and run it through.

My criticism was not directed toward you for not converting the message to lower case, but rather toward the NHC for using that format. I realize it was a cut-and-paste.

But what's even sillier is that the bulletin was issued to begin with. Like the little boy who cried "wolf' when there wasn't really one there, urgent messages about non-events may make folks tend to ignore messages about actual storms.

[NautiNurse]

Anyone know why janetjanet’s post on this earlier was pulled? I couldn’t figure it out.

So far today, I have been pinged to three threads for the possible disturbance, and a fourth thread indicating AF recon didn't find a center to the storm. No small wonder the Admin Mod is locking threads.

[sageb1]

Ok. Thanks for the explanation.

[lightman]

So far today, I have been pinged to three threads for the possible disturbance, and a fourth thread indicating AF recon didn't find a center to the storm. No small wonder the Admin Mod is locking thread

Nevertheless, if Accuweather is right and this storm does develop there will be very little time for the Carolinas to prepare.

This isn't like the classic storm which begins to develop in the Antilles and takes a week or more to get toward the US mainland giving lots of time for preparations.

Problem is, how do you issue a "watch" for a storm that hasn't quite developed?

[NautiNurse]

The NHC has been forecasting the possibility of this storm developing all week. They have been correct in their forecast for very slow development since last Monday. The NHC has issues two statements today regarding the system. Recon has been dispatched twice since Wednesday. Local and national news have been reporting the system since before Felix made landfall.

I'm not sure what else can be done when there is no center of circulation to be found.

[Nasty McPhilthy]

I just moved back to South Carolina from the Tar Heel State. Pamlico County for 8 years and New Hanover County for 4 years.

Trust me, folks out there know what to do.