Posted on 09/05/2007 7:23:43 AM PDT by George W. Bush
How A Dark-Horse Can Win The Nomination
By Thomas F. Roeser - The Wanderer Press
CHICAGO Two weeks ago I played political strategist for Ron Paul. In the old days of my misspent youth, when I was a hired gun political strategist working for the Minnesota Republican Party, nobody asked whom I was for. They didnt care. My boss just showed me a candidate and ordered me to devise a strategy for him/ her at lowest possible cost. And because I liked to continue eating, I did it.
It didnt work out too badly. After a few of us got the hang of it, the GOP, once locked in the dark ages of Hubert Humphrey, Eugene McCarthy, and a Democratic machine governor, won the governorship and two Senate seats.
So in that spirit, I seized upon the darkest of dark horses in the Republican column, Cong. Ron Paul of Texas, and sketched out a plan of attack for him. That doesnt mean Im for him: It means that pursuing a definite strategy he can come close to winning and maybe win if fortune smiles. Believe it or not, Ive heard far and wide from people who say it makes sense. Of course it does! Its the only way for a candidate with little money who is fighting those with big media budgets.
The strategy: The bunch up of primaries on February 5 should produce a candidate winning the Northeast, one winning the Midwest, and another the South (maybe the same guy). Paul should strive to come in second somewhere (I suggest the Northeast as most favorable to his candidacy). The winner would probably be Rudy Giuliani. Paul would then have every right to demand a debate with Giuliani where he would have the chance to appeal to more conservative Republican voters and thinking liberals.
I urged Paul to campaign in nontraditional GOP circles in the Northeast following the style of Eugene McCarthy in New Hampshire visiting universities, coffeehouses, editorial boards, talkradio programs; and specifically going to every liberal group imaginable: anathema to a regular Republican campaign. In that way he could grab national media attention and have a shot.
Because I heard from a lot of Ron Paul Wanderer readers who felt this was the correct strategy, let me now outline a low cost media approach.
Absolutely no money ought to be spent on TV commercials or expensive multicolored brochures. Not very much should be spent on staff either. Expensive consultants want candidates to buy TV so as to benefit from a commission rakeoff. So, no TV.
Volunteers ought to do most of the work. The only staffer I would pay good money to should be the candidates driver, the one who drives him around New Hampshire safely and carefully. A good driver is the most important member of a presidential primary campaign.
But there are perils with candidates drivers. Hence I suggest Pauls drive ought to be a mute. Physically impaired. One congenitally deprived of the use of speech. An individual condemned to permanent silence. Incapable ofspeech and utterance. Unable to emit a sound of any kind. Understand I do not mean one who is laconic. I mean mute: from the Old French mu, the Middle Englishmuet, from the Latin mutus. I mean characterized by absence of speech. As with the line from Emily Dickinson: The words stopped at his lips unsounded.
With the candidate held prisoner in the back seat, a garrulous, know-it-all driver can take advantage of the candidates weakness and pour a good deal of nonsense into his ears. Worse, the candidate in extreme fatigue can be led to imagine that the driver speaks for the common man. So mute he must be.
The driver will be the best paid; the second highest paid should be the scheduler. When I covered McCarthy in New Hampshire, he had a perfect one. All schedulers are victimized by friends who importune themselves to get the candidate to their favorite church picnics. Not so McCarthys scheduler who was an autistic savant. He was distant from friends and associates, single-minded on only a map. He was the best scheduler I ever saw. Sadly he is not available but an autistic savant as scheduler, similar in style to Dustin Hoffman in the filmRain Man, should be available somewhere. Paul should pay him well.
Running the campaign on volunteers saves money for paid communications. By which I mean radio. A decade ago a guest at my political science class at De Paul University was Michael Deaver ( who died recently). Everyone believes Ronald Reagan was the most popular governor California ever had. Not so. He won his second term by only 52% in 1970. But he still wanted to run for president.
He turned to Deaver, who understood the governor was a conservative ideologue ( as Deaver decidedly was not). Radio, he reasoned, was for the philosophically committed, the people Reagan had to appeal to. So he put Reagan on the radio across the country radio exclusively.
Each radio message of only a few minutes in length had him deliver small bits of conservative philosophy in bite-sized morsels. At the end he would say, This is Ronald Reagan. Thanks for listening.
While Reagan was known nationally from his films, his ideas aside from California were not. Radio got ex-radio announcer Reagan across to the country.
Making Points And Raising Money
Ron Paul is no Ronald Reagan nor is he a nationally known commodity but he doesnt have to be. Radio talks on small stations radio exclusively will do the job. With the first bunch- up of presidential primaries on February 5, 2008 (to which Arizona has now been added), Rudy Giuliani is supposed to do well on that day in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Delaware.
Pauls goal should be to concentrate on being second in any of those Republican contests. And dont worry that these states look like distinctly hostile country to conservative Republicans. With artful three-minute radio talks with a contributions request at the end, Paul can make his points and raise money for them at the same time.
What should the commercials deal with? The first should be on the Iraq War where he says he voted against the war resolution, adding that if war is sought it must be fully approved by Congress with a complete declaration of war allowing total resources dedicated to victory; unlike the original authorization of 2002, where the president received an okay to use military force against Iraq to attain only two objectives: defend the national security against the continuing threat posed by Iraq and enforce all relevant UN Security Council resolutions regarding Iraq. Paul authorized a sunset provision to the original authorization.
It should conclude with the fact that previous Congresses limited past presidents from either waging war or extending it which this Democratic Congress has failed to do. When was that? Paul should say: Ill tell you next week. Until then this is Ron Paul saying thanks for listening.
The second commercial should list them, including: Nixon had to obey a congressional order in 1969 not to send troops to Laos or Thailand. Gerald Ford was forced to accept a ban on excursions to Angola. Reagan had to obey a limitation on use of troops beyond Lebanon in 1983. Bill Clinton was banned from extending military operations in Somalia in 1994. And George W. Bush has complied with limitations on the number of military and contractor personnel sent to Colombia.
Ron Paul can use these precedents to score the Democrats who talk big but who havent acted. In that way he could call their bluff and get Democrats to switch to him in the primaries. Liberals could become disenchanted with the Democrats running since they failed to do this and come over to Paul.
His third would be on immigration. Unlike other libertarians, Paul opposes illegal immigration because of the toll illegal immigrants take on welfare rolls and worsening an unready unbalanced federal budget.
A fourth would state his opposition to any violation of habeas corpus to protect against possible unlawful imprisonment, triggering a liberal crossover.
Fifth would be immensely popular his opposition to reintroduction of the military draft.
Sixth should state his support of the Second Amendment, the purpose of which was to put a check on government tyranny, not merely to grant hunting rights.
Seventh:there should be no federal control over education.
Eighth: his plans to reduce health care costs for families particularly waiving the employee portion of Social Security payroll taxes for those with serious illnesses and suspending such taxes for primary caregivers with a sick spouse or child.
Ninth: his opposition to abortion and his following a consistent life ethic: opposition to the death penalty. Tenth: his reform of the tax code which would replace the cumbersome tax process with a simplified tax form where he also spells out substantial tax savings.
All these ideas, incidentally, have been proposed by Ron Paul earlier. Of course as with every other candidate, there are hot button libertarian issues I would not stress: his criticism of the federal war on drugs ( states should determine the extent of opposition) which could be twisted to sound too permissive; support of income tax resistance in the form of peaceful disobedience ( easily twisted to endorse violence); his vote against a constitutional amendment to ban desecration of the flag ( a red flag to most conservatives).
These broadcasts should not exceed three minutes in length and should be spelled out in simple words with instructions on how to contribute via the Internet. Beginning in mid- December in the Northeast, if popular there with donations coming in, they could be run in the Midwest. And if theyre lousy with money, try California which is jaded by samesame programs advocated by the two parties.
Follow This Formula
This strategy cant be used by other dark- horse candidates ( Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Sam Brownback, et al.) since to some degree they echo the regular Republican establishment bloc. The big three establishment ones are still Giuliani, Romney, and Thompson. If Paul runs second to any one of them, the situation is ripe for a debate.
I promise not to give further unsolicited advice to him in the future. I have other things to do. But if he follows this formula, Paul might one day thank me if only for the blessed silence he would enjoy as he rode in the back seat of a car driven by a professional driver who was also mute. And by a schedule concocted by one impervious to beseeching special demands from political pals.
When liberal Democratic candidates hit stinging blows, you can always count on the so- called establishment mainstream media to sit on the story. Last week, Michelle Obama, wife of Sen. Barack ( D., Ill.), took a wicked cut at Hillary Clinton. If you havent heard about the story on the networks or read about it in your newspapers or on the wire services, remember that what Mrs. Obama said was detrimental a) to the Obama campaign, with Michelle Obama hurling mudballs and b) to the Clintons. Neither big metropolitan daily in Chicago has referred to it, although they have special correspondents traveling with the Obamas. Reason: too negative to the Obamas and the Clintons. Nevertheless this is what really happened: Campaigning in Iowa, the Obamas have come cheek to jowl with the reality that a hefty political machine built by Bill Clinton is currently topping Obama. The young Illinois senator is 46 years old and is only three years out of the Illinois legislature. He is struggling to make voters feel confident with the idea of him as commander-in-chief. All the while, Hillary is trading on her own expertise beginning with the role she played as first lady and a so-called two-fer, a co- partner with her husband in the White House.
Last week, Mrs. Obama had had enough of the Clintons. She had this to say about Baracks top opponent, Mrs. Clinton: If you cant run your own house, you cant run the White House!
It was a vicious cut, referring to the nations number- one philanderer who embarrassed his wife with an affair with intern Monica Lewinsky.
The skewering from Michelle Obama was doubly well-aimed.
First, at Hillarys so- called lack of attention to her roving husband and second to the fact that Hillary has a big lead over Obama due to Bill Clintons political network of wealthy fund- raisers and big- city machine types.
If this charge had come from a Republican you can bet the networks would be breaking into their programs with we interrupt this broadcast to bring you. . . . But as it came from a liberal media favorites wife, the story was suffocated.
To read more articles by Thomas F. Roeser, log on to www.tomroeser.com
‘If you want to reverse the results of 2006 and capitalize on the excitement of the Paul campaign...’
(chuckle)
You guys are amusing, I’ll give you that.
Follow the link in my tag line. Ron Paul can not win. He can’t win in the debates. He can’t win in the primary, and he can’t win in the general.
RP is a joke, and not even a funny one.
"I had to literally beg him to support the vote authorizing the President to send Troops to Afghanistan. (Emphasis added.) I actually threatened to resign if he did not vote that way. And another key District Staffer, practically threatened to resign, as well. At the last minute Ron voted in favor of the Authorization. I suspected he only did it, cause he knew if he hadn't he would cause the Republicans in the District to oppose him, and he wouldn't win reelection."
"But I do remember one time, when a group of Houston Jewish Young Republicans wanted to lobby the Congressman on some issues. I begged Ron to meet with them. He was very hesitant. He finally agreed. But the meeting turned out to be a disaster. The Jewish YRs came all the way from Houston, and all Ron did was berate them in our District Office about how the Israel Lobby was too powerful in Washington, and other issues. He also got defensive when the Jewish YRs expressed concern over Palestinian violence against Israel."
Yup, that's a guy I want in charge of our foreign policy. Didn't want the US to take on the gov't of AFGHANISTAN (that's the Taliban, NOT Iraq -- you know, the people behind 9-11), thinks it's all the "Israel Lobby"s fault, and gets defensive if someone dares think the terrorist scum in Palestine might be a legitimate concern for Israelis.
Uh huh, Go Ron Paul. GO AWAY, that is!!!
Bonzo Goes To Bitburg?
The KKK Took My Baby Away?
RIP Johnny Ramone
1948-2004
That’s right Badeye. I forgot that Romney, Thomspson, Guiliani and the rest of them are so exciting that 40 thousand people are taking to the streets, creating their own campaign events, spending hundreds of thousands of dollars of their own money on these exciting, inspiring campaigns! That’s why Republicans swept Legislatures across the country in 2006!
Oh wait, never mind.
Do you even know what Bonzo Goes To Bitburg was about?
Thanks, mnehrling, but I don’t really have a “file” on Ron Paul. I just dug that stuff up with a Yahoo search. Ron Paul is easy to shred with even a little digging. Frankly, I think he does have some good ideas, but his foreign policy is so flawed that he is simply not acceptable (to me) or truly viable as a candidate.
Actually, the only topic I have a “file” on is global warming — copied directly from a lengthy post by a freeper.
Elsewhere on our site, I espy "Dark Horse" activity. It concerns running a top general as a surprise candidate. Any thoughts?
Ron Paul? Even Duncan Hunter, whom I really could support, by the way; they strike me as too bland. They are ideologically sound, I suppose, but where's the pepper?
This race is about national security, absolutely No.1. That's what we should be punching on, right now through Nov '08. Force the Democrats to fight on our ground, not go chasing them around on "social" and woman's issues.
This is your brain on drugs.
Of course, he still can't possibly win the primaries, given the well-known fact that he's a space Nazi.
Every time I take one of those little test that are suppose to help you find out what candidate is the best fit for you I come up with Duncan Hunter. I like Duncan Hunter. I like him a lot. But he not only has no real organization but like you say he does lack pepper. Hell...he lacks salt!
I'm supporting Fred but if Duncan ends up as VP or in a security spot on the cabinet it would be a wonderful thing.
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