Threat Matrix: September 2007

The Birth of al Qaedastan

In the year 2016, the world may find itself gloomily marking September 6 as the tenth anniversary of the creation of the Islamic Emirate of Waziristan. The Emirate received de facto recognition when the Taliban used the name on the ceasefire agreement they signed with Pakistan on that day in 2006. If things go terribly wrong in the coming decade, they could come to rule a mountainous fragment of Pakistan and Afghanistan.

The Emirate would be a nightmare state: Osama bin Laden as sultan, Ayman al Zawahiri as vizier, and Mullah Omar the spiritual leader. An economy built on smuggling and heroin. Primary export: terrorism. Welcome to ‘Al Qaedastan’.

Analysts say the rise of a terrorist state straddling the rugged area between Pakistan and Afghanistan is now viable. The reason is a number of troubling trends. One, the revival of a Taliban firmly in the control of Al Qaeda. Two, the seeming inability of either Kabul or Islamabad to defeat the new threat militarily. Three, and the most striking, the Taliban’s systematic supplanting of the traditional tribal leadership in the area. Full story...

	Lebanon: Tiny Country, Big Threats
	Islamist Web Site Explains 'How to Join Al Qaeda'
	The Ongoing Hunt for Osama bin Laden

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September 2007

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Note: The following text is a quote:

http://www.mnf-iraq.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=14016&Itemid=21

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
RELEASE No. 20070915-02
September 15, 2007

Iraqi Army, Iraqi Security Forces, U.S. Special Forces detain extremists
Multi-National Corps – Iraq PAO

BAGHDAD – Iraqi Army and Iraqi Security Forces, with U.S. Special Forces as advisers, detained a Shi’a extremist cell member Sept. 14 during an operation in Wassit Province.

Intelligence reports say the suspect conducts attacks using improvised explosive devices and explosively formed penetrators as well as launching direct fire attacks against Iraqi and Coalition Forces in the Al Aziziyah area.

On Aug. 23, the suspect’s cell detonated an EFP on an Iraqi Security Forces and Coalition Forces convoy, killing two Coalition Forces soldiers and wounding three others. He was also involved in an Aug. 2 IED attack on a convoy that killed two civilian contractors.

Further intelligence indicates the extremist is also a member of a cell that conducts extra judicial killings against innocent civilians. The suspect is also accused of several criminal acts against the citizens of the town of Al Aziziyah. These criminal acts include emplacing IEDs, assault and kidnapping.

During the raid, Iraqi and U.S. Forces confiscated two AK-47 rifles and six grenades. Two other suspicious individuals were also detained for further questioning.

No Iraqi or U.S. members were injured in the operation.

-30-

Note: The following text is a quote:

http://www.mnf-iraq.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=14017&Itemid=21

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
RELEASE No. 20070915-03
September 15, 2007

Iraqi Security Forces, U.S. Special Operations Forces detain nine
Multi-National Corps – Iraq PAO

BAGHDAD – Iraqi Security Forces, with U.S. Special Operations Forces as advisers, detained nine suspected terrorists and destroyed approximately 170,000 rounds of anti-aircraft ammunition during operations Sept. 11 and Sept. 13 in northern and western Iraq.

Iraqi Security Forces led an operation in Mosul Sept. 13 and detained a suspected al Qaeda in Iraq Emir who is an alleged battalion commander for the terrorist group. He is also suspected of financing illegal activities in the local area.

One rocket propelled grenade launcher, three RPG rockets, two hand grenades, ammunition with magazines, propaganda and various materials used to make improvised explosive devices were seized during the operation. Five other suspected terrorists were also detained.

In a separate operation Sept. 13, ISF detained six individuals believed to be linked to al Qaeda in Iraq during an early-morning operation in Al Qaim.

Intelligence reports indicate that one of the detainees is responsible for facilitating the re-supply of insurgents operating in the southern Rutbah deserts, just south of Al Qaim. He is also suspected of obtaining weapons and equipment to be used in vicious attacks against Iraqi soldiers and police. The second detainee allegedly supplies weapons, water and food to the al Qaeda in Iraq network south of Al Qaim and is believed to be meeting with foreign fighters and al Qaeda in Iraq Emirs to plan future attacks in the area.

During an earlier operation, ISF detained a suspected al Qaeda in Iraq insurgent and seized more than 170,000 rounds of anti-aircraft ammunition near Rawah Sept. 11.

While operating in the vicinity of Samsiyah, forces detained the cell leader and discovered a buried storage container containing 3,500 cases of 14.5-millimeter armor-piercing incendiary anti-aircraft ammunition. The ammunition was seized and the storage container was destroyed. During a patrol near Lubiyah, forces discovered IEDs at two separate locations and destroyed the devices in place.

No Iraqi or U.S. Forces were injured during this operation.

-30-

Note: The following text is a quote:

http://www.travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/tw/tw_929.html

Travel Warning
United States Department of State
Bureau of Consular Affairs
Washington, DC 20520

This information is current as of today, Sat Sep 15 2007 03:11:01 GMT-0700.

ALGERIA

September 14, 2007

This Travel Warning is being updated to alert U.S. citizens to recent terrorist attacks directed against foreigners in Algeria. The threat from terrorism in many areas of the country continues to pose a significant security risk. This supersedes the Travel Warning issued on March 22, 2007.

The Department of State urges U.S. citizens who travel to Algeria to evaluate carefully the risk posed to their personal safety. Sustained small-scale terrorist attacks including bombings, false roadblocks, kidnappings, ambushes, and assassinations occur regularly. A roadside bomb targeted a bus transporting foreign workers of a U.S. company in the western part of Algiers in December 2006. In April 2007 three suicide bombers detonated vehicle-borne explosives outside of government buildings in Algiers. Three more suicide bomb attacks in July and September 2007 in Lakhdaria, Batna and Dellys killed more than 80 people.

The Department of State recommends that U.S. citizens avoid overland travel in the mountainous northern part of the country, and particularly in the area stretching from Algiers east to the Tunisian border.

The U.S. Government considers the potential threat to U.S. Embassy personnel assigned to Algiers sufficiently serious to require them to live and work under strict security restrictions. These practices limit, and may occasionally prevent, the movement of U.S. Embassy officials in certain areas of the country. The Government of Algeria requires U.S. Embassy personnel traveling outside the province of Algiers or to the Casbah within Algiers to seek permission and to have a security escort. Travel to the military zone established around the Hassi Messaoud oil center requires Government of Algeria authorization. U.S. Government personnel are permitted by the Embassy to move freely in many areas in the center of Algiers, but are required to maintain prudent security practices. Travel by personnel to areas of the city outside this zone requires prior coordination with the Embassy’s Regional Security Office. American visitors are encouraged to contact the Embassy’s Consular Section for the most recent safety and security information concerning travel in the city of Algiers.

The Department of State cautions Americans who reside or travel in Algeria to take prudent security measures while in the country, including making provisions for reliable and experienced logistical support. This support should include being met upon arrival and accompanied for the duration of the visit. Visitors should ensure that tour operators and host organizations perform all notifications and coordination with Algerian police and security officials during their stay. Visitors to Algeria are advised to stay only in hotels where adequate security is provided. All visitors to Algeria should remain alert and adhere to prudent security practices such as avoiding predicable travel patterns and maintaining a low profile.

American citizens in or traveling to Algeria also are urged to register and to obtain updated information on travel and security in Algeria at the consular section of the U.S. Embassy in Algiers or on our travel registration website at https://travelregistration.state.gov/ibrs/ . The Embassy is located at 5 Chemin Cheikh Bachir El-Ibrahimi, B.P. 408 (Alger-Gare) 16000, in the capital city of Algiers. The Embassy can be reached at telephone [213] (21) 691-425; [213] (21) 691-186; fax [213] (21) 693-979; or email consularAlgiers@state.gov . U.S. citizens who require emergency services may telephone the Embassy at [213] (21) 691-255 Up-to-date information on security conditions as well as general information concerning Algeria and the U.S. Embassy is also available on the Embassy’s website http://Algiers.usembassy.gov/ .

For the latest security information, Americans traveling abroad should regularly monitor the Department’s Internet website at http://travel.state.gov where the Consular Information Sheet for Algeria and the current Worldwide Caution and Middle East and North Africa Public Announcements can be found. Up-to-date information on security can also be obtained by calling 1-888-407-4747 toll-free in the United States and Canada or, for callers outside the United States and Canada, a regular toll line at 1-202-501-4444. These numbers are available from 8:00 a.m. To 8:00 p.m. Eastern time, Monday through Friday (except U.S. federal holidays).

Bomb maker among three arrested in eastern Afghanistan
14 September 2007

KABUL - Three key Taleban insurgents, one of them believed to be a bomb maker, were arrested in Sherzad district of eastern Nangahar province, official said on Friday. The commandos detained three Taleban insurgents, among them a key facilitator identified as Haji Shir Khan, who is was involved in improvised explosive device (bomb) making, the coalition forces said in a statement.

According to the statement, Haji Shir Khan was responsible for numerous attacks on Afghan and coalition forces in eastern Nangahar province. Afghan and coalition forces launched a two-day search operation in Sherzad district of Nangahar province, the statement said, adding, ‘during the search, forces discovered 18 rocket-propelled grenade rounds, one anti-tank mine, 10 hand grenades, one 12-gauge shotgun, eight AK-47 magazines, and more than 80 kilograms of opium.’

Excerpted

http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticleNew.asp?xfile=data/subcontinent/2007/September/subcontinent_September543.xml&section=subcontinent&col=

US sees serious religious freedom problems in Pakistan
Saturday, September 15, 2007

WASHINGTON: The US State Department’s annual report on religious freedoms around the world notes “continued deterioration of the extremely poor status of respect for religious freedom” in Iran and highlights “serious problems” in Pakistan.

‘Report on International Religious Freedom’ published on Friday warns that religious freedom conditions have worsened in insurgency-wracked Iraq as well as Egypt, while communist China has embarked on a crackdown on foreign missionaries ahead of the Olympics. Religious freedom is “integral to our efforts to combat the ideology of hatred and religious intolerance that fuels global terrorism,” said Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice as she launched the 800-page report in Washington.

Amid intra-sectarian Muslim violence, religious worship conditions “deteriorated” over the past year in Iraq with the ongoing insurgency “significantly” harming the ability of people to practice their faith, according to the report.

“Many individuals from various religious groups were targeted because of their religious identity or their secular leanings,” the report said of the situation in Iraq where US troops are facing an uphill battle to restore order.

In Egypt, a key US ally, respect for religious freedom has “declined”, the report said, citing particularly a court ruling this year that reinstated a policy not to provide a legal means for converts from Islam to Christianity to amend their civil records. “There are cases where converts have been held and sometimes received physical abuse,” US special envoy for international religious freedom John Hanford told a briefing. One convert released after 25 months has his life now “under threat,” he pointed out.

Excerpted

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2007/09/15/story_15-9-2007_pg7_17

Emerging connection between North Korea, Iran, Syria and Hezbollah
Friday, 14 September, 2007

Washington & Beirut - A senior U.S. nuclear official said Friday that North Koreans were in Syria and that Damascus may have had contacts with "secret suppliers" to obtain nuclear equipment.

Andrew Semmel, acting deputy assistant secretary of state for nuclear nonproliferation policy, did not identify the suppliers, but said North Koreans were in the country and that he could not exclude that the network run by the disgraced Pakistan nuclear scientist A.Q. Khan may have been involved. He said it was not known if the contacts had produced any results. "Whether anything transpired remains to be seen," he said.

Strong Evidence Against Hezbollah
Meanwhile, the U.S. ambassador to Lebanon said Friday that there is clear evidence the Shiite group Hizbullah is still smuggling weapons across the Syrian border in violation of U.N. resolutions.

"We find the evidence to be strong that arms smuggling is continuing across the Syrian-Lebanese border," Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman said, without giving any specific details. "We are concerned by the reports and by the public statements by Hizbullah that Hizbullah has actively rearmed." He added: "In our view this poses one of the biggest dangers to Lebanon and it is a violation of the spirit and the letter of a number of Security Council resolutions."

Feltman said there were several initiatives under discussion with the Lebanese government on how to halt the smuggling of weapons. Saying that the international community would respond favorably to any Lebanese government request to help in border security, Feltman said "there are several initiatives under discussion with the government about how best to prevent smuggling, most importantly arms smugglings." He also rejected arguments that controlling Lebanon's border with Syria would amount to interfering in the country's sovereignty. "Controlling borders is an assertion of sovereignty," he maintained.

Is Syria Building a Nuclear Arsenal?
Syria has never commented publicly on its nuclear program. It has a small research nuclear reactor, as do several other countries in the region, including Egypt. While Israel and the U.S. have expressed concerns in the past, Damascus has not been known to make a serious push to develop a nuclear energy or weapons program.

Proliferation experts have said that Syria's weak economy would make it hard-pressed to afford nuclear technology, and that Damascus - which is believed to have some chemical weapons stocks - may have taken the position that it does not also need nuclear weapons.

Semmel was responding to questions about an Israeli airstrike in northern Syria last week. Neither side has explained what exactly happened, but a U.S. government official confirmed that Israeli warplanes were targeting weapons from Iran and destined for Hezbollah militants in Lebanon.

The Washington Post reported Thursday that Israel had gathered satellite imagery showing possible North Korean cooperation with Syria on a nuclear facility. North Korea, which has a longstanding alliance with Syria, condemned the Israeli air incursion. Israeli experts say North Korea and Iran both have been major suppliers of Syria's missile stock. Syrian Information Minister Mohsen Bilal told the Saudi newspaper Asharq al-Awsat on Thursday that the accusations of North Korean nuclear help were a "new American spin to cover up" for Israel. Semmel, who is in Italy for a meeting Saturday on the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, said Syria was certainly on the U.S. "watch list."

"There are indicators that they do have something going on there," he said. "We do know that there are a number of foreign technicians that have been in Syria. We do know that there may have been contact between Syria and some secret suppliers for nuclear equipment. Whether anything transpired remains to be seen." "So good foreign policy, good national security policy, would suggest that we pay very close attention to that," he said. "We're watching very closely. Obviously, the Israelis were watching very closely."

Asked if the suppliers could have been North Koreans, he said: "There are North Korean people there. There's no question about that. Just as there are a lot of North Koreans in Iraq and Iran." Asked if the so-called Khan network, which supplied nuclear technology to Iran, Libya and North Korea, could have been involved, he said he "wouldn't exclude" it.

http://yalibnan.com/site/archives/2007/09/emerging_connec.php

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/keyword?k=gimf

http://www.jihadwatch.org/archives/018144.php
(NATIONAL POST)

September 15, 2007
“Quebec jihad suspect to West: ‘We came to you with slaughter’”

###

http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/news/story.html?id=3853b9bd-c74c-4098-8a5c-c1063817b9ac

“’We Came To You With Slaughter’
Quebec Terror Suspect; Berated Muslims online for not fighting jihad”
Stewart Bell And Graeme Hamilton, National Post
Published: Saturday, September 15, 2007

ARTICLE SNIPPET: “MONTREAL - On the Internet, he was known as Ashraf. It means noble in Arabic.

But the hundreds of incendiary messages he posted to pro-al-Qaeda Web sites were anything but.

From his computer in Quebec, Ashraf disseminated articles that berated Muslims for not fighting jihad; called for war until “religion will be for Allah alone”; and bluntly advised the West that, “We came to you with slaughter.”

Yesterday, Said Namouh, 34, a landed immigrant from Quebec, appeared briefly in a Montreal courtroom, accused of working with an Austrian extremist to plot a truck bombing in Europe.

The RCMP said Mr. Namouh used the alias Ashraf, and a U.S. terrorism research group said Mr. Namouh and the on-line Ashraf who appears regularly on jihadist Internet forums are one and the same.”

ARTICLE SNIPPET: “”I am confident that the member by the name Ashraf that SITE found as a member of Global Islamic Media Front is the same Ashraf who was arrested by the Canadians.”

She said Ashraf was “a prominent and senior” member of the GIMF, an international network of al-Qaeda sympathizers who translate, repackage and disseminate the propaganda of Islamist terrorist groups.

Through the GIMF’s on-line forum, Ashraf communicated with Mohammed Mahmoud, the alleged leader of the group’s German branch who was arrested in Vienna on Wednesday along with two other suspects. The RCMP accuses Ashraf of conspiring with Mr. Mahmoud to detonate a bomb.

On other jihadist message boards, Ashraf switched to different aliases. But while he has been charged with planning an attack, what he mostly did was spread propaganda.”

http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/news/story.html?id=3853b9bd-c74c-4098-8a5c-c1063817b9ac&p=2

ARTICLE SNIPPET: “The arrest followed a joint investigation by Canadian and Austrian counter-terrorism authorities. Mr. Namouh is believed to be just one of several GIMF members operating from Canada.

“Mr. Namouh conspired with an individual in Austria to explode a car bomb,” Crown prosecutor Pierre Labelle told reporters after the bearded suspect appeared briefly in court yesterday dressed in jeans and a stained white T-shirt. “At the moment, those are the only elements I can reveal. Obviously, the investigation is ongoing.””

You're welcome Cindy.

______________________________

Confederation of Terror
Saturday, September 15, 2007

On September 6 the Islamic Emirate of Waziristan marked the first anniversary of its de facto recognition. On that day last year, the Taliban used the name when it signed a ceasefire agreement with the Pakistani government. The ceasefire is in tatters, but the terror trail of the recent plots in Germany and Denmark indicates that the Emirate is doing fine.

The Emirate's writ is spreading among the mountainous areas that make up the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) that run along the Pakistan-Afghan border. Going by trends, the Emirate is more than just a safe haven: It is on a nightmare path of nation-building. Osama bin Laden will be its sultan; Mullah Omar its spiritual leader; heroin and smuggling its economic drivers; and terrorism its primary export. "Al Qaeda is building a mini-state, an enclave, in the FATA," says Rohan Gunaratna, author of Inside al Qaeda.

Besides the heartland of South and North Waziristan, "al Qaedastan" also encompasses a belt of tribal land going up to Mohmand and Bajaur areas. Its sphere of violent influence, says a former member of the Afghan National Security Council, includes bordering Afghan provinces like Loya Paktia and, increasingly, Nangarhar.

Three developments are feeding the growth of "al Qaedastan." One is a resurrected, more militant Taliban, which is supplanting traditional Pashtun chiefs in the border areas with its radical clerics. The second is the increasing number of global Islamic militant groups who are taking up residence there. The third is the inability of either Kabul or Islamabad to marshal a credible military response.

Over the past three decades, the Pashtun have been repeatedly mobilized under the jihadi banner: first by the Pakistani military and the U.S. to fight the Soviets, then by various Afghan warlords and the Taliban, and now by the ideology of al Qaeda. The malik, a local chief who helped keep the peace since the British Raj, and represented an older secular Pashtun nationalism, has been marginalized. The mullah now holds sway. "The Durrani tribal maliki that once dominated these areas is being physically eradicated," says Michael Shaikh of the International Crisis Group.

Some argue this is nothing more than Durrani nobility being replaced by an upstart subtribe, the Ghilzai. But the spread of Islamicism is blurring tribal distinctions. "Today's Taliban are fighting for an extremist ideology, not for Ghilzai supremacy," says an Afghan official. An example of how this ideology is taking root is how it has ended the centuries-old feuds between the Waziri and Mehsud subtribes.

The "al Qaedaization" of the Taliban can be seen in their use of suicide bombing, human shields and bloodier kidnappings, practices abhorrent in traditional Pashtun culture. The Afghan government has no doubt this represents foreign tutelage. Says the Afghan ambassador to the U.S., Said Tayeb Jawad: "Al Qaeda is the commander, the Taliban the foot soldier. Al Qaeda provides strategic guidance."

The Emirate is not a centralized political entity. The ground situation more closely resembles a medieval confederation of warlords. Starting at the southern border of FATA is South Waziristan, where Maulvi Nazir holds sway with an estimated 3,000 Wazirs. Some months ago he bloodily drove away several hundred Uzbek militants, who then sought refuge in the North Waziristan areas held by Baitullah Mehsud, a militant commander rapidly gaining strength.

Also in this area, says Taliban watcher and Pakistani journalist Khawar Mehdi Rizvi, is Taliban leader Jalaluddin Haqqani. "He is ill and one sees his sons moving around in the area. But he is the key man in FATA. He acts as the interface between the Taliban, al Qaeda and the tribal leaders." There have been recent arrivals: A few thousand fighters from Pakistan militant groups like Jaish-e-Mohammad, normally focussed on fighting Indian security forces in Kashmir, moved there earlier this year. They have been called the "Pakistan Taliban" or, more accurately, the "Punjabi Taliban." The northernmost tribal area of Bajaur is home to Gulbuddin Hikmatyar, the anti-Soviet Afghan warlord once favored by the Pakistani military.

There are differences on how al Qaeda, centered around bin Laden and a new crop of North African Arab commanders, fits into all this. Gunaratna argues al Qaeda, which has always had to be a guest of a local host in the past, is master of its new home. Rizvi believes al Qaeda secures its position by providing money and training. Most agree al Qaeda stays atop the terror pyramid in large part because it is perceived as the fount of militant ideology.

The various parts of the confederation of terror wage their own separate holy wars. Haqqani's sights are set on Kabul. Indian counterterrorism expert B. Raman says Mehsud, who can count on the support of a Mehsud subtribe, is behind the recent suicide bombings in Pakistani cities and capture of hundreds of Pakistani soldiers. Al Qaeda, the group with the most extensive international connections, has been behind a number of attempted attacks against European targets ranging from last August's British airplane plot to this month's German peroxide plot. The main Uzbek jihadi groups look to Central Asia. Unsurprisingly, hundreds of aspiring terrorists are flocking to FATA for training and inspiration. Many fighters from FATA also make a pilgrimage to Iraq to get a taste of the war, learn new tactics and techniques.

The forces arraigned against this rising terrorist mini-state are in disarray. The Afghan government of Hamid Karzai is isolated. NATO is hamstrung by a shortage of soldiers and too many casualty-shy contingents. Pakistan is heading for a year of political turmoil as military ruler Pervez Musharraf hemorrhages legitimacy and his civilian political rivals challenge his rule. U.S. policy is paralyzed by a presidential campaign, a situation exacerbated by the consuming domestic debate over Iraq. Says Shaikh: "The best-case scenario is another 30 years of low-level tribal warfare." The worst is the consolidation of al Qaedastan. In his latest 9/11 anniversary message, Osama bin Laden dyed his beard. Perhaps he was celebrating.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/09/14/AR2007091401980.html

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