Anti-incumbent Strategy Buoys GOP

Townhall.com ^ | August 30, 2007 | Donald Lambro

[Kaslin]

WASHINGTON -- Republicans face another hostile political climate next year, but GOP congressional election strategists think they may have found a way to overcome it.

According to party officials, the emerging campaign game plan will play off the voters' deepening disapproval of the Democratic-run Congress by urging Republican challengers to run an anti-incumbent, anti-Washington, insurgent campaign.

"We're working closely with our candidates as we head into next year to tell them don't be afraid to run against Republicans as a whole, run against Washington as a whole, talk about runaway spending and pick and choose the issues on which to run against this Congress," a GOP election official told me.

This unorthodox strategy shift comes on the heels of a stunning Gallup survey, showing that only 18 percent of Americans now approve of the job Congress is doing. The plummeting poll numbers represent a crushing blow for Democratic leaders that has lifted GOP hopes for a comeback in 2008 and is raising questions among Democrats here about why so many independents and Democrats are giving them a failing grade and whether they can turn that around before next year's elections.

Most disturbing to senior Democratic officials: The 9-point drop in Congress' job-approval rating has come exclusively from Democrats and independents, with an 11-point drop among Democrats alone.

"The number that interests me most is the collapse of the independents, which dropped 13 points, from 30 percent last month to 17 percent this month," said pollster Frank Luntz, the Republican message maestro who helped the GOP take control of Congress in 1994.

"That's the swing vote. Those are the people who left the GOP in 2006. They did not embrace the Democrats. Their vote was a rejection of the Republicans," Luntz told me. "And now those independents are up for grabs."

But veteran election analysts see the possibility of even deeper trouble in the turbulent political climate that is shaping up, and not just for the GOP, either.

"There are two schools of thought," said elections tracker Charlie Cook in a recent analysis in his Cook Political Report. "The first is that after six and a half years of George W. Bush's presidency, the Republican brand has been badly tarnished." It would "take an enormous amount of luck for Republicans ... to win back control of the Senate or House.

"The other school says that, although the Republican brand has been badly damaged, the public mood remains as ugly today as it was before the tidal-wave election last November. That is that Democrats in Congress have accomplished very little, leaving voters unimpressed with their leadership," Cook said.

"Adherents to this point of view conclude that a problematic volatility has been created for all incumbents and that while voters may still be anti-Republican, they are certainly not pro-Democratic. They warn that voters may be receptive to insurgent candidates of either party or no party come 2008," he said.

This seems to be the emerging campaign strategy that Republican leaders plan to pursue next year, party officials told me.

"We're heading into an anti-incumbent year. Those candidates who can best present themselves as agents of change will succeed in this difficult environment," a key Republican official told me.

To be sure, much of the political alienation among Democratic ranks at the grassroots is due to the Iraq War and the frustration that the party they put back into power has been unable to force a U.S. withdrawal as they had promised in 2006. But disgruntlement runs even deeper among the party faithful, and especially among independents.

"The public is frustrated with the pace of change," a Democratic official acknowledged. "If there is a real division on the issues among us, then this is problematic."

But if the voting public is angry, the message behind the Gallup numbers is that they are angry with the whole political establishment here, the bitter partisanship, the poisonous atmosphere that fuels gridlock.

In this kind of hostile climate, where the Republican brand is tarnished, the only hope of the GOP surviving another election rout is a radically different game plan.

"Democrats promised change. No change has been delivered, and now we are seeing the results of that. This has the makings of an anti-incumbent environment that we believe will benefit Republican challengers next year," said Ken Spain, the National Republican Congressional Committee's spokesman.

As the August congressional recess comes to an end, Republicans say the word coming back from members who have been taking the pulse of the voters is changing a little. "We're hearing less and less about Iraq," said a senior GOP official.

There is a growing feeling that the political needle has moved ever so slightly in President Bush's direction on the war, owing to some limited success from the troop surge. Positive comments from Democrats just back from a tour of Iraq have added to this mood shift.

"We're feeling better about where we are right now," a House GOP leadership official told me.

Such optimism in Republican ranks was rare to nonexistent just one month ago.

[neodad]

I still don’t understand why they won’t go after immigration. That plays right into the rest of their Anti-Washington strategy.

[ClearCase_guy]

Based on this, they REALLY need to push out people like Craig. He is the Mark Foley of 2008.

[goldstategop]

The Democrats ARE the establishment now. And they haven't shown exactly much progress in Washington and have the defeatist albatross wrapped neatly around their necks. It took Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi only a couple of months to bring the Democrats to the point it took the GOP to find itself after the better part of a decade in power.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[johnny7]

I still don’t understand why they won’t go after immigration.

Until they do... they'll keep on losing.

[steve8714]

The finances of the Republican party are tied up with the chamber of commerce boys. They only like the pro-business message. The finances of the Democrat party are tied up with the gay mafia, entertainment interests, high-tech gold rush gazillionaires, the teachers’ and government employee unions and parasites like George Soros. They want to radically remake world society.

[VRWCmember]

This means it is also a good time to mount strong conservative primary challenges to incumbant RINOs.

[AFPhys]

Absolutely true.

If this were 2006, Specter would have no chance to hold the GOP nomination in PA. Some other GOP incumbents are likely to have lost, too.

[AFPhys]

Absolutely true.

If this were 2006, Specter would have no chance to hold the GOP nomination in PA. Some other GOP incumbents are likely to have lost their primary, too.

[LibLieSlayer]

Sorry, but people like myself... Conservatives that donate lots of $$$$$$$... are not giving right now. That is the truth! I will support the RNC when martinez is GONE. Until then, I am supporting candidates that I like... directly.

LLS

[pgyanke]

I would love to see the GOP take an anti-incumbent approach. Here's some help: These 13 GOP Senators Must GO

[Soul Seeker]

"That's the swing vote. Those are the people who left the GOP in 2006. They did not embrace the Democrats. Their vote was a rejection of the Republicans," Luntz told me. "And now those independents are up for grabs."

No, Duh.

That's the only retort the analysis deserves. It was obvious to everyone outside D.C. that the public would have tossed both out if they could. In a two party system, they settled for the incumebent majority. Nothing's changed, except that dems have more incumbents to toss then reps.

It'll be interesting, though, to see these same Republicans that have refused to change their RINO course try to run against Washington as outsiders.

hey, I advocated the outsider campaign long ago. I just sort of figured it would have more potency if they behaved like outsiders rather then as wall Street's lackey's.

[steve8714]

The US Senate is composed of perhaps 20 serious people, and 80 world class nitwits. Not all the nitwits are Democrats.
Having said that, nobody died in Larry Craig’s car.

[RetiredArmy]

While I agree with the low ratings of Congress, I get the feeling that, of course, Conservatives are going to give the Congress low numbers, and the Marxist/Socialist/Homosexual/Anti-War/Anti-American wing of the Marxist’s Dimocrat party is also giving them low marks because they have not pulled out of Iraq and surrendered, nor have they impeached Bush, which is what these groups voted them to do. So, I see none of the above voting for a Conservative just to get back at the dims. They will still support the Marxists and we shall still be against them.

[cinives]

Bull. If you look at the largest donors to Democrats, they are investment banks, Wall Street firms, and big businesses like Microsoft and Berkshire Hathaway.

Business gives at least as much to Democrats as to Republicans.

[Senator Goldwater]

54 districts that voted Democrat by two points of less in 2006 went for Bush in 2004, of which many were over 60 percent.

These are GOP seats to win. They MUST recruit viable candidates to vigorously contest and win all of them back.

[mainerforglobalwarming]

I agree. You can tie just about every major issue in this nation to illegal immigration. Border security, high health insurance premiums. Low wages for American workers, loss of tax revenue. And according to Congressman King, illegals kill 9000 American citizens a year. We need a presidential candidate that will stand up and tackle this issue.

[nathanbedford]

So long as George Bush as titular head of the Republican party is in control of the Republican National Committee, there will be no coherent campaign issue made of immigration. However, the control of the party passes upon the nomination of a new presidential candidate. In this cycle with the primaries so early is quite likely that a nominee will be identified before the end spring in which case control of the party will pass to either Thompson or Romney. Both of these men have already articulated a policy of defending the borders and policing against illegal immigration.

In a way, we are fortunate that this is a presidential election cycle coming up because that makes it much easier to nationalize an election which is exactly what the out party wants to do to come back. The Democrats will try to run against George Bush and the war in Iraq. By virtue of the surge and a benign Providence we might just be able to neutralize the war as an issue.

The Democrats must be confronted with issues which can be made national, which splits their party, which severs them from independents, and which unites all Republicans and most independents. Some of those issues which fit these requirements splendidly are: taxes; spending; homeland defense against terrorism; energy independence (consisting of drilling, refining, and nuclear.) Finally, Democrat corruption is rapidly becoming too gross for even the drive-by media to ignore and some pollsters are reporting it to be the primary issue for voters today. Nothing could better put Democrats on the defensive than relentless attacks about corruption. The Democrats then would be left with healthcare-and I don't think they get very many points from anyplace except their own base on this issue.

Finally, while it is necessary and good to relentlessly attacke Democrats on the issue of corruption, that is no substitute for a coherent, structured, aggressive, and popular, systematic, and affirmative platform which resonates with everyman. For example, an energy policy which points out that the Democrats are responsible for the price of oil at the pump by their obdurate refusal to permit drilling, refinery building, and nuclear facilities, converts an issue which runs in their favor so long as Bush continues to remain passive on the subject into a sword which everyman understands every time he fills his tank if we have submitted legislation which the Democrats will have rejected calling for drilling .. It permits Republicans to say that we we are sacrificing our soldiers blood in Iraq because the Democrats will not let us drill in the Gulf. So it is also with taxes- providing a full court press on the matter is made now.

We must look at Thompson and Romney very carefully because it will be the responsibility, not of the Republican national committee, not of George Bush, not of a motley collection of conservative senators, but of the new titular head of the party, the nominee himself, to fashion the message and articulate the message. We need someone who is comfortable before the camera, who is telegenic and who has fire enough to utterly change the rules of the game. The candidate must fashion the issues and nationalize the election. If neither of these men has the remorseless and implacable drive we are lost. If neither of these men sees the need to kick over the table and change the rules of the game in this election cycle, we are lost. Business as usual is a different way of describing defeat for the Republicans this cycle.

[steve8714]

Wall Street are not C of C types. Those would be under “parasites like George Soros”.

[cinives]

Really ?

http://www.chamber.org.hk/hkdir/r_detail.asp?single=true&cb=HKG0368

Wall Street investment types are business folk, just like any other corporation.