Nice contrast. Thank you for all your work on these threads.
Statement as of 4:00 PM CDT on August 21, 2007
...Dean emerges into the Bay of Campeche... A Hurricane Warning remains in effect along the Gulf Coast of Mexico from south of Progreso westward to Tampico. Preparations in the western portion of the Hurricane Warning area should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from north of Tampico to La Pesca. For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. At 400 PM CDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Dean was located near latitude 19.4 north...longitude 91.3 west or about 60 miles... 100 km...west-southwest of Campeche Mexico and about 410 miles...660 km...east-southeast of Tuxpan Mexico. Dean is moving toward the west near 20 mph...32 km/hr...and a west-northwestward to westward motion is expected during the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...Dean is expected to be very near the coast of central Mexico during the day Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph...130 km/hr...with higher gusts. Dean is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some re-strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles...55 km...from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles...220 km. Estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb...28.64 inches. Storm surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels is possible...along with large and dangerous battering waves...along the coast of Mexico within the Hurricane Warning area. Dean is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches over parts of southern and central Mexico...and Guatemala...with maximum amounts of up to 20 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Storm total rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is possible over portions of south Texas. Repeating the 400 PM CDT position...19.4 N...91.3 W. Movement toward...west near 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds...80 mph. Minimum central pressure...970 mb. An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 700 PM CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Franklin/Rhome
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 21, 2007
Dean has emerged into the Bay of Campeche. The advisory intensity of 70 kt is again based on typical decay rates...and highly uncertain. An Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft will be in the cyclone around 00z to ascertain the true strength of Dean. Based on satellite imagery...the inner core of Dean appears to be largely intact...with deep convection directly over the center. This is expected to allow restrengthening to begin fairly quickly...and Dean could be very near major hurricane status by the time of its landfall in the western Gulf. The SHIPS model forecast appears to be overly influenced by the recent decay and has been discounted for this advisory. After landfall...the surface circulation should rapidly become disrupted over the high terrain of central Mexico...although moisture from Dean could end up working its way into the southwestern United States over the next several days. The initial motion continues to be 280/17...and there continues to be no significant change to the track forecast. High pressure north of the Gulf of Mexico will continue to steer Dean on a track just north of west. Model guidance is a little more divergent this afternoon...with the UKMET showing a bit of jog to the right just before landfall. However...the rest of the guidance is largely unchanged and the official forecast is largely an update of the previous advisory. Forecast positions and Max winds initial 21/2100z 19.4n 91.3w 70 kt 12hr VT 22/0600z 19.8n 93.9w 85 kt 24hr VT 22/1800z 20.5n 97.1w 95 kt...inland 36hr VT 23/0600z 21.0n 100.5w 30 kt...inland 48hr VT 23/1800z...dissipated $$ forecaster Franklin
Hurricane Dean's next venture to landfall in Mexico
Cat 1 winds 80 mph, 970 mb...
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->
Hey, it's the most heavily Republican county in Georgia. It's the least he can do!
TANKS a bunch for the new thread,,,
NOAA site slooo to load,,,
Atlantic Floater 1 : From what I see the eye is still on a
W to WNW track...
Thanks jeffers.
I didn’t know how they measured wind speed. If that is in fact how they do it, I can see why there’s sometimes a significant difference between the eye pressure and the measured wind speed.
Watch out! Hurricane Dean is on the move — http://hurricanedeanpath.ytmnd.com/
The concrete cruise dock is pretty much gone.... I can’t believe she stayed with a 7 month old!!!! First Hand Account Here:
``It wasn’t minutes of terror. It was hours,’’ said Catharine Morales, 30, a native of Montreal, Canada, who has lived in Majahual for a year. ``The walls felt like they were going to explode.’’
One of a handful people to ignore military orders to evacuate, she weathered the storm in her new brick-walled house with her husband and 7-month-old baby. Winds of 165 mph - with gusts of 200 mph, faster than the takeoff speed of many passenger jets - blew out windows and pulled pieces from their roof.
Hundreds of homes were collapsed in Majahual when Dean’s eye passed almost directly overhead, crumpling steel girders, splintering wooden structures and washing away about half of the immense concrete dock that transformed the sleepy fishing village into Mexico’s second-busiest cruise ship destination. The storm surge covered almost the entire town in waist-deep sea water.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,,-6866906,00.html
Mexican Gulf of Mexico platforms should be back in operation by Thursday/Friday. 100 mph winds should not be much of a problem, and I think the Financial Markets indicated as much.
The other factor in the fall of crude is that the US Gulf of Mexico fields were unaffected and refineries did not have any interruption in operations...
Bump for 2nd page. Thanx for all your pings, bumps and work on this thread. Very informative.
Yikes, that Three Day Tracking Map shows it hitting about central Texas! What’s with that I wonder??
That's amazing.
I keep expecting to see a picture of Howard Dean’s famous yell.