Posted on 08/21/2007 2:00:35 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Dean came ashore with 165 mph sustained winds and estimated 200 mph gusts near sparsely populated Majahual, a tourist cruise port in Costa Maya, Mexico. Dean's barometric pressure was the third lowest on record for an Atlantic Basin storm at landfall. It was the most powerful Atlantic storm at landfall since Hurricane Andrew in 1992. The storm weakened substantially as it crossed the Yucatan Peninsula, and entered into the waters of Campeche Bay as a Category 1 hurricane. Hurricane Dean's path is expected to cross a good portion of Mexico's oil fields.
Mexican President Felipe Calderon stated no fatalities have been reported, while the storm was still traversing the Yucatan Peninsula, and clean up efforts had yet to begin. Meanwhile, state and local officials announced they will conduct a damage assessment this evening, once conditions are deemed safe.
Jamaica has postponed Aug. 27 general elections until hurricane damage can be assessed. Hurricane Dean is blamed for at least 11 deaths in Jamaica, Dominican Republic, Haiti and the island of Dominica.
In Florida, the U.S. space shuttle Endeavour landed safely, after officials ordered the crew to end its mission one day early because of weather concerns at mission control in Houston, Texas.
Public Advisories Updated every three hours.
Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours
Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 5 day
forecast tracks
Buoy Data East Caribbean
Buoy Data West Caribbean
Storm Surge graphic
Satellite & Radar Images
WV Image
Tampico Radar Caution--website subject to frequent overload
Additional Resources:
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Hurricane Dean Thread III
Hurricane Dean Thread II
Hurricane Dean Thread I
Sorry if I was insulting.
I’m not running around looking at all of the MSM, but CNN is reporting that the Yucatan “dodged a bullet” and that loss of life could have been much worse. It does indeed mention downed power lines and trees, but so what? Standard part of a storm story and usually one of the first things you can determine. Reporters early on are desperate to report “something” because today’s media audience expects IMMEDIATE info, even when that’s not possible.
CNN also reports the positive that ancient ruins did fine and that folks in various areas were relieved it wasn’t worse.
I just don’t see the slant you seem to find.
Yikes, that Three Day Tracking Map shows it hitting about central Texas! What’s with that I wonder??
That’s Erin, not Dean.
That is an error on my copying and pasting links. You were the first to call me out on it. Had the same problem in one of the earlier threads, then corrected it. Subsequently failed to save it. I believe that was from Erin.
Whoops, thanks. That’s what happens when you click on links without reading everything, lol.
Thank you NautiNurse, dfwgator told me too. I was startled as that would be hitting me and I knew it was a big change from the current forecast.
Of course, hitting the peninsula can always change the course of it.
I’m glad to see you were checking out the links at the top of the thread. Those are labor intensive to pull together. Sorry I startled you with the goof.
Checking up on us eh? ;)
Atlantic Floater 1
Dean
Visible Image - Loop
Infrared Image - Loop
Shortwave IR Image - Loop
Dvorak IR Image - Loop
Water Vapor Image - Loop
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You are correct,,,NOAA is still sloooo to load but these loops agree with you,,,
JMHO : Dean could very well fall apart at this point,,,
Lookin’ : Waiting for more sat up-dates,,,
(draggin’ out 1 foot clear plastic hurricane forcastin’ ruler and clear plastic protractor)...;0)
I use a "high tech" envelope. LOL
[Sorry I startled you with the goof.]
Lol, no problem, just funny that I chose to click on THAT one and none of the others!
Our dumb bell city was talking about declaring evacuation several days ago. The last evacuation during Claudette was a horror story down here.
AT 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM PROGRESO SOUTHWARD TO CAMPECHE. A
HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM SOUTH OF CAMPECHE WESTWARD TO TAMPICO. PREPARATIONS IN THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
AT 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD TO BAHIA ALGODONES. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF TAMPICO TO BAHIA
ALGODONES.
Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on August 21, 2007
...Air Force reconnaissance plane finds Dean with 80 mph winds... At 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...the government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning from Progreso southward to Campeche. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect along the Gulf Coast of Mexico from south of Campeche westward to Tampico. Preparations in the western portion of the Hurricane Warning area should be rushed to completion. At 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...the government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning northward to Bahia Algodones. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from north of Tampico to Bahia Algodones. For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. At 1000 PM CDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Dean was located near latitude 19.9 north...longitude 93.0 west or about 215 miles... 345 km...east-northeast of Veracruz Mexico and about 295 miles...475 km...east-southeast of Tuxpan Mexico. Dean is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph...30 km/hr... and this general motion is expected to continue until landfall along the coast of central coast on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph...130 km/hr...with higher gusts. Dean is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some intensification is possible before landfall. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles...55 km...from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles...220 km. A Mexican Navy automatic station located at cayo arcas recently reported winds gusts to 72 mph...116 km/hr. Minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force hurricane hunter plane was 979 mb...28.91 inches. Storm surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels is possible...along with large and dangerous battering waves...along the coast of Mexico within the Hurricane Warning area. Dean is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches over parts of southern and central Mexico...with maximum amounts of up to 20 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Storm total rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is possible over portions of south Texas. Repeating the 1000 PM CDT position...19.9 N...93.0 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...80 mph. Minimum central pressure...979 mb. An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 100 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 400 am CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 21, 2007
Dean appears to be developing a large ragged eye on satellite imagery. An Air Force plane reached Dean and measured a minimum pressure of 979 mb and flight level winds of 84 knots. However...the SFMR has only measured 59 knots so far. Since deep convection is returning...the initial intensity is kept at 70 knots...which is a blend of both measurements and Dvorak T-numbers. Dean is forecast to restrengthen before landfall but is running out of time to become a major hurricane. After landfall...the surface circulation should rapidly become disrupted over the high terrain of central Mexico...although moisture from Dean could spread northward. Dean is moving toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 16 knots around the periphery of a strong high pressure system. This general motion is expected to continue until landfall since the steering currents are not forecast to change. The Mexican Navy automatic station located at cayo arcas recently measured sustained winds of 46 knots...gusts to 63 knots and a minimum pressure of 986.3 mb. NOAA buoy 42055 in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico measured sustained winds of 38 knots and a gust to 43 knots. Forecast positions and Max winds initial 22/0300z 19.9n 93.0w 70 kt 12hr VT 22/1200z 20.7n 95.6w 85 kt 24hr VT 23/0000z 21.4n 99.0w 40 kt...inland 36hr VT 23/1200z 22.0n 102.0w 25 kt...inland 48hr VT 24/0000z...dissipated $$ forecaster Avila
Extremely sloooow!
I use a “high tech” envelope. LOL
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I’m prone to this here rock...;0)
My friends in Cozumel can enjoy a safe evening tonight, and I hope to drink with them in a few months.
Dog Gone! Where have you been?! I figured you made so much $ in the awl bidness you bought your own island and hadn’t gotten around to launching your own sat for internet.
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