Posted on 08/21/2007 2:00:35 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Dean came ashore with 165 mph sustained winds and estimated 200 mph gusts near sparsely populated Majahual, a tourist cruise port in Costa Maya, Mexico. Dean's barometric pressure was the third lowest on record for an Atlantic Basin storm at landfall. It was the most powerful Atlantic storm at landfall since Hurricane Andrew in 1992. The storm weakened substantially as it crossed the Yucatan Peninsula, and entered into the waters of Campeche Bay as a Category 1 hurricane. Hurricane Dean's path is expected to cross a good portion of Mexico's oil fields.
Mexican President Felipe Calderon stated no fatalities have been reported, while the storm was still traversing the Yucatan Peninsula, and clean up efforts had yet to begin. Meanwhile, state and local officials announced they will conduct a damage assessment this evening, once conditions are deemed safe.
Jamaica has postponed Aug. 27 general elections until hurricane damage can be assessed. Hurricane Dean is blamed for at least 11 deaths in Jamaica, Dominican Republic, Haiti and the island of Dominica.
In Florida, the U.S. space shuttle Endeavour landed safely, after officials ordered the crew to end its mission one day early because of weather concerns at mission control in Houston, Texas.
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That does have a more northerly drift, but I wonder how much is just the eye restructuring?
True. However, the entire Gulf is basically bathwater (the SST graphic was on one of the previous threads).
Too early to say
He dead yet?
Amen to that! But unfortunately, when it rains in Arizona it floods.
I don’t really think this was a hurricane exiting the coast, but as earlier, I will await recon before making any bold calls. ;) NHC is about right... still think it might be more like 90kt at landfall.
Let’s hope that dry air he’s sucking in from the north will keep him from developing much at all...
I always get lost on that page! He does some great work.
Mexican Gulf of Mexico platforms should be back in operation by Thursday/Friday. 100 mph winds should not be much of a problem, and I think the Financial Markets indicated as much.
The other factor in the fall of crude is that the US Gulf of Mexico fields were unaffected and refineries did not have any interruption in operations...
000 URNT12 KNHC 220138 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007 A. 22/01:17:00Z B. 19 deg 42 min N 092 deg 29 min W C. 700 mb 2902 m D. 53 kt E. 042 deg 63 nm F. 132 deg 084 kt G. 043 deg 070 nm H. 979 mb I. 10 C/ 3052 m J. 13 C/ 3048 m K. 10 C/ NA L. NA M. NA N. 12345/7 O. 0.02 / 2 nm P. AF306 1604A DEAN OB 08 MAX FL WIND 84 KT NE QUAD 00:57:30 Z
Of note, there is no mention of eye structure.
Motion in the 17:03 since (just before) landfall - 283.1 degrees at 19.3 mph.
Boy, I hope it is.
yep there is an eye drop
Pressure is higher than estimated earlier... It does seem to be trying to better organize over the last hour or two. If it’s strengthened at all (and I think it has) it was probably a strong TS at Yucatan exit.
That's about a west, west, northwest. LOL
TANKS,,,Got it,,,To me,,,that shows the overall WNW movement
of the storm,,,I started my paper plot-log at LAT 16 LON 71.
Interesting to me that the eye tracked W then wobbled WNW
then W again and is still following that same general track now,,,WNW overall,,,
(tracked with 6” clear plastic hurricane trackin ruler);0)
Bump for 2nd page. Thanx for all your pings, bumps and work on this thread. Very informative.
How about a deal? I will agree with your point if you agree not to be insulting.
I understand that it was a powerful storm with lots of energy. But I don't care about the energy of the storm. I really don't. I understand that it was a powerful system. Fine. Whatever.
What I care about is people and property and damage. By those standards, the storm was not that big a deal. The predictions of death and destruction were, thankfully, not realized. The story should be that, fortunately, things are not that bad.
My point was that newscasters have a hard time giving good news, so they talk about downed trees in Mexico, as if anybody should care.
I’ve spent A LOT of time in that area, and it is dotted with palapa huts.......stick walls, grass (palapa) roofs. I just pray that most of the people moved inland before it struck.
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