Posted on 08/20/2007 7:27:15 AM PDT by .cnI redruM
Representatives of Zimbabwean President Mugabe offered a positive, upbeat assessment of their country at the most recent Southern African Development Community meeting in Lukasha, Zambia.
"Political reform is not necessary in my country because we are a democracy like any other democracy in the world," Patrick Chinamasa, minister of justice, legal and parliamentary affairs, told reporters as the two-day summit opened in the Zambian capital Lusaka. CNN (16 Aug, 2007)
Chinamasa also dismissed calls for a dialogue with Zimbabwean political opposition leaders such as Morgan Tsvangirai. He accused them of harboring plots to dethrone Robert Mugabe.
"There can be no justification to make us (engage in) dialogue," he said. "They are only interested in getting into power through unconstitutional means."
Chinamasa has deliberately ignored the fundamental fact that Zimbabwe could utterly cease to function as an independent nation by the end of this year. The economy has progressed beyond disrepair to the point of complete ruin. A western official spoke to the UK Telegraph off the record and told a very different story about what destitute African Nation.
"It is hard to be definitive, but probably within months, by the end of the year, we will see the formal economy cease to work."
He added: "One of the great dangers in all this, if Mugabe hangs on for much longer, is that the country will slip from authoritarianism to anarchy, the government will lose control of the provinces, it will lose control of the towns and you will have a situation where the central authority's writ no longer holds."
That was one unnamed western official’s optimistic case.
John Robertson, a Harare-based independent economist, went on the record as follows.
"We could be a matter of a month or two away from that kind of collapse, and some would tell you that it's happened already," he said. "They can't pay the wages that would be necessary for people to carry on working, because the price at which they're allowed to sell goods is way below the production costs."
A bevy of grim statistics supports Mr. Robertson’s assertion. Rick Moran of The American Thinker Blog, describes conditions on the ground.
The inflation rate stands at 13,000% (not a typo). More than 80% of the people live below the poverty line and are unemployed.
What Moran describes seems surreal to Americans. Zimbabwe officials exchanges 250 Zimbabwean Dollars for One US Dollar. People on the street of Harare will give you Z$400,000. The government officially pays Z$3Mil for 1 Gram of Gold.
As the wheels come off in Zimbabwe, South Africa watches from the Southern border. Refugees flee from Mugabe and no one harvests the crops. Religious leaders have even offered prayers that England would step in and re-conquer this far-flung outpost of its former empire.
Mbeki has no reason to hurry. He will, in time, be asked to intercede. The world will not be allowed to stomach what happens to people in Zimbabwe, but when someone has to solve these problems, no one will want to have the rose pinned on their lapel.
When Zimbabwe’s corrupt junta staggers off in search of a suitable place to die, someone will have to fill that vacuum. Someone will have to restore law and order. Another nation will have to rule that stretch of Africa to head off another situation like the one in the former Belgian Congo.
That someone will be Mbeki of South Africa. The dying lands of Zimbabwe will be the first new province of a South African empire.
Who in the world would want it? Why would you buy into a stock that consists of nothing but liabilities?
The only prescription for this madness is a nice, clean head-shot, but the people are so weak from starvation they can not lift a gun, and the military confiscated all of those years ago.
Guys, it may look good on paper to throw out the white land-owners and to put black farmers in their place, but to throw out the white farmers and put black cronies of the Presidente in charge, who have no farming experience at all? Jeeze, intelligence like that means you deserve to die.
Most former Rhodesians had to leave it all behind, like many others expelled. This windfall did not help this demented autocrat.
Its a tragedy that nobody in the west seemed to care that white people were driven from homes by black people ONLY because of the color of their skin. If this happened anywhere but Africa, people would be outraged.
“The dying lands of Zimbabwe will be the first new province of a South African empire.”
And that will be the first really good news out of Africa in a long time. Finally, Africans can begin the normal historical process of forming real states, whether through diplomacy or “other means”.
I doubt seriously that Mbeki has the ability to do a ground up rebuild as will be required in Z. I further doubt that S.A. has the infrastucture to support his attempt for very long.
My wife is from South Africa, and I’ve been there twice, and frankly, why not? Both Europe and Asia went through a period of empire building, and when it’s good - I’m thinking of the Austro-Hungarian Empire here as an example -the empire can bring together lots of people and introduce them to modernity and rule of law. I’d rather see the Africans focusing on education, building up human capital, and become modern people rather than spending their time in intertribal fratricide.
One more thing about South Africa: when I was there last year, I was amazed at the number of illegal immigrants from central and southern Africa. South Africa is far better off than any other place in sub-Saharan Africa. I spent a lot of time in the schools there, and there are students who are eager to learn. Even the townships are filling up with small businesses and the occasional home that looks like an American ranch house. The roads had less potholes than they did in 1996. The tourist spots, especially, were upgraded to the western standard. Paranoia about crime had lessened since 1996. I can easily see the country as a world power in 100 years, if the focus and the motivation of the people there can hold. South Africa has a lot of connections to the rest of Africa, with trade and goods.
If South Africa can recreate the breadbasket of Africa by taking it over, fine with me. I’m willing to bet that oil in Angola looks pretty good, too.
South Africa won’t have to foot the bill.
The situation in Zimbabwe will grow so horrible that the international community, UN, and idle rich everywhere in the West will throw (mostly taxpayer) money at South Africa for “rebuilding” Zimbabwe.
Angola (oil!) and Sierra Leonne (diamonds) are in a similar position, though not quite as extreme.
Playing the right geopolitics, a South African leader could gain international support for expanding SA control into all of the above, plus Sudan.
Yeah, South Africa really could take over (most of) Africa.
Of course, South Africa would have to act before SA itself melts down (its own land “reform” ideas will put it into Zimbabwe’s place in another generation)...but the money pouring in to its privateers (SA is big on providing private security, especially in Iraq) could do it.
Points well made.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.