Posted on 08/17/2007 12:36:00 PM PDT by edsheppa
There's a saying, opinions are like a-holes, everybody's got one. Ain't it true. Even here at FR there are vociferous posters on both sides of every issue. Often on all ten sides of an issue. Wouldn't it be great to know who's probably talking sense from the BSers? I think it would. And there's a way to do it, prediction markets.
There are a lot of them out there, and no doubt many FR posters participate in them. Many probably do quite well. But there's no way to tie their track record on those markets to their posted opinions on FR. I suggest that FreeRepublic have it's own home-grown prediction market, tied to registered posters' identities with public track records available. Then when a poster opines that Huckabee might overtake the field or it'll be Hillary and Obama or the DOW is headed for 1000 (or 100,000), you can tell whether to take him seriously with a quick check of his FR prediction record.
So, what say you all? Is it a good idea or bad? How might it be carried out?
It is a HELLA GOOD IDEA!!!!!
I say .... err.... hummm err..
I predict that 99% of FReepers will say the republicans will win the next election.
Neither of which are allowed in the FR sidebar.
I have no idea how you would keep track
killjoy
Like Rush, I keep track of my record and I am 93% correct.
I tend to screw up predicting that Nancy Pelosi will see the light on foreign trade matters.
lol...
You’re proposing taking out the fun from opinions.
And, are opinions the same as predictions? There may be a relationship, but they are not the same.
Opinions can change on a daily basis and depending upon circumstances. Likewise with predictions. Remember the hurricane predictions before the beginning of the year? Circumstances change and predictions have to change.
The only people that are good with predictions are those with 20/20 hindsight. That would be just about every one of us.
If the credit contraction continues for any extended periot of time, the dow is going to tank, where will it bottom? I don’t know, it depends on how long the contraction remains and how tight it remains.
If the credit contraction remains like it is now, for a quarter or more, you are going to see some very large companies/funds etc with business models that rely on cheap and pleantiful credit go down in flames.
If Countrywide goes down, which if the capital crunch remains incredibly tight, is a realistic possibility, for more than a quarter, you are looking at the originator of 13% of all mortgages going down spectacularly.
Hedge funds relying on high leverage will collapse, these too me are the biggest perpetrators of the current mess, so the more of them that die under their own weight, the sooner reality will return to all markets. The question is how quickly this will happen... if credit remains insanely tight, it will happen fast, and be a huge quick fall.... if it loosens some, you will still see the fall, but over a more spread out time frame.
One thing is for sure, credit is going to be much tougher to come by then it has been in a long time, and this will cause depreciation in the housing market, and in the commodities market etc etc... Question is just how fast its going to hit.
I won’t predict a bottom, but I will say, it will get far uglier before it gets better.
To err is human; to forgive is divine.
Bill O'Really, izzat you?.....
You would need work with an established market, to have a mechanism by which a Freeper sandbox could be created within their existing market.
Dow 14,500 by New Years Day.
We had a New Years prediction thread at the beginning of 2007.
I predict that the next election will be won by the party with the most votes counted.
(Does that make me part of the 1%?)
My wife doesn't appreciate hearing either of mine ...
Maybe I should have said 95%
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