Posted on 08/09/2007 1:52:23 PM PDT by Brujo
Global warming is forecast to set in with a vengeance after 2009, with at least half of the five following years expected to be hotter than 1998, the warmest year on record, scientists reported on Thursday.
Climate experts have long predicted a general warming trend over the 21st century spurred by the greenhouse effect, but this new study gets more specific about what is likely to happen in the decade that started in 2005.
To make this kind of prediction, researchers at Britain's Met Office -- which deals with meteorology -- made a computer model that takes into account such natural phenomena as the El Nino pattern in the Pacific Ocean and other fluctuations in ocean circulation and heat content.
A forecast of the next decade is particularly useful, because climate could be dominated over this period by these natural changes, rather than human-caused global warming, study author Douglas Smith said by telephone.
In research published in the journal Science, Smith and his colleagues predicted that the next three or four years would show little warming despite an overall forecast that saw warming over the decade.
"There is ... particular interest in the coming decade, which represents a key planning horizon for infrastructure upgrades, insurance, energy policy and business development," Smith and his co-authors noted.
The real heat will start after 2009, they said.
...
(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...
Or, it won't.
What this sounds like is that their short term forecast is so far off that they have decided the smart thing to do is put the forecast farther into the future in the hope that more people will forget what they predicted or they will be dead and, in that case, it won’t really matter; either way, the money keeps coming in.
Either way, the researchers will continue to get grants.
I swear I saw a thread last night or this morning that stated that 1998 was reevaluated and 1934 beat it out.
"Just you wait. It's coming! The end is near! ...it's just another year or two away!"
Are Global WarmingTM alarmists going to take to wearing sandwich boards on street corners next?
They now face the most difficult task of all! They must force reality to follow the line that they have scribed depicting the oncoming disaster.
Good luck with that! Remember "computer models" are not predictions, they are solutions to a set of equations assumed to be relevant which massage the data they have selected to input.
Regards,
GtG
PS I'll try to keep their projections in mind so I can ask them how that's working out for them in another few years.
You did. Here it is: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1878850/posts.
It turns out that an air conditioning unit had been placed too close to a temperature sensor, so the sensor was reading too high.
Pretty amazing that something that simple could swing the results that far. Kind of makes one wonder what other simple mistakes might have crept into other data. Hmm ...
This is an important point:
A forecast of the next decade is particularly useful, because climate could be dominated over this period by these natural changes, rather than human-caused global warming, study author Douglas Smith said by telephone.
What do you want to bet that this statement is not included in most news reports.
Let’s see, Planet X (Niburu, Wormwood...the ancient Chinese called it the Red Dragon) first RE-discovered in 1981 by NASA.
Every 3600 years, like clockwork, it’s not like every friggin ancient civilization HASN’T had this well documented throughout recorded history.
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
It certainly seems that way. It's terribly embarrassing and discouraging for those of us who'd like to have a calm, adult conversation about what's going on.
Really.... One of the summers I lived in Dallas/Ft. Worth it hit 100+ for a record number of days in a row. I think it was 30 days or something.
Lev 26:3-4 ¶ If ye walk in my statutes, and keep my commandments, and do them; Then I will give you rain in due season, and the land shall yield her increase, and the trees of the field shall yield their fruit.
Lev 26:14-39 ¶ But if ye will not hearken unto me, and will not do all these commandments; (read for ALL the curses for disobedience)
Lev 26:19 And I will break the pride of your power; and I will make your heaven as iron, and your earth as brass:
And more in Amos:
Amos 4:7-9 And also I have withholden the rain from you, when [there were] yet three months to the harvest: and I caused it to rain upon one city, and caused it not to rain upon another city: one piece was rained upon, and the piece whereupon it rained not withered. So two [or] three cities wandered unto one city, to drink water; but they were not satisfied: yet have ye not returned unto me, saith the LORD. I have smitten you with blasting and mildew: when your gardens and your vineyards and your fig trees and your olive trees increased, the palmerworm devoured [them]: yet have ye not returned unto me, saith the LORD.
That's good enough for me. Al Gore wasn't even on to AGW then.
Hmm, seems like a CYA to explain why there won't be any measurable results between now and 2009. Let's get those excuses in early!
Started it, got distracted, and then posted.
Been there big time. ;-)
Geez, even the technical market analysts go back further than that. What slackers!
Hmm, seems like a CYA to explain why there won't be any measurable results between now and 2009. Let's get those excuses in early!
Or it could be that the new models will show that the climate changes are natural, which is the conclusion that several scientists have come to after looking at computer models that take into account such natural phenomena as the El Nino pattern in the Pacific Ocean and other fluctuations in ocean circulation and heat content. See here:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1878730/posts?page=28#28
After all, that’ll be everyone, right?
Forecasters can’t predict next week - how are they going to predict two years from now?
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