Posted on 04/24/2007 4:24:56 AM PDT by sukhoi-30mki
Taiwan says it would win war with China
By Annie Huang, Associated Press Writer | April 24, 2007
TAIPEI, Taiwan --A computer simulation projected that China could land forces on rival Taiwan, but they would be repulsed after two weeks of fierce fighting and harsh losses to both sides, Taiwan's military said Tuesday.
The complex simulation involved a scenario of China invading the island, 100 miles off its coast, in 2012.
Taiwan and China split amid civil war in 1949, but Beijing considers Taiwan Chinese territory. The computer scenario was based on China's repeated threats to attack if Taiwan ever tries to formalize its de facto independence.
The military released its findings from the simulation to reporters on Tuesday.
In the simulation, Chinese ships ferry forces to the island, backed by heavy missile barrages and pinpoint airstrikes on Taiwanese military bases and other strategic facilities.
The "invaders" establish beachheads along Taiwan's west coast, though their arrival is delayed for several days by Taiwanese missile strikes on mainland military bases, and by Taiwanese navy counterattacks.
(Excerpt) Read more at boston.com ...
Unbelievable. AP strikes again. Not so subtle jab from AP against the Taiwanese "interlopers" that "stole" the rightful communist territory of Formosa?
I have a pretty good idea.
Allow me to point out to you that a “modern” navy was not required at Dunkirk.
Dunkirk was an EVACUATION, not an invasion. Two totally different things. One thing to frantically try to escape somewhere without all of your equipment and supplies (which were left at Dunkirk), another completely different thing to make an opposed invasion.
And the majority of the troops evacuated at Dunkirk were evacuated by the Royal Navy, despite the involvement of small British civilian craft to pick up some of the troops.
Thousands of little craft carrying platoons across 110 miles is certainly very doable and actually very difficult to defend against if you do not control the air.
And armor, heavy artillery, and the obscene amount of supplies needed for modern combat are carried in these little craft?
Opposed amphibious invasions are the most complex thing in warfare. Such an invasion of Taiwan would be more difficult and complex than either the invasion of Okinawa or Normandy in World War II. And the PRC has ZERO experience in conducting one.
Remember, Victor/Liberty ships in WWII were being completed in 60 days.
And were essentially unarmed.
Also keep in mind we're so used to fighting fanatical/suicidal enemies now, and the odd example of the Japanese in World War II, that we can forget that not everyone is the same. While the initial Chinese forces in the Korean War were pretty ideologically motivated and fanatical, we killed all those guys, and otherwise in Chinese history there's no particular pattern of suicidal/fighting to the death military forces.
The American Plan Purple for fighting the Japanese in World War II called for the Pacific Fleet steaming from Pearl Harbor to engage the Imperial Navy in an epic battleship confrontation, with the Japanese Navy swept from the seas in about six months, while American garrisons in the Phillipines and Wake Island bravely held out.
In September 1939 there were five German divisions between Berlin and the west. Belgium and Holland could have mobilized thirty divisons between them. If the Belgians had invaded Germany in 1939, it would have been a race to Berlin, with the German army at the wrong starting line, engaged with a very determined Polish resistance. Of course, the Belgians and Dutch had concluded that it was not their fight.
No plan survives first contact with the enemy.
The PRC has to consider this as well, any invasion plan would depend on very fragile assumptions. The defense of Taiwan is probably more robust with respect to assumptions than its invasion.
I would love to see the details on this, but they are obviously secret.
There were more than 30 shipbuilding companies during WWII pumping out ships.
We now have only 2 large shipbuilders in the country. 3 if you count GD making subs.
We could never duplicate what we did in the BIG ONE because infrastructure is not there any longer.
Do we even know what the ChiCom’s capacity for shipbuilding is?
“In the simulation, Chinese ships ferry forces to the island, backed by heavy missile barrages and pinpoint airstrikes on Taiwanese military bases and other strategic facilities. “
I don’t believe the Chinese have the sealift capability to launch and invasion of this magnitude. Consider just how many ships it took to invade any of the islands in the Pacific in World War Two, then consider the Taiwan anti ship missiles simply couldn’t miss a fleet that large, in that confined of an area of ocean.
A false straw man argument.
Your first mistake is making the assumption that you NEED all of those supplies to sustain a military operation. In truth, you only need rations (including water), ammunitions, fuel and means of communications to conduct a combat operation. Anything else is extra and not required. To assume it does is to make the classic large Army mistake in that you assume the other guy simply must do things the same way that you do.
Allow me to provide an example from your prior message. Your comment about the liberty ships... true, they were unarmed. How difficult would be to retro fit a existing cargo ship ... say an ocean barge, with a battery of MRLS and a supply of rockets? Or change that, how about turning one into a low cost helicopter refueling station. land on the deck... get the fuel and then fly off to the next ship to load up on troops or ammunition or rockets?
Also, you mentioned the Chinese forces as having no experience in conducting such an assault. But in this scenario, they would have the experience of one major assault.
Consider the damage that would be done on the Taiwanese forces during the first assault. Much of their military would be reduced or nonexistent. The population of 25 million would likely be severally reduced.
Never underestimate the enemy. Heck, just buying the WWII surplus ships refit for operations and then conduct a naval blockade of Taiwan would be a very effective means of reducing the Taiwanese ability to respond to such an attack.
And who says it has to be a naval / marine assault. 10,000 helicopters and a couple thousand sea planes and a thousand bombers and a few hundred attack fighters could overwhelm the remaining Taiwanese forces.
Bomb Three Gorges Dam
Break that and you've immediately made the cost of invasion too high.
Bomb the 3 gorges dam using what?It’s beyond the practical reach of Taiwan’s jets & missiles.
Remember that they had knowledge sharing with South Africa and Israel back in the 60's
Hmm,if I were Taiwan’s president & had nukes,why would I put several of my best pilots at risk to nuke something a 1000 miles away when there are several Chinese military installations close by??Since you brought up nukes,why bother about the 3 gorges??
All available sources seem to suggest Taiwan doesn’t have nukes or atleast hasn’t restarted what papa Bush nudged them to stop.
Exactly analagous to the situation in the mid-east. The dictatorships there have NO interest in resolving the Israeli-Pali conflict. The Israelis are their boogey-man, and having a peaceful situation there benefits NONE of these regimes.
If anything, this statement suggests Taiwan is distinct from the PRC, and that the PRC--being the invaders--are going into a foreign territory.
Hit your enemies where they are weakest and where your strikes will do the most damage.
Kill 10,000 people on a hardened military base ... big deal to the average Chinese man.
Kill 3 million plus with floods from a dam busting? Yeah, the chinese are going to think twice.
If Chinese see them doing that to their brothers on Taiwan, the Communist government would be overthrown.
Atta boy.
of course, dunno how far Democratic Taiwan would’ve anticipated commie Beijing’s willingness and ability to play scorched earth.....
In any case, pays to listen when Taipei is talking. Unlike, say, Arafart or Saddam or Musharraf, thy aren’t given to random hyperbole.
While not doing Global Warming models...
In league with Islamacists ?
I've always believed that China is a "silent partner" on the part of the Islamacists.
Anyone remember the 100,000 assault rifles shipped by China in the 1990s that were intercepted by Customs Agents in the US ?
Don't leave out the control of the Ithsmus of Panama by the Chinese (another gift that keeps on giving, thank you Jimmy Carter).
No, in this case I think sam_paine is right. The AP has placed quotation marks around the word, implying that they are not true invaders.
Check the article.
Good catch sam.
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