Posted on 04/23/2007 10:01:49 AM PDT by John Cena
April 23, 2007 For the fourth straight week, Illinois Senator Barack Obama (D) has gained ground and he has finally caught New York Senator Hillary Clinton in the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination. It’s now Obama 32% Clinton 32% and former North Carolina Senator John Edwards holding steady at 17%. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson is a distant fourth at 3%. Senators Chris Dodd and Joe Biden each attract 1% support. So does General Wesley Clark.
Obama has been steadily gaining ground during April. Last week, Clinton had a two-point lead. Two weeks ago, it was Clinton by five. The week before that, the former First Lady was up by seven. Our last release in March found Clinton enjoying a double digit lead. Clinton now holds a narrow edge among white voters while Obama leads by 16% among African-Americans.
A separate survey showed that Obama has the highest level of core support among all Presidential candidates—33% of voters say they’d definitely vote for him if he’s on the ballot in November 2008.
Rasmussen Reports releases national polling data on the Democratic nomination process every Monday and on the Republican race each Tuesday. The current survey of 579 Likely Democratic Primary Voters was conducted April 16-19, 2007. The margin of sampling error is +/-4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
Among all voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 50% and unfavorably by 49%. Obama’s numbers are a bit stronger—59% favorable and 34% unfavorable. The two candidates are essentially even among Democrats—Clinton is viewed favorably by 74% in her party while Obama is viewed favorably by 72%. Among unaffiliated voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 50%, Obama by 67%.
All Democratic candidates issued statements last week opposing the Supreme Court ruling on partial-birth abortion. That ruling was little noticed due to the tragedy at Virginia Tech. Just 40% of Americans knew how the Court ruled on the issue. Most who knew agreed with the ruling.
The Democrats were cautious in their statements about gun control following the Virginia Tech shootings. While there has been an increase in support for stricter gun control laws in the aftermath of that horrific event, less than half of Americans want stricter gun control laws.
Iraq remains the Democrats most potent issue—just 33% of voters now believe history will judge the U.S. mission in Iraq a success.
Yesterday was Earth Day and 45% of American voters see Global Warming as a Very Serious problem. Another 28% say it is Somewhat Serious. There is a significant divide over whether the human activity is the cause or if the Warming is simply part of a long-term planetary trend. (More Below)
Advertisment While Obama and Clinton are the frontrunners among Democrats, Edwards does best in general election match-ups. He leads all GOP hopefuls and is the only Democrat to lead the Republican frontrunner, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. New results in the Obama-Giuliani match-up will be released on Wednesday. Clinton and Giuliani are essentially tied.
Rasmussen Reports continuously updates favorability ratings and general election match-ups for all Democratic and Republican candidates. Also available are ratings for Members of Congress, Other Political Figures, and Journalists.
Rasmussen Reports also monitors underlying party identification trends and has found a substantial shift away from the GOP over the past six months.
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Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.
Rasmussen Reports’ Election 2006 coverage has been praised for its accuracy and reliability. Michael Barone, Senior Writer for U.S. News & World Report and co-author of The Almanac of American Politics, mentions, “One clear lesson from the Republican victory of 2004 and the Democratic victory of 2006 is that the best place to look for polls that are spot on is RasmussenReports.com." And University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato states, “In election campaigns, I’ve learned to look for the Rasmussen results. In my experience, they are right on the money. There is no question Rasmussen produces some of the most accurate and reliable polls in the country today.”
Rasmussen Reports was also the nation's most accurate polling firm during the 2004 Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.
During both Election 2004 and Election 2006, RasmussenReports.com was the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
ping
You gotta admit, she’s one square with the poopulance.
If Hillary’s downward spiral continues, she will NOT win the nomination. Thank God.
I still think that attack ad linking her to 1984 and Orwellian thinking did a lot more damage than people realize.
Her problem is still the same. She is a basically distasteful, repugnant person who you dislike more and more with each encounter. If she can’t learn to turn on the charm like her “husband”, she’s dead meat.
Yeah, I’m not counting her out, but for her the slope is getting steeper, not easier.
“hillary! truly sucks as a candidate.”
Hillary! will be the next president of the united states. they will tout her as the first woman president, but she will actually be the first totalitarian-leftist president to be elected by the “american electorate”.
the feminists will vote for her. soccer moms will vote for her. all the secular types will vote for her. she will be worshipped. the left will have a collective orgasm that will shake the earth.
WRONG Oprah and DeGeneres have not called out the Ditz VOTE YET..
American women WILL HAVE A SOCIALIST President 2008..
A SOCIALIST WOMEN President..
Voters who admit they will vote Democrat in ‘08, 45%.
Voters who will vote Republican, 35%.
Third Party, 6%
The remainder, 15% undecided, (more than likely the usual independents/swing voters who lean moderate to Liberal.
The country as a whole has gone to the left/moderate as some of us are trying to point out.
This has nothing to do with the message, only points out reality to some here who still believe the country is still overwhelmingly Conservative. That concept has changed drastically in the last few years.
Did you leave out O'Donut Hole and WahWah on purpose?
Hope Obama has his Last Will and Testament in good shape!
She lost the lead right after she announced that she’d make Bill Clinton a roving ambassador to the world.
Obama may very well pull it off and win the nomination. The Black caucus has become a great power to be reckoned with, especially among the Democrats.
The media will not hack up a Black Democrat.
I have little doubt that it’s in the mail.
Yep. I think that Obama is going to be Rodhamized.
“You’re assuming rationality on the part of the base, a fact not in evidence. I do not underestimate Hillary or her machine. She’ll go after Obama and conservatives. (IMO)”
The average democrat isn’t a member of Moveon nor dailykos or DU. They remember it was the Clinton’s that caused the party to lose the House after more than four decades.
As for the ‘Clinton machine’....lets not get too carried away. The best the so called ‘machine’ could do was over a decade ago, gaining Bill Clinton 49 percent of the vote in a three candidate race featuring a unelectable to national office GOP candidate (Bob ‘its my turn, damnit!’ Dole).
You know my view on Hilary Clinton’s future better than most in this forum.
You have to admit, with each set of poll numbers, its looking more and more that I’ve been right about this one all along, contrary to the popular political ‘wisdom’.
I don’t know who the candidate for either party will be, but I know Hillary Clinton will not be one of them.
Point taken. But with BO passing the Hildebeast I’m sure he is in no mood to entertain thoughts of being second on that ticket. Perhaps the most interesting question is whether Hitlary would settle for #2. And considering that she is a liberal racist the fact that he is black would probably be too much for her to bear.
No of course not. This makes him a perfect companion for Hillary who also gets some immunity by being a woman. They will be called the "it's about time" team and will be heralded as a great step forward in American politics. Anyone who doesn't vote for them will be portrayed as a frightened misogynistic racist. ;-)
That's all she his? How true, on so many levels!
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