Posted on 03/20/2007 8:21:54 AM PDT by areafiftyone
March 20, 2007
Giuliani Top Choice Among Both Moderate, Conservative RepublicansGingrich, Romney do better among conservatives than moderates
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GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- With the 2008 Republican presidential field beginning to come into shape, there are still questions and apparent opportunities for a favorite "conservative" candidate to emerge. The three leading announced contenders -- Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, and Mitt Romney -- have taken stances in the past that are out of step, if not unpopular, with conservative voters, although all have taken recent steps to try to reassure conservatives. The key question is whether conservatives will be able to look past any differences they may have with these candidates and support one of them for the nomination -- or hope that a more solidly conservative candidate emerges from the back of the pack or enters the race.
An analysis of Republicans' primary nomination preferences in recent Gallup Polls show that while conservative Republicans are less likely to support Rudy Giuliani than liberal or moderate Republicans, the former New York City mayor is the clear leader among both groups. John McCain, who is in second among both groups, also fares slightly better among moderates than conservatives. Though well behind the two leaders, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney are much more likely to be supported by conservatives than moderates and liberals. At the same time, conservative and moderate Republicans' basic favorable ratings of Giuliani are highly positive and similar between the two groups, as are their ratings of McCain. Romney's favorable ratings are better among conservatives than moderate and liberal Republicans.
Nomination Preference by Ideology
Gallup combined data from its last two Republican nomination trial heats, conducted Feb. 9-11, 2007, and Mar. 2-4, 2007, to get a better sense of how the candidates fare among ideological groups. Both polls showed Giuliani leading among all Republicans over McCain by a healthy margin, with Gingrich third.
Since relatively few Republicans identify as liberals, the responses of liberals and moderates are combined into one group. Republicans are about twice as likely to identify as conservative when asked about their ideological leanings than as either moderate or liberal.
The analysis shows that Giuliani is the top choice among both conservative Republicans and liberal and moderate Republicans, though he has greater support among the latter group. McCain finishes second among both groups, and also polling slightly better among moderates and liberal Republicans.
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Preference for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, |
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|
Moderate/ |
% |
Conservative |
% |
|
Rudy Giuliani |
48 |
Rudy Giuliani |
38 |
|
John McCain |
26 |
John McCain |
20 |
|
Mitt Romney |
3 |
Newt Gingrich |
14 |
|
George Pataki |
2 |
Mitt Romney |
8 |
|
Sam Brownback |
2 |
Tommy Thompson |
2 |
|
Newt Gingrich |
2 |
|
|
|
Tommy Thompson |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
All others |
3 |
All others |
9 |
|
|
|
||
|
No preference |
11 |
No preference |
9 |
Giuliani and McCain are the only candidates with any significant support among moderate and liberal Republicans, with everyone else at 3% or less. On the other hand, Gingrich (14%) and Romney (8%) get higher support among conservative Republicans than liberal or moderate Republicans, but both trail the leading candidates by substantial margins among conservatives.
Gingrich has yet to make his presidential intentions known, saying he will decide whether to formally enter the race later this year. His showing among conservative Republicans indicates he could be a factor in the race, particularly since Republican primary and caucus voters are mostly conservative in their ideological orientation.
If Gingrich does not enter the race, Romney and Giuliani may benefit more than the other Republican candidates among conservatives. When the data are re-calculated by substituting Gingrich supporters' second choice for the nomination in place of their Gingrich vote, Giuliani's support among conservative Republicans increases to 43% (from 38%) and Romney pushes into the double digits at 11%. McCain's support is generally unchanged (21% compared to 20%) with Gingrich in the race. No other candidate gains more than a point in support among conservatives.
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Preference for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, |
|||
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Moderate/ |
% |
Conservative |
% |
|
Rudy Giuliani |
49% |
Rudy Giuliani |
43% |
|
John McCain |
27% |
John McCain |
21% |
|
Mitt Romney |
3% |
Mitt Romney |
11% |
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George Pataki |
3% |
Sam Brownback |
2% |
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Sam Brownback |
2% |
Duncan Hunter |
2% |
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Tommy Thompson |
2% |
Tommy Thompson |
2% |
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Tom Tancredo |
2% |
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All others |
4% |
All others |
7% |
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|
|
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No preference |
11% |
No preference |
10% |
Favorable Ratings of Candidates
In addition to measuring the candidates' current support for the nomination, Gallup has also asked Republicans for their overall opinions (favorable or unfavorable) of the leading contenders in the last two months. In general, Giuliani (80%) is viewed more favorably than McCain (68%) by Republicans regardless of their ideology. Eighty percent of both conservative and moderate Republicans have a favorable opinion of Giuliani. McCain's favorable ratings are 66% among moderate and liberal Republicans and 69% among conservative Republicans.
While Republicans' opinions of both Giuliani and McCain are similar by ideology, there is more variation in views of Romney, though the difference is largely due to conservatives being more familiar with him than moderates and liberals. Among conservative Republicans, 38% view Romney favorably, 13% unfavorably, and 49% do not know him well enough to give a rating. Among moderate and liberal Republicans, 23% have a favorable view, 11% an unfavorable one, and 66% cannot rate him.
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Favorable Ratings for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, |
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Favorable |
Un- |
No |
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% |
% |
% |
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Rudy Giuliani |
|
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All Republicans |
80 |
11 |
10 |
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Moderate/Liberal |
80 |
7 |
13 |
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Conservative |
80 |
13 |
8 |
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John McCain |
|
|
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All Republicans |
68 |
19 |
13 |
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Moderate/Liberal |
66 |
17 |
17 |
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Conservative |
69 |
21 |
10 |
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|
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Mitt Romney |
|
|
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All Republicans |
32 |
12 |
56 |
|
Moderate/Liberal |
23 |
11 |
66 |
|
Conservative |
38 |
13 |
49 |
Gingrich's favorable ratings were asked in just one poll, the March 2-4, 2007, poll. Fifty-four percent of Republicans viewed him favorably and 30% unfavorably in that poll, with 16% not having an opinion. Thus, Republicans give Gingrich the highest negative rating among the leading candidates. The data suggest that he is viewed much more favorably by conservative Republicans than by moderate and liberal Republicans so he may not be quite as vulnerable in the primaries as the overall data suggest. Gingrich would have a much harder time in the general election, though, as he is the only leading contender of either party who has a net negative favorable rating (29% favorable and 49% unfavorable) among all Americans.
The favorable ratings show that conservative Republicans are apparently quite comfortable with both Giuliani and McCain -- both are given positive reviews by more than two-thirds of conservative Republicans. That would indicate that there may not be a substantial push to draft a conservative candidate among the Republican rank and file. However, that is not to say that if one emerges in the next several months that the candidate could not be competitive with the current group of frontrunners.
Survey Methods
These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 849 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 9-11, 2007, and Mar. 2-4, 2007. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±4 percentage points.
Results based on the sample of 552 conservative Republicans have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±5 percentage points.
Results based on the sample of 289 moderate or liberal Republicans have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±6 percentage points.In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
>>>This report talks about a leak
And document shredding on our POWs.
>>>>but what does that have to do with Senator McCain's time as a POW?
You tell me. You brought that up, not me.
You act like the DBmedia with that pic. Pick an unflattering pic. People need to see him in action. He sets the right tone in response to Demonrats and the media and exudes warmth with his leadership style. Perfect balance. And don't ever compare Duncan Hunter to Howard Dean.
Wonder what a poll of 30 million or more Legal and Illegal Aliens VOTING habits would produce?..
WHAT?.. what?.. Jeese it was just a question..
It's called...PRINCIPLES, MORALS, ETHICS...and UPHOLDING THE CONSTITUTION.
I simply refuse to sell out to the devil or the devil-lite candidates (that does include Rudy).
lol. I don't know. I hope more of this comes out during the primaries so that I get the truth no matter what it is.
Well, Fred Thompson is currently a visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. That indicates to me that he understands classical economics, something a big government protectionist like Hunter does not. Thompson is also on the record defending social conservatism, and understands the war on terror.
In short, Thompson is probably as closest to Reagan as we're going to get. I'm skeptical if Thompson can do the mechanics-- fundraising, building the ground team, winning the debates, building political friendships, handling 24/7 attacks from the Clinton War Room and their allies in the War Room. But I'm open-minded and may be surprised.
Giuliani's still my guy for the time being-- he reminds the public of 911, makes a convincing argument to fight the WOT in understandable terms, and will have the widest margin of victory, which will help up take back the Congress. Whether Rudy can make it out of the primaries once the NARAL and anti-gun stuff hits the airwaves remains to be seen.
Oh I will never join him and I continue to fight (about to be thrown off Lucianne if I don't miss my guess) but I think it's clear we are fighting a losing battle.
Not the military people I know.
I know Newt has no chance due to his already being a 'name' but not liked by the public and not helping himself with his sex scandal while Speaker as Clintoon's impeachment was going on. Now, let us in on why Hunter is unelectable? I seriously want you people to lay it out why Hunter is supposedly unelectable. Fred Thompson isn't going to cut it either because he isn't as big a star as you seem to think. Law and Order doesn't have that many viewers and he will have to sell the war having missed his opportunity to serve his country and Republicans are going to have to answer for that during this election in selling Iraq to the people.
Sadly, the information is all out there. The media doesn't cover it.
That train left without many of the passengers. Those passengers that didn't get on that train will be very happy when the train derails, that they weren't on board!
They will be glad they took the one on the right track instead of the one off to the left.
Rudy did some good stuff in NY. I'm sure he made some mistakes too, as he is a human being like the rest of us.
My issues with Rudy revolve around the social issues. . .
and his 'history'. If Rudy manages to get the nomination, there's a great deal of dirty laundry he's going to have to deal with. The Dems won't show the least bit of mercy, of course. I truly think that is what would cause Rudy to lose the general election.
If he does get the nomination, I would vote for him in the general election. But I do think he'll lose.
The entire Military is behind McCain and that is a pretty large voting block.
Entire???! Are you sure about that? Because the Military member I am married to sure isn't.
2. Let's see what happens in January and February, especially if Fred starts campaigning.
All those #'s go to S#it when Fred Thompson get's added to the mix.
When the new news doesn't work for the liberals, they recirculate the old news. On average, this data is more than a month old, and they release it now?
And how about a comparison of the February data with the March data so's we could look at trends? Or isn't that a positive thing for the liberals and therefore buried?
What a crappy way to run a "prestigious" polling operation.
"BINGO"
Go directly to the head of the class.
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