Posted on 03/05/2007 6:45:59 PM PST by Congressman Billybob
This weekend we were at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington. All but one of the 2008 Republican candidates were there. The conservatives sought to buttress their support from the right, to seek the support of the whole party. Rudy Guiliani was there to show he doesn’t have two heads. John McCain, to his disgrace and harm, did not bother to show.
We had a chance to hear the candidates. We came away with an conclusion which we shared with Bill Schneider of CNN in an interview. Since our mailbox didn’t fill up with e-mails about that interview, we presume it didn’t air. Here’s our conclusion:
Rudy Guiliani will defeat Hillary Clinton to become the next President of the United States.
Here’s why: Conservatives of different stripes, and on different issues, like Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, Sam Brownback, Duncan Hunter, possibly Newt Gingrich, were at this conference seeking the “enthusiastic support” of the conservatives in the Republican Party. Each got some of that, with most of it at the CPAC meeting going to Mitt Romney.
But this is the simple, real world truth; the Republican Party consists of more than just the bedrock conservatives – even if they were monolithic, which they are not. And the 51% that it takes to win a national election consists of more than just the Republican Party.
Look at the polls which have come out in the last two weeks. All show the same pattern. Guiliani leads among Republicans, and he also leads against all currently-known Democrats. Why is that? The answer jumps out of the statistics. Many more independents and Democrats – yes, Democrats – support Guiliani, than any other Republican.
On the other side of the equation, it seems clear that the Hillary Clinton juggernaut will roll over all challengers, beginning with Barack Obama, and extending to the hapless John Edwards. But her statistics in a general election are weak. She has more in-house support, from her own party, than any other candidate. But when you get beyond her party, she is the weakest candidate among independents and the opposite party.
It’s happened before to both Republican and Democrat candidates. A particular candidate “owns” the nomination; no one could stop him (and now her). On the other hand, it’s clear even during the nomination process that this candidate would probably fail in the general election. Like lemmings, the party follows him (now her) over the cliff in the next election.
We watched something happen while Guiliani was speaking to the largely skeptical audience at CPAC. It demonstrated why those polling results are correct, and why Rudy will win both the Republican nomination and the general election.
First, he didn’t lie to the audience, or tapdance around them. Repeatedly, he said “we do not agree on all things.” He went on to discuss the five points he thought mattered. One was education, about which Guiliani said, “I made a mistake.” Originally, he thought he could improve the public schools themselves. Now, he has concluded that only parental choice to take their children out of failed public schools, will force them to improve.
Admitting a mistake, and taking a new and better direction, is a rare and attractive quality in a politician. Rudy showed that.
But most of all, he concentrated on his factual accomplishments in years of public service. He demonstrated he’s not just a man of words and slogans, but a man of accomplishment – in a rough environment and against high odds. That quality, actually doing things rather than forever spouting vague promises and idle slogans, will lead to Guiliani’s victory over Hillary Clinton.
The last ditch defense of some conservatives against Guiliani is attacking his sexuality through pictures of him when dressed as a woman for a charitable group. I mean, what man hasn’t dressed as a woman for charity?
Paint and Powder is a Baltimore organization that’s close to a century and a half old. In the beginning, it was all male. It’s long since coeducational, but it retains a “drag” routine in its shows. The largest men are cast as the females, and the smallest as the males, because that made the dances funnier.
I can vouch for the fact that it’s darned difficult to dance in high heels. I can also vouch for the fact that fishnet stockings make the soles of your feet look and feel like you’ve been standing on a waffle iron. No pictures survive of me in a wig and a Carmen Miranda dress. The American electorate can take a joke, and expect their politicians to be real humans rather than stuffed shirts. So, such attacks on Guiliani (or me) won’t amount to a hill of beans.
Expect Guiliani to carry most of the Bush states plus several of the Kerry-Gore states, and win going away.
- 30 -
About the Author: John Armor is a lawyer specializing in constitutional law, who may again be a candidate for Congress in the 11th District of North Carolina. John_Armor@aya.yale.edu
- 30 -
"Well, considering the totalitarian bent in hillary, beating her is by far the best thing anyone could do for the country."
Two little facts here, one, she hasn't won the nod yet and two we still haven't picked our guy.
Usually those ahead this early never make it to the end.
Democrats and Independents will vote for him because they like his views and policies, and conservatives will vote for him because they have to.
Not a very impressive argument!
He's got great poll numbers and that's nothing to sneeze at.
My biggest worry with him is that he has the same foriegn policy and military credentials as Woodrow Wilson- none.
Hillary has much more experience in those areas- though she has very little.
I think that fact, and his left of center views, will bring down those poll numbers eventually- and then he has nothing to offer.
It's early days... the Republican Party may do better yet.
No, by that I mean I support Guiliani.
If I'm wrong about that, it becomes a very interesting election.
John / Billybob
You are assuming I would oppose Giuliani if another conservative republican ran. I might not.
And you can chose to lose the battle to Hillary but mark my words, if we lose to Hillary, we may lose the war too. She is very dangerous.
Sometimes, the best choice is not your choice. But I am shouting in the wind. Have a moral victory if you wish. But the result may be more than you intended.
I could be wrong, but I don't think you pinged a Rudy list to this.
I don't think "we" was within 100 miles of the CPAC conference in Washington, and it gets worse after the first sentence in the column.
The single question one should ask theirself is 'how fast do I want to ruin our constitutional republic?'
Both have the similar goals. One will achieve them much faster.
Indeed.
Politically speaking, Libertarian types are a poison worthy only of being shat out the first available orifice.
"At least he hasn't climbed atop a tank yet."
Are you serious with that little dig? It is pretty lame.
McCain wasn't supposed to be there. Isn't it a conservative forum?
"McCain wasn't supposed to be there. Isn't it a conservative forum?"
Great point, why did Rudy show up?
I agree with Cajungirl and with the Congressman. If I could pick the next President it would be Newt, but if it comes down to the Hildebeast and Rudy, I'll swim a rising creek to vote for Rudy. We've had Reagan and two Bushes and still have abortion. We've had Clinton and still no gun grabbing. Rudy promises conservative judges and I accept that promise. 2008 will be tough: 21 Republican Senators are up and only 12 Dims. We need a candidate who can draw at least some support from the Blue states. Polls now show Rudy beating Hillary in New Jersey.
RINO-rudy makes it to the general, and they'll be the MOTHER-of-ALL (to paraphrase rotting saddam) Splits in the Republican party, and this will hand the presidency over to the dems on a silver platter.
A fine "plan", and it makes SO much more sense than supporting and voting for a man that supports, at least, a MAJORITY of our party platform. /sarc
Haven't you read about his marching in Gay Pride parades?
And haven't you also read that he has dressed as a woman on several times in public?
If you have not, you should read about Ruby before reaplying about something you are unaware of.
Thanks for the clarification! (SORRY! Pet peeve...)
Oystir, please see post #74.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.