Posted on 03/05/2007 6:45:59 PM PST by Congressman Billybob
This weekend we were at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington. All but one of the 2008 Republican candidates were there. The conservatives sought to buttress their support from the right, to seek the support of the whole party. Rudy Guiliani was there to show he doesn’t have two heads. John McCain, to his disgrace and harm, did not bother to show.
We had a chance to hear the candidates. We came away with an conclusion which we shared with Bill Schneider of CNN in an interview. Since our mailbox didn’t fill up with e-mails about that interview, we presume it didn’t air. Here’s our conclusion:
Rudy Guiliani will defeat Hillary Clinton to become the next President of the United States.
Here’s why: Conservatives of different stripes, and on different issues, like Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, Sam Brownback, Duncan Hunter, possibly Newt Gingrich, were at this conference seeking the “enthusiastic support” of the conservatives in the Republican Party. Each got some of that, with most of it at the CPAC meeting going to Mitt Romney.
But this is the simple, real world truth; the Republican Party consists of more than just the bedrock conservatives – even if they were monolithic, which they are not. And the 51% that it takes to win a national election consists of more than just the Republican Party.
Look at the polls which have come out in the last two weeks. All show the same pattern. Guiliani leads among Republicans, and he also leads against all currently-known Democrats. Why is that? The answer jumps out of the statistics. Many more independents and Democrats – yes, Democrats – support Guiliani, than any other Republican.
On the other side of the equation, it seems clear that the Hillary Clinton juggernaut will roll over all challengers, beginning with Barack Obama, and extending to the hapless John Edwards. But her statistics in a general election are weak. She has more in-house support, from her own party, than any other candidate. But when you get beyond her party, she is the weakest candidate among independents and the opposite party.
It’s happened before to both Republican and Democrat candidates. A particular candidate “owns” the nomination; no one could stop him (and now her). On the other hand, it’s clear even during the nomination process that this candidate would probably fail in the general election. Like lemmings, the party follows him (now her) over the cliff in the next election.
We watched something happen while Guiliani was speaking to the largely skeptical audience at CPAC. It demonstrated why those polling results are correct, and why Rudy will win both the Republican nomination and the general election.
First, he didn’t lie to the audience, or tapdance around them. Repeatedly, he said “we do not agree on all things.” He went on to discuss the five points he thought mattered. One was education, about which Guiliani said, “I made a mistake.” Originally, he thought he could improve the public schools themselves. Now, he has concluded that only parental choice to take their children out of failed public schools, will force them to improve.
Admitting a mistake, and taking a new and better direction, is a rare and attractive quality in a politician. Rudy showed that.
But most of all, he concentrated on his factual accomplishments in years of public service. He demonstrated he’s not just a man of words and slogans, but a man of accomplishment – in a rough environment and against high odds. That quality, actually doing things rather than forever spouting vague promises and idle slogans, will lead to Guiliani’s victory over Hillary Clinton.
The last ditch defense of some conservatives against Guiliani is attacking his sexuality through pictures of him when dressed as a woman for a charitable group. I mean, what man hasn’t dressed as a woman for charity?
Paint and Powder is a Baltimore organization that’s close to a century and a half old. In the beginning, it was all male. It’s long since coeducational, but it retains a “drag” routine in its shows. The largest men are cast as the females, and the smallest as the males, because that made the dances funnier.
I can vouch for the fact that it’s darned difficult to dance in high heels. I can also vouch for the fact that fishnet stockings make the soles of your feet look and feel like you’ve been standing on a waffle iron. No pictures survive of me in a wig and a Carmen Miranda dress. The American electorate can take a joke, and expect their politicians to be real humans rather than stuffed shirts. So, such attacks on Guiliani (or me) won’t amount to a hill of beans.
Expect Guiliani to carry most of the Bush states plus several of the Kerry-Gore states, and win going away.
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About the Author: John Armor is a lawyer specializing in constitutional law, who may again be a candidate for Congress in the 11th District of North Carolina. John_Armor@aya.yale.edu
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No problem! :-)
Much better that the country is run by a Repblican leftist wacko!
Some one needs to show all of the Conservatives Rudy has appointed to anything including dog catcher in the past before I would even consider voting for him!
Probably a rhetorical question; but I have a non-rhetorical answer: because his middle name is hussein; and he is a communist.
Thanks for your assessment. Guiliani's stock just went up with me again when Ted Olson announced that he would fight for Janice Rodger Brown on the cout.
As long as he doesn't do any damage to our social conservative agenda, he's ok in my book. Plus he will be a "kick-a**" president on terror.
"I already support Guiliani. I don't want to give the leftist whackos a chance to run this country."
You want the Rino Whackos to run the country. A difference without distinction.
That is a vote for the lesser of two evils.
Barely !
What makes you think "we" was at CPAC and can give a "first hand report"?
Well, Shucks!
Let's just cancel the primary! Why go through all that hassle and expense, ya know? /s
You have spoken volumes and spoken them well. If you've read any of my postings here, you will see that I also factor in his other courageous acts in the face of fierce criticism. There were the Castro Incident, the Arafat Embassy arrest, the refusal to meet with Al Sharpton, and other brave acts when everyone was against him and no one stood with him.
He stood alone on his conviction of what was morally right and didn’t suck up all of theat PC crud.
Thank you for adding a new dimension to a strong leader. I’m tired of Managers in the Whitehouse. I want a leader this time.
Rudy/Newt in 2008 – 2016. Then Newt/?? in 2016 and beyond.
I'll go for a leader and a person of principles, and steadfastness before I vote for an ideologue.
Secondarily, I'll vote for anybody but Hillary.
IF Rudy G is the nominee, I'll work hard to get him elected.
...And no one else on the Republican horizon can -- the other end of the story.
I think your conclusions are correct,Congressman.
I know many life-long Republicans, the names of whom, if I could share them, would knock your socks off. They would not vote for George W. They sat out the election, refusing to vote for Kerry.
They are enthusiastically supporting Rudy, contributing to his campaign, and fund-raising for him.
I also know many life-long Dems, including older folks in my own family, who never voted GOP in their lives. They have told me that if it is Hillary or Obama, they might just have to vote for Rudy. Also much younger friends who have said the same.
Of course, this is all anecdotal, but I have the feeling that there are many people who would either come home to the GOP to vote for Rudy, or Dems who would cast their ballot for Rudy because they would never vote for a Hillary or Obama.
You mean a distinction without a difference. There is a difference.
It's better to win with Guiliani than to lose with a "true conservative", whoever that may be.
Rudy Patudie also said his policies are not much different than Clinton's.
Thanks for the observations. The analysis seems convincing.
I agree with you 100%. See my reply to Post 31 and you will see my additional comments.
And by that you mean, "I already support Guiliani. I don't want to give the tough, law and order leftist whackos a chance to run this country."
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