Posted on 03/05/2007 6:45:59 PM PST by Congressman Billybob
This weekend we were at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington. All but one of the 2008 Republican candidates were there. The conservatives sought to buttress their support from the right, to seek the support of the whole party. Rudy Guiliani was there to show he doesn’t have two heads. John McCain, to his disgrace and harm, did not bother to show.
We had a chance to hear the candidates. We came away with an conclusion which we shared with Bill Schneider of CNN in an interview. Since our mailbox didn’t fill up with e-mails about that interview, we presume it didn’t air. Here’s our conclusion:
Rudy Guiliani will defeat Hillary Clinton to become the next President of the United States.
Here’s why: Conservatives of different stripes, and on different issues, like Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, Sam Brownback, Duncan Hunter, possibly Newt Gingrich, were at this conference seeking the “enthusiastic support” of the conservatives in the Republican Party. Each got some of that, with most of it at the CPAC meeting going to Mitt Romney.
But this is the simple, real world truth; the Republican Party consists of more than just the bedrock conservatives – even if they were monolithic, which they are not. And the 51% that it takes to win a national election consists of more than just the Republican Party.
Look at the polls which have come out in the last two weeks. All show the same pattern. Guiliani leads among Republicans, and he also leads against all currently-known Democrats. Why is that? The answer jumps out of the statistics. Many more independents and Democrats – yes, Democrats – support Guiliani, than any other Republican.
On the other side of the equation, it seems clear that the Hillary Clinton juggernaut will roll over all challengers, beginning with Barack Obama, and extending to the hapless John Edwards. But her statistics in a general election are weak. She has more in-house support, from her own party, than any other candidate. But when you get beyond her party, she is the weakest candidate among independents and the opposite party.
It’s happened before to both Republican and Democrat candidates. A particular candidate “owns” the nomination; no one could stop him (and now her). On the other hand, it’s clear even during the nomination process that this candidate would probably fail in the general election. Like lemmings, the party follows him (now her) over the cliff in the next election.
We watched something happen while Guiliani was speaking to the largely skeptical audience at CPAC. It demonstrated why those polling results are correct, and why Rudy will win both the Republican nomination and the general election.
First, he didn’t lie to the audience, or tapdance around them. Repeatedly, he said “we do not agree on all things.” He went on to discuss the five points he thought mattered. One was education, about which Guiliani said, “I made a mistake.” Originally, he thought he could improve the public schools themselves. Now, he has concluded that only parental choice to take their children out of failed public schools, will force them to improve.
Admitting a mistake, and taking a new and better direction, is a rare and attractive quality in a politician. Rudy showed that.
But most of all, he concentrated on his factual accomplishments in years of public service. He demonstrated he’s not just a man of words and slogans, but a man of accomplishment – in a rough environment and against high odds. That quality, actually doing things rather than forever spouting vague promises and idle slogans, will lead to Guiliani’s victory over Hillary Clinton.
The last ditch defense of some conservatives against Guiliani is attacking his sexuality through pictures of him when dressed as a woman for a charitable group. I mean, what man hasn’t dressed as a woman for charity?
Paint and Powder is a Baltimore organization that’s close to a century and a half old. In the beginning, it was all male. It’s long since coeducational, but it retains a “drag” routine in its shows. The largest men are cast as the females, and the smallest as the males, because that made the dances funnier.
I can vouch for the fact that it’s darned difficult to dance in high heels. I can also vouch for the fact that fishnet stockings make the soles of your feet look and feel like you’ve been standing on a waffle iron. No pictures survive of me in a wig and a Carmen Miranda dress. The American electorate can take a joke, and expect their politicians to be real humans rather than stuffed shirts. So, such attacks on Guiliani (or me) won’t amount to a hill of beans.
Expect Guiliani to carry most of the Bush states plus several of the Kerry-Gore states, and win going away.
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About the Author: John Armor is a lawyer specializing in constitutional law, who may again be a candidate for Congress in the 11th District of North Carolina. John_Armor@aya.yale.edu
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Talk and record are two different things.
I am in San Diego, largest city and county at the Mexican border.
People are moving out of SoCal because it is close to being a suburb of Mexico.
No amnesty, no guest workers, finish the fence now.
I can understand how Israel feels with the Muzzies at their border
No kidding.
Can you imagine Duncan Hunter ever promoting Sanctuary Cities?!
Hunter is the only one who walks the walk.
If the rest would follow his example, the remainder of the fence would have been built
What a great example for his, and America's, sons.
Sure Giuliani is pro-choice. So is Obama. So is Hillary. Do you want Hillary or Obama as president along with a democrat congress?
Let the courts deal with guns and abortion. Let the president deal with terror, taxes, appointing judges, immigration and the things he is supposed to deal with.
Don't be stupid.
Shame on you John. Who would have thought you were a consensus kind of guy.
Amen and bump.
Right now, it's still early, and anything can happen from today to November 4, 2008.
Sort of like one feeding their children to the alligators, in the hopes that they would be eaten last.
Research a bit further and you will find few familar names associated with the club--FDR,JFK, JQ Adams, Teddy Roosevelt!
Here is a great source of anti-Rudy patudie stuff. Actually it is quotes from him which may as well be anti-Rudy.
http://www.freerepublic.com/~flashbunny/
I combined those two sets of information with my knowledge -- shared by most people on FR -- about the differences between red and blue states. The column was the result of that.
Most US elections come down to a choice between just two candidates. In only two elections in 43 years of voting have I agreed 100% with any candidate. In all but two of the others, I have pulled the lever for the more acceptable of the two candidates.
Most voters calculate as I do. They support the best candidate they can find. But if that candidate is not nominated, then they make a tough choice in the general election.
John / Billybob
Excellent analysis. Thanks for sharing it.
Great column, CBB. I found the attacks on you for daring to write this objective analysis to be hilarious.
This column reminds me of this one:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/939395/posts
That analysis turned out to be deadly accurate.
Rudy is quite simply the only popular Republican in the country, the only candidate with strong support in every region, the only candidate who appeals to members of both parties and independents, and the one with the most name recognition (except for Bill's WINO).
In addition, Republican candidates who lead early get the nomination -- unlike on the 'rat side. Unless Rudy screws it up, which I don't expect, he'll get the nomination.
Rudy also is helped by the fact that the other three main candidates have obvious flaws, and the rest are a bunch of mini-mees. Particularly amusing are the members of the "Jaeger Battalion" -- who are no doubt passionate in their support but lack the numbers to have a realistic shot at victory.
I see the SC Primary as key. Rudy has a strong organization down there, and his selection to speak to graduates of The Citadel is IMHO hugh and series! That indicated support from the movers and shakers of the Palmetto State. If Rudy wins SC, I don't see how anyone could stop him from the nomination.
If it is Rudy v. Hillary that will be the biggest NY battle since Ali-Frazier I.
Yours is a very thoughtful post, and I agree with almost every word you wrote. My only caveat to your comment is the legitimacy of Mitt Romney. I think he's papered over some serious ideological cracks.
We come down in the same place at the end. If it is Rudy against Hillary, the answer has to be Rudy.
Cordially, John
" If it is Rudy against Hillary,"
That would practically guarantee a conservative third party candidate would show up and split the vote to give Hillary the win. Why would you be pushing for that if you claim to be a conservative?
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