Posted on 02/12/2007 6:43:36 AM PST by areafiftyone
MANCHESTER, N.H. - New Hampshire residents likely to vote in the Republican presidential primary a year from now think more highly of former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani than any of his rivals, a poll released Tuesday shows.
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Giuliani's net favorability rating — the proportion of people viewing him favorably minus the proportion viewing him unfavorably — was 56 percent, well ahead of Sen. John McCain (news, bio, voting record), 32 percent, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, 26 percent, in the University of New Hampshire poll for WMUR-TV in Manchester.
"He's the lesser-known candidate, but he has that rock star quality," poll director Andy Smith said of Giuliani. "He has a charisma that was built after 9-11."
This long before an election, political professionals pay more attention to favorability than voters' choices if they had to vote today. McCain and Giuliani were essentially tied at about 27 percent on that question among likely GOP primary voters, followed by Romney at 13 percent and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 9 percent.
The GOP portion of the telephone poll reached 311 likely voters from Thursday to Monday and had an error margin of plus or minus 5.6 percentage points.
Former Sen. John Edwards and Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama (news, bio, voting record) had net favorability ratings ranging from 61 percent to 55 percent, too close to be statistically significant.
When asked for whom they would vote, 35 percent of likely Democratic voters picked Clinton, 21 percent Obama and 15 percent Edwards. Eight percent chose former Vice President Al Gore, who is not running.
The Democratic portion of the phone poll reached 353 likely voters and had an error margin of plus or minus 5.2 percentage points.
Independents may vote in either primary, and 68 percent of them indicated they planned to vote in the Democratic primary compared to 32 percent leaning toward the GOP contest.
"This will hurt Republican candidates who try to appeal to more moderate, independent voters," Smith said.
http://www.galluppoll.com/content/?ci=26428&pg=1
Giuliani's Candidacy Jeopardized by His Social Platform?
The same January poll asked Republicans who they would prefer to see win if the Republican nomination narrows down to just Giuliani and McCain. Given this choice, 50% prefer Giuliani while 42% choose McCain. Notably, Giuliani does particularly well with self-described conservative Republicans (52% for Giuliani vs. 39% for McCain), while "moderate" Republicans prefer McCain (52% vs. 43%).
However, when Republicans are told in the context of the survey that Giuliani supports same-sex civil unions and holds a pro-choice position on abortion, the net effect on their expressed chances of backing him is negative. Knowing his social views, more than 4 in 10 Republicans indicate a reduced willingness to support Giuliani. Twenty-five percent say they would be less willing to vote for him, and 18% say they would rule out voting for him entirely.
Only 13% of Republicans take the contrary tack, saying they are more likely to vote for Giuliani as a result of his being pro-choice and pro same-sex civil union. The remainder, (41%) say this information about Giuliani does not affect their decision to vote for him either way.
The frank reality is Rudy can afford to win an assortment of conservative southern States by several or even many points less than Bush did, as long as he as well or better elsewhere.
For example, Bush won Georgia in 2000 55% to 43% in 2000, and 58% to 41% in 2004.
Electoral Votes are Electoral Votes and you still get Georgia's even if you win 52% to 47%.
Boy that is one REALLY dumb statement. Peyton Manning is an OUTSTANDING qb worth every bit of publicity he gets. He is a consummate team player and a winner.
Nothing gives me more grief than having to say that since he demolished by beloved Bears Super Bowl Sunday.
Since you don't know anything about football I will have to forgive that remark. ANY football fan knows that Manning is at the very top of his profession and will be a shoo in for the Hall of Fame on his first ballor.
And you actually think someone who is pro-choice and pro-gun-control has a snowballs' chance in hell of winning Georgia.
That's one hell of a big IF, given our continuing involvement Iraq and Bush's inability to articulate a popular message.
The Democrat Congress needs to be spectacularly incompetent in order for them to alienate enough moderates and Independents into voting GOP.
Bookmark for more painful expressions of pro-Guiliani social liberals.
| Poll | Date | Sample | McCain | Giuliani | Romney | Gingrich | Spread |
| RCP Average | 01/15 - 02/05 | - | 28.3 | 25.0 | 16.8 | 6.5 | McCain +3.3 |
| CNN/WMUR | 02/01 - 02/05 | 311 LV | 28 | 27 | 13 | 9 | McCain +1.0 |
| American Res. Group | 01/31 - 02/01 | 600 LV | 27 | 20 | 20 | 11 | McCain +7.0 |
| SurveyUSA | 01/26 - 01/28 | 412 LV | 32 | 33 | 21 | -- | Giuliani +1.0 |
| Zogby | 01/15 - 01/17 | 503 LV | 26 | 20 | 13 | 6 | McCain +6.0 |
| See All New Hampshire Republican Primary Polling Data | |||||||
Sure, he's polling well now, but wait until people learn more about him. He's not likely to go up in numbers when people learn the facts! They already know his pro-WOT stance, and relative fisal conservativeness. Good points, yeah, but when they learn the baggage parts, they will run bigtime!
If he does get the R nod, you can be fully assured he will get hammered with it by the DNC machine.
The reason for the '06 losses are people do in fact hate Bush and do generally dislike the Iraq War - the polls are accurate.
People with the idea that if we'd magically run candidates more strongly supporting (insert your obsessive hobby horse issue here) we'd have done better are living in the usual fantasy world.
The entire focus of the Democratic TV ads here in Maryland against Gov. Ehrlich and Mike Steele was, and I'm not exagerrating, "Here's a photo showing Ehrlich standing only FIVE FEET AWAY from Bush."
"The Bush network delivers Texas to Rudy in the Republican primaries."
Mugger v. Honest Citizen: "Can't we just be friends?"
" " v. Freeper: ........Bang!
" " v. Texan: ..........Bang bang bang bang bang bang click click click
"Hey, Joe Bob--this Eye-talian feller frum Nyoo York City
wants to take away yer guns? Can we count on yer support?"
Bang bang etc.
Dear TommyDale,
"...and 18% say they would rule out voting for him entirely."
This is the real killer. This translates to roughly 9 million votes. Even taking the lower value of 16%, it's still in the range of 8 million votes.
Of course, then there's this:
"Twenty-five percent say they would be less willing to vote for him..."
"Only 13% of Republicans take the contrary tack,..."
That's another net loss of 12%. But these are folks who say they'd be less willing, not that they'd rule him out entirely. He'll keep a portion of these.
But even if he only loses half that net 12%, another 6%, then he's lost around a quarter of folks who nearly always vote Republican for the general election. That's somewhere around 12 million votes or more.
If these numbers bear out, Antoninus' prediction of 38% in the general for Mr. Giuliani may be overly optimistic.
sitetest
No one who thinks seriously about politics should be surprized as the Ultras drive more reasonable people away from the GOP. The Ultras are determined to ignore ALL lessons from 2006 and are preparing to ram their heads into that brick wall again. However, their isolating themselves from reality will be their undoing as they are revealed to be fanatics without a chance of formulating a viable opponent to Guiliani.
That is one of three reasons.
The other two are GOP scandals and the leftward drift of the GOP, especially with earmarks. The GOP did not give a compelling reason to voters why they should stay in power.
I have no doubt that if Rudy is nominated, the DNC will get plenty of help from socio-con dead-enders.
areafiftyone, Could you please put me on the poll ping list?
With an open primary on both sides in 2008, the conservative activists will be very important on the Republican side in New Hampshire. Now, Rudy might win in a three-way split with 30% of the vote, but it won't be easy without the gun and pro-life people. You know, the ones who do standouts at the polls all day when it's 10 degrees with a howling wind.
Any breathing bipedal hominid will win Georgia in 2008 against Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama.
The scandals were crucial in Ohio, yes.
It mainly was a vote against Bush, though.
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