[sitetest]

Dear TommyDale,

"...and 18% say they would rule out voting for him entirely."

This is the real killer. This translates to roughly 9 million votes. Even taking the lower value of 16%, it's still in the range of 8 million votes.

Of course, then there's this:

"Twenty-five percent say they would be less willing to vote for him..."

"Only 13% of Republicans take the contrary tack,..."

That's another net loss of 12%. But these are folks who say they'd be less willing, not that they'd rule him out entirely. He'll keep a portion of these.

But even if he only loses half that net 12%, another 6%, then he's lost around a quarter of folks who nearly always vote Republican for the general election. That's somewhere around 12 million votes or more.

If these numbers bear out, Antoninus' prediction of 38% in the general for Mr. Giuliani may be overly optimistic.


sitetest

[Antoninus]

But even if he only loses half that net 12%, another 6%, then he's lost around a quarter of folks who nearly always vote Republican for the general election. That's somewhere around 12 million votes or more. If these numbers bear out, Antoninus' prediction of 38% in the general for Mr. Giuliani may be overly optimistic.

It really is scary that any right-thinking person could imagine that Giuliani has any chance at all of being elected president as a Republican.

He's Hillary's ticket to the White House.

[TommyDale]

Yep, and they all know this. The math doesn't work well for Giuliani, and I really think that is why he has been slow in actually officially declaring his candidacy. If he loses 25% of the GOP vote, and the Democrats gain 15 to 20 million new liberal voters, the GOP will be doomed to defeat.

To top off all of this, if Giuliani is nominated the churches that signed up millions in 2000 and especially in 2004 will not lift a finger to help him. They brought out a huge vote in 2004.

[freespirited]

But even if he only loses half that net 12%, another 6%, then he's lost around a quarter of folks who nearly always vote Republican for the general election. That's somewhere around 12 million votes or more.

If these numbers bear out, Antoninus' prediction of 38% in the general for Mr. Giuliani may be overly optimistic.

You can't extrapolate those numbers to the general election. The reason is that in the general he will certainly be running against someone who favors fewer restrictions on abortion than he does and is at least as much in favor of gay rights.