Yep, and they all know this. The math doesn't work well for Giuliani, and I really think that is why he has been slow in actually officially declaring his candidacy. If he loses 25% of the GOP vote, and the Democrats gain 15 to 20 million new liberal voters, the GOP will be doomed to defeat.
To top off all of this, if Giuliani is nominated the churches that signed up millions in 2000 and especially in 2004 will not lift a finger to help him. They brought out a huge vote in 2004.
Evangelicals WILL stay home rather that vote for a scumbag like Rudy! Some will even be voting for OBAMA!
Dear TommyDale,
"If he loses 25% of the GOP vote, and the Democrats gain 15 to 20 million new liberal voters, the GOP will be doomed to defeat."
If he loses 25% of the base, the Dems don't need to sign up any new liberal voters.
"To top off all of this, if Giuliani is nominated the churches that signed up millions in 2000 and especially in 2004 will not lift a finger to help him. They brought out a huge vote in 2004."
Yet, the Dems nearly kept up with us in terms of registering new folks and GOTV efforts. A lot of Republicans look proudly at the fact that Mr. Bush took over 62 million votes, more than any other candidate in history.
But they forget that Mr. Kerry took over 60 million votes, more than any other candidate in history but one.
To spot the Dems 8 - 12 million votes by alienating a chunk of the social conservative part of the base is asinine, insane.
There just aren't enough pro-war folks who voted for Mr. Kerry to make up even half that amount, or even a fourth of that amount.
Of course, the whole effort to position Mr. Giuliani as the candidate who is the most hawkish on the war truly begs the question of whether that's actually a winning position in the general election.
From what I can see, one of two things will happen between now and 2008.
The war will go well, and success will relegate the issue to a lower standing. Folks who hang their candidacy on being the most hawkish on the war will not have an advantage.
The war will go poorly, and the issue will still be a hot one. Folks who hang their candidacy on being the most hawkish on the war will not have an advantage.
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