http://www.galluppoll.com/content/?ci=26428&pg=1
Giuliani's Candidacy Jeopardized by His Social Platform?
The same January poll asked Republicans who they would prefer to see win if the Republican nomination narrows down to just Giuliani and McCain. Given this choice, 50% prefer Giuliani while 42% choose McCain. Notably, Giuliani does particularly well with self-described conservative Republicans (52% for Giuliani vs. 39% for McCain), while "moderate" Republicans prefer McCain (52% vs. 43%).
However, when Republicans are told in the context of the survey that Giuliani supports same-sex civil unions and holds a pro-choice position on abortion, the net effect on their expressed chances of backing him is negative. Knowing his social views, more than 4 in 10 Republicans indicate a reduced willingness to support Giuliani. Twenty-five percent say they would be less willing to vote for him, and 18% say they would rule out voting for him entirely.
Only 13% of Republicans take the contrary tack, saying they are more likely to vote for Giuliani as a result of his being pro-choice and pro same-sex civil union. The remainder, (41%) say this information about Giuliani does not affect their decision to vote for him either way.
Dear TommyDale,
"...and 18% say they would rule out voting for him entirely."
This is the real killer. This translates to roughly 9 million votes. Even taking the lower value of 16%, it's still in the range of 8 million votes.
Of course, then there's this:
"Twenty-five percent say they would be less willing to vote for him..."
"Only 13% of Republicans take the contrary tack,..."
That's another net loss of 12%. But these are folks who say they'd be less willing, not that they'd rule him out entirely. He'll keep a portion of these.
But even if he only loses half that net 12%, another 6%, then he's lost around a quarter of folks who nearly always vote Republican for the general election. That's somewhere around 12 million votes or more.
If these numbers bear out, Antoninus' prediction of 38% in the general for Mr. Giuliani may be overly optimistic.
sitetest