Posted on 02/12/2007 6:43:36 AM PST by areafiftyone
MANCHESTER, N.H. - New Hampshire residents likely to vote in the Republican presidential primary a year from now think more highly of former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani than any of his rivals, a poll released Tuesday shows.
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Giuliani's net favorability rating — the proportion of people viewing him favorably minus the proportion viewing him unfavorably — was 56 percent, well ahead of Sen. John McCain (news, bio, voting record), 32 percent, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, 26 percent, in the University of New Hampshire poll for WMUR-TV in Manchester.
"He's the lesser-known candidate, but he has that rock star quality," poll director Andy Smith said of Giuliani. "He has a charisma that was built after 9-11."
This long before an election, political professionals pay more attention to favorability than voters' choices if they had to vote today. McCain and Giuliani were essentially tied at about 27 percent on that question among likely GOP primary voters, followed by Romney at 13 percent and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 9 percent.
The GOP portion of the telephone poll reached 311 likely voters from Thursday to Monday and had an error margin of plus or minus 5.6 percentage points.
Former Sen. John Edwards and Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama (news, bio, voting record) had net favorability ratings ranging from 61 percent to 55 percent, too close to be statistically significant.
When asked for whom they would vote, 35 percent of likely Democratic voters picked Clinton, 21 percent Obama and 15 percent Edwards. Eight percent chose former Vice President Al Gore, who is not running.
The Democratic portion of the phone poll reached 353 likely voters and had an error margin of plus or minus 5.2 percentage points.
Independents may vote in either primary, and 68 percent of them indicated they planned to vote in the Democratic primary compared to 32 percent leaning toward the GOP contest.
"This will hurt Republican candidates who try to appeal to more moderate, independent voters," Smith said.
Well that could happen, but keep in mind the 2006 popular votte results were 54-46 dor the DEMS. If in 2008 the congressional popular vote shifts by 2 points in favor of the GOP to 53-47 for the DEMs, the GOP will pick up probably 2-5 seats.....there are still some vulnerable GOP seats, but much of the low hanging fruit has been picked by the DEMs.
The Bush network delivers Texas to Rudy in the Republican primaries.
Rudy takes California, New York, and Florida in the primaries too.
Do the math. That's an uphill battle for any of the other contenders.
Giuiliani can easily afford to lose a couple hundred fanatics off of Free Republic, just as the Democratic nominee can afford to lose the couple hundred most fanatical people off of Democratic Underground.
The most important part of the math is the primaries for all intents and purposes last a total of 3 weeks.
You can't build momemntum as a surprise candidate in 3 weeks.
And now you are putting words in my mouth. Any more lowbrow tactics you wish to pull?
Anyone who passes your ideological purity test garners 1% of the vote unless he's got Perot's bankroll.
And another lowbrow tactic. Ideological purity? Hardly. However, giving up just about every conservative value to support someone like Rudy is capitulation, not pragmatism.
And to repeat, since you're intentionally ignoring it, I am not supporting Rudy right now.
You sure have the Rudy booster dishonest debating techniques down pat. You'll have no trouble making being asssimilated.
And your faavorite for the "ALL" leader is??
If you cared to open your eyes you would see the same numbers from the South essentially. Polls from Georgia, South Carolina and Florida have been posted here with similiarly positive results for Guiliani. Most likely you already know this but prefer to act as if you don't.
You will see every social conservative church pastor in America speak out against abortion and partial birth abortion, pointing out that candidates who don't oppose them are not worthy of a Christian's vote. It will all be done legally, without naming candidates, but the effect will be that the Religious Right will turn dramatically away from Rudy Giuliani.
I live in the South. Rudy will never fly here. The Evangelicals will stay home.
ROFL. This might be the funniest reply on FR in the last couple of months.
In theory, no; in practice, it depends. New Hampshire voters who are registered as Independents can vote in either primary. New Hampshire also has election day voter registration, and I'm sure some out-of-staters come up here, claim to be residents, and then vote.
"leftist media" I thought that they were propelling McCain?
My thoughts as well.
Howard Dean led John Kerry 40-12 in New Hampshire as of December 3rd, 2003.
Polls now are meaningless. They are pure name recognition.
BINGO!
"'If your average voter really knew his stances on social issues, they'd drop him like a red headed step-child!""
I think what you mean is the average primary GOP voter....not the average general election voter. Given that Kerry came within one state of winning, your statement without the qualification of "primary" isnt valid at all.
FACT: The USA is an increasingly liberal country
There is no "kid gloves of media" for Guiliani. Any praise of him by it is completely grudging or Left handed.
It media hates him because it can neither buffalo him nor beat him in debate. If that is what you are waiting for get ready to loose.
"He's tapping into Bush '41's Texas network."
That network should be gettin' pretty small by now, at least I hope so. Rockefeller RINO republicans are the real reason for '06 losses.
""Just wait until the New Hampshire pro-lifers and gun people start working on Rudy. It won't be pretty, but I'll enjoy it (heh heh heh).""
really??? Where were those people to support GWB Bush in 2000??? NH of 2008 isnt NH of 1980 or 1976. They have been overwhelmed by transplants from MA and CT.
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