The frank reality is Rudy can afford to win an assortment of conservative southern States by several or even many points less than Bush did, as long as he as well or better elsewhere.
For example, Bush won Georgia in 2000 55% to 43% in 2000, and 58% to 41% in 2004.
Electoral Votes are Electoral Votes and you still get Georgia's even if you win 52% to 47%.
And you actually think someone who is pro-choice and pro-gun-control has a snowballs' chance in hell of winning Georgia.
This is precisely the point, you are correct.
In fact polling nationally has shown that both McCain and Guliani do worse than Bush did in the south in 2004. However, not enough to flip any states. Meanwhile both do bette rthan Bush ddi in the west, including CO and NV where the DEMs could win and significantly better in the NE and Midwest.
There are a number of close states that could flip to the GOP with McCain or Guliani with out losing many red ones:
The biggest risks with McCain or Guliani would be MO, OH and IA....but those might be lost regardless.
The argument against Guliani is stronger if we elected our leaders with the popular vote than the EV.
For instance GA goes from 58% GOP in 2004 to 52% but NJ goes from 46% to 51%...total GOP votes fall but EV increases