Our Blithering World ["inevitable decision about Iran"]

National Review Online ^ | 01FEB07 | Michael Ledeen

[familyop]

Where’s the vision and leadership?

Things are never the way we expect they will be, and so it is today, as we stagger and blither our way toward the inevitable decision about Iran. I had imagined that we would finally face up to the necessity of confronting the terror masters of Tehran after some dreadful event that would compel the president to pound the table and say “enough!”

Instead, it has been more like Chinese water torture, or maybe straws piling up on our national back. Never has a country strained so hard to avoid a conflict as the United States concerning Iran. They have waged war against us for 28 years, and we are only now beginning to contemplate the possibility of a response.

That is about the most one can say on behalf of our feckless national-security team, whose leaders are trying to be a little bit pregnant instead of trying to win this thing. Indeed, even in the face of a torrent of information showing Iranian support for the terror war against us, some diplomats and spooks are trying, in their usual too-clever-by-half ways, to relive one of my favorite jokes, the one about the woman accused of stealing her neighbor’s pot. She says to the judge “I never took the pot. And it was a very old pot. And it was in better shape when I returned it.” Our heroes deny that there is such information, and it isn’t really convincing information, and even if it is convincing we shouldn’t be mean to the mullahs.

This is the pattern that led us straight to 9/11. For that matter, it got us to Pearl Harbor and to Khobar Towers, and to the Beirut bombings of our embassy and the Marine barracks. It is a pattern of denial and self-deception, driven by an absolute conviction that the truth must not be passed on to people whose view of the world differs from your own. And so our kids get blown up in Iraq, while the Bushes, Rices, Rumsfelds, Cambones, Tenets, Negropontes, and their cohorts deny that we know who’s doing it. Deputy Secretary of State Burns, the architect of our failed Middle East mission, goes to Israel to thump his chest and talk about getting tough with Iran, meaning tough talk and a few symbolic gestures, certainly not regime change. Such people talk about “insurgency” as if the shattered remnants of Saddam’s ruined state were capable of mounting the terror war we face, when common sense points in the direction of professional intelligence services in Tehran and Damascus.

We are not alone in this suicidal self-deception. Our friends across the water, those tough-minded Englishmen who have recently decided to abolish the Royal Navy for all intents and purposes, have been frenetically seducing us into one diplomat failure after another with regard to Iran for many years now. It is no surprise, then, that the London Times yesterday quoted British officials are denying there is a “smoking gun” to show Iranian support for terrorists in Iraq. I think the unnamed officials who are saying that are either out of the intelligence loop or lying. American intelligence has known for at least a year and a half that the frightful shaped charges that have killed and maimed so many American soldiers were manufactured in Iran — they traced the serial numbers back to the Iranian manufacturer — and it is inconceivable that we would have failed to share that fact with our British allies.

I can well imagine the debates now raging inside the Bush administration over what is apparently a substantial trove of devastating information about Iranian activities in Iraq, and perhaps also Afghanistan. American officials long opposed to any serious challenge to Iran pronounced the information “a bombshell,” and some of them now say they have changed their minds about going after the mullahs. So those who still want to take the diplomatic route, and continue to appease Tehran, must set up a series of obstacles: first try to keep the intelligence bottled up; if that fails, discredit it; and if all else fails join the “war is not the answer” crowd, whose credibility rests on the hope that nobody in America has read any history.

This debate has its drama, to be sure. But it is not the dramatic event I had imagined, and its outcome is still in doubt. We are not there yet; if we were, we’d have a national commitment to regime change in Damascus and Tehran. We are in the bowels of the bureaucracy, not on the high slopes of strategic vision and inspirational leadership. But that’s our world.

[crosslink]

I think we ARE about to hit Iran - that, I believe is the real reason for the 20K - 40K surge of troops - to blunt the inevitable backlash from Iran.
Also the Naval build up is not just for show,


I agree, We have 4 carrier groups steaming to the gulf. This air power is not needed for our current operations.

[Graymatter]

I feel much as you do, Cobra. Maybe worse. IMO this country is fu nearly bar, and there are about two ways to turn things around. (Citizen power of the purse being the milder, revolution the other.) Neither of which is at all likely to happen. Too many neutered sheeple, not enough patriots. I won't live to see it, but my grandchildren will know a dark age world without America.

[Shaun_MD]

Let me get flamed too because I feel the exact same way

[Psalm 73]

"This air power is not needed for our current operations."

It is a huge monetary investment to divert 4 carrier groups into that area - let alone something strategically risky - you don't do that just for show.
And we don't even know what other assets have been brought into theater - they shuffle aircraft from base to base so nobody can keep track of what is where - I'm at a large base in the pacific - lots of activity, just don't know what's coming and what's going and from and to where.

[guitfiddlist]

They have waged war against us for 28 years, and we are only now beginning to contemplate the possibility of a response.

Imagine the frustration of Ahmadenijad. He has tried in every way, shape and form to get the US to attack Iran preemptively, thereby outraging the entire Muslim world into declaring Global jihad on the West - all part of the grand return strategy of the 12th Imam, according to Ahmadenijad's "don't-wait-for-it;-make-Armageddon-happen" activist Shiite sect. He knows he can't overtly attack the West first, since even die-hard readers of "Jihad Weekly" and apologists in the western MSM wouldn't be able to spin it as anything other than the first blow thrown, and Iran would therefore not be be able to play the victim and instigate global jihad.

Standing in his way to jihad is primarily President Bush - who just won't take the bait yet. I think Bush is sincere in his desire to avoid a war with Iran, but knows that he is being manipulated by Ahmadenijad into a position where he will soon have no choice but to overtly attack Iran. Hence, the positioning of aircraft carriers and other assets in the region.

The other obstacles to Ahmadenijad's plan are cowardly or traitorous western "leaders" that believe that avoidance of war is the End and Only, no matter what the cost. If Ahmadenijad has anything to say to these people, it might be "I appreciate your treasonous behavior on my behalf, but you are not helping matters."

So the strange game continues, with Ahmadenijad coming out with every provocation he can think of short of sending a gilded invitation to the OK corral. Supplying insurgents and weaponry in Iraq, threatening to close off the Hormuz strait, developing nuclear weapons and long range delivery vehicles, and promising to wipe out Israel, Europe and the US within nanoseconds of achieving nuclear capability. What else can a poor Twelver-Jihadist do?

It may be that Ahmadenihad's troubles at home are from the non-Twelver Imams who are no matter desirous of all-out war than the West is, but enjoy the theatrics of Ahmadenijad taunting the West as long as it comes short of instigating a real war with the US, which would be disastrous for them, but nirvana for Ahmadenijad. Now that a real war may be coming down, they may not be so fond of his one-man clown act anymore.

So the pressure mounts on both sides. Can Ahmadenihad keep power long enough to provoke a direct western attack? And can Bush avoid launching such an attack long enough for Iran to do something so far over the top that even our traitorous 'Rats couldn't justify it?

Meanwhile, Israel must be racing its jet engines and fingering triggers, Olmert or not. They know that they will be the first to pay the price of any appeasement or further delay - which would effectively amount to the former.

As for us, I think we should accept the invitation without further delay, as we will not be able to avoid it in the future anyway. Ahmadenijad's determination to fight is not subject to reason, other than his quite logical reasoning and strategy - flowing as it is from a crackpot jihadisdt ideology.

This surge may be the acceptance of the invitation. Perhaps the stage calls have already gone out to all players, who are now busy playing out their parts. Iran and Syria start Iraqi civil war - we surge troops to quell, Iran and Syria massively step up the flow of weapons and insurgents to both sides, US is compelled to attack support networks straddling the borders. Iran then declares itself an innocent victim of an unprovoked act of aggression and attacks US forces in the Gulf, cuts off oil flows, calls for global terrorist attacks, and Presto - we have ourselves a global jihad.

We don't really have a choice, no matter what the appeasers say. The war is coming sooner or later, and it might be better that we wage it before our sissified societies decay any further.

[crosslink]

I have friends in country who all went dark last week. It could be normal operations, too soon to know.

[bert]

History is a process, not an event. Everything doesn't happen in carefully synchronized, manageable events.

The process is underway and is effective. Patience is required to prevail.

[MNJohnnie]

This from the clown who has been screaming mindlessly for years against the War in Iraq and how we should NOT use "the military option" against Iran?

Face it, Michael Ledeen is just a mindless whiner. What ever is going on he whines. He has nothing to add to the political debate at all. His whole position on any issue is simple to know in advance. He is against what ever the USA is doing.

[MNJohnnie]

Faster please?

From the same Ledeen who spent the last 3 years screaming endlessly against the war in Iraq and how the we did NOT need to use a Military Option against Iran???

The True Believers may simply tune out all inconvenient truths but a big part of the reason of the paralyzing in DC is BECAUSE people like Ledeen simply mindlessly scream against WHATEVER DC is doing.

[Earthdweller]

"That is about the most one can say on behalf of our feckless national-security team, whose leaders are trying to be a little bit pregnant instead of trying to win this thing."

No, it's actually that we run a tight rope between letting the rulers of the Islamic states know we are deadly tough without creating too much fear in the masses of such states.

If this was 700 years ago when the population of extremists was much smaller there may have been a chance to bring about a quick decisive change by overwhelming force without caring what the greater masses of Muslims think. But as it stands, they are set to surpass the population of all other peoples in the planet within a few decades.

It's the numbers stupid.

That said, change will be slow. Nobody likes slow. Embrace the suck.

[jackv]

I think most fools believe if they don't see it happening it is not being done. The usual Bush bashers come out that he's not doing anything. I think he knows what he's doing. Those battleships and increased troops aren't for nothing. Some things require a little preparation. sheesh!

[hinckley buzzard]

No, it's actually that we run a tight rope between letting the rulers of the Islamic states know we are deadly tough...

I understand your comment but--do you think the rulers of the Islamic states are acting as if they think we are deadly tough? IMO they are acting as if they think they've got us licked. And I watch actions more than I listen to words. Syria and Iran both continue to violate Iraq's borders, with impunity. Iran supplies deadly weapons to Iraq's insurgents, with impunity.

Undoubtedly, these worldly islamic leaders are also aware that we can't even agree on policing our own borders. We put NG troops out there and then don't let them fire on armed intruders. How tough can we be? They watch the democrats win elections and fall all over themselves to see who can be most anti-war, who can promise to give up sooner.

And China watches all this unfold, and smiles.

[PatrickF4]

It seems there are some who want to push the US and Israel into a war with Iran. I think that some of them are the same ones who pushed us into Iraq. Well, we lost in Iraq when the results didn't measure up to the expectations of those who sold us on the war, when we did nothing to insure victory, and when the media was unchallenged by by the administration in racking up "body counts."

I don't suppose one would think that the Cold War was one long appeasement of the Soviet Union (Jimmy Carter excluded). The diplomatic route doesn't have to mean appeasement, although for those thirsty for war, that's what it is.

"Bomb them back to the stone age", give them a taste of democracy, and we'll all sleep better at night knowing that we were not feckless in our efforts to fight off the bogeyman of Islamic Jihadism.

[familyop]

"This from the clown who has been screaming mindlessly for years against the War in Iraq and how we should NOT use "the military option" against Iran?
Face it, Michael Ledeen is just a mindless whiner. What ever is going on he whines. He has nothing to add to the political debate at all. His whole position on any issue is simple to know in advance. He is against what ever the USA is doing."

The Surge and its Critics
Getting Syrious.

NRO
By Michael Ledeen
09JAN07

Excerpt:

I do not agree with their suggestion we should threaten withdrawal. That’s already happened; Pelosi, Reid, and Murtha do it every day. I have no doubt the Iraqis and everyone else in the region expect us to leave sooner rather than later. What else could they think? Saying it one more time weakens our influence even further, whereas demonstrating a will to win this war is the best, indeed the only way to gain prestige and strength in the eyes of the people and their leaders.

[familyop]

"It seems there are some who want to push the US and Israel into a war with Iran. I think that some of them are the same ones who pushed us into Iraq.
'Bomb them back to the stone age', give them a taste of democracy, and we'll all sleep better at night knowing that we were not feckless in our efforts to fight off the bogeyman of Islamic Jihadism."

Yes, it's us evil neo-cons. Just ask Gibson, Irving, Ahmadinejad or Buchanan.

[Porterville]

I say let Tehran destroy france, then help it to continue to destroy france. Then destroy Tehran and give it to the Jews.

[PatrickF4]

This time, the neo-con propaganda may be drowned out by the voices of sanity. Just say "Iraq" and, whatever the connection, the politicians will run for cover. The neo-cons will be "hoisted by their own petard" up the mizzen mast of the good ship New World Order.

[Grampa Dave]

If Tehran Only Knew, what will happen if there is no regime change in Iran.:

"In America, we lie for tactical reasons, stating over and over that military action against Iran is unlikely. However in Iran, out of ignorance, they reiterate that American military action against their country is impossible because the US is "unable" to do so!

We say and hope our analysis is wrong. A possible military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities is in the final stages. Unless a political miracle occurs that revives the halted dialog between Iran and the international community, Iran and its neighboring countries should not be surprised by a scenario that includes American military action. "

Just maybe, President Bush is purposely allowing the media and the left to spout their garbage in order to create the illusion that we are completely incapable of taking any action against Iran. It would come as a complete surprise if we did take action.

Iranian Map: Before we unleash the real hell on earth shown below for the Iranian Whackjobs:

Then, we show the suicidal Islamofascist serial killers in charge of Iran, what real nuclear weapons will do.

Hey, what is causing all those bright lights and loud noises!

Iranian Map: After the above!

The nuclear bomb used at Hiroshima was puny compared to what we have ready for the Islamofascist serial killers in Iran:

Atomic blast in Hiroshima

An atomic blast demolished the centre of Hiroshima, Japan, on August 6,1945. Japan agreed to surrender after a second atomic bomb was dropped on Nagasaki on August 9.

Summary of US military buildup in the Persian Gulf area since the first of the year:

Over the past month, the U.S. Navy has given orders to the U.S.S. John Stennis carrier battle group, based in Bremerton, WA, to steam toward the Persian Gulf, where it will join the U.S.S. Dwight D. Eisenhower.

Navy sources say the Pentagon is getting ready to announce the dispatch of a third carrier battle group – the U.S.S. Ronald Reagan – from San Diego. That will make three carrier battle groups in the region starting at around the end of January.

Oh, and along with them is the amphibious assault group led by the U.S.S. Boxer, which can land several thousand U.S. Marines to seize and destroy strategic sites near the coast at a moment’s notice. (Busheir? Bandar Abbas? Jask? The three Persian Gulf islands Iran seized from the UAE in the 1990s and has since fortified to harass Gulf shipping? Your pick).

Other recent US Naval and Marine Corp additions to handle/control/kill the Iranian Serial Killers:

Bataan Transits Suez Canal, Enters U.S. 5th Fleet Story Number: NNS070130-14 Release Date: 1/30/2007 7:00:00 PM

By Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class (SW) Joanne De Vera, Commander, U.S. Naval Forces Central Command/ Commander, U.S. 5th Fleet Public Affairs

USS BATAAN, At Sea (NNS) -- The multipurpose amphibious assault ship USS Bataan (LHD 5) and the Sailors and Marines of the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) successfully transited the Suez Canal on Jan. 30 and entered the U.S. 5th Fleet area of operations.

While in the region, the Bataan Expeditionary Strike Group (ESG) will conduct maritime security operations (MSO).

MSO help set the conditions for security and stability in the maritime environment, as well as complement the counter-terrorism and security efforts of regional nations. These operations deny international terrorists use of the maritime environment as a venue for attack or to transport personnel, weapons or other material.

U.S. 5th Fleet’s area of operations encompasses 2.5 million square miles of water and includes the Persian Gulf, Arabian Sea, Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, Gulf of Oman and parts of the Indian Ocean.

“We’ll continue our role as the surface warfare commander and the air defense commander for the Bataan Expeditionary Strike Group,” said Cmdr. Jon Carriglitto, Bataan’s operations officer. “Together with the MEU, we bring the ability to insert a quick, capable amphibious force where it’s needed.”

While in theater, approximately 6,000 U.S. Sailors and Marines assigned to the ESG and the 26th MEU provide the combatant commander a versatile sea-based force that can be tailored to a variety of missions. The Bataan ESG has the capabilities to support MSO, combat operations and humanitarian assistance/disaster relief.

“Bataan ESG’s presence in the U.S. 5th Fleet will require the crew to conduct what it does best: well deck and flight deck operations,” said Carriglitto. “We’ll be conducting varsity-level operations, but much of it falls right in line with our ongoing training, so I know we’re ready to meet those challenges.”

Bataan, commanded by Capt. David Hulse, left its homeport of Norfolk on Jan. 4 for a regularly-scheduled deployment as the flagship of the Bataan ESG. The ESG is comprised of the Bataan Strike Group, commanded by Commodore Donna Looney, commander, Bataan Strike Group/Amphibious Squadron 2, and the 26th MEU based out of Camp Lejeune, N.C., commanded by Col. Gregg Sturdevant.

In addition to Bataan, the strike group consists of USS Shreveport (LPD 12), USS Oak Hill (LSD 51), USS Vella Gulf (CG 72), USS Nitze (DDG 94), USS Underwood (FFG 36), and USS Scranton (SSN 756).

For related news, visit the Commander, U.S. Naval Forces Central Command/Commander, U.S. 5th Fleet Navy NewsStand page at www.news.navy.mil/local/cusnc/.

"Due to rapidly developing events in Somalia, U.S. Central Command has tasked USS Dwight D. Eisenhower to join USS Bunker Hill, USS Ramage, USS Anzio and USS Ashland to support ongoing maritime security operations off the coast of Somalia," said Navy Lt. Cmdr. Charlie Brown, a spokesman for 5th Fleet in Bahrain.

More Iranian related news:

01.31.07

Pentagon official tells LA Times aggressive new tactics designed to deter Iranian assistance to Iraqi militants may include more forceful patrols by fighter planes along Iran-Iraq border to counter smuggling of bomb supplies from Islamic Republic; ‘For every improvised explosive device that goes off in Iraq, a bomb should go off in Iran,’ retired Air Force lieutenant general says.

ynet.news.com

IRAN CLOCK IS TICKING

Thursday, February 01, 2007 - FreeMarketNews.com

LINKED NEWS ANALYSIS

Military and intelligence sources continue to tell me that preparations are advancing for a war with Iran starting possibly as early as mid-to-late February. The sources offer some differences of opinion over whether Bush might cite a provocation from Iran or whether Israel will take the lead in launching air strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities.

-Consortiumnews.com

8 posted on 02/01/2007 4:24:51 PM PST by M. Espinola (Freedom is Never Free)

A Quote from: The Dogs of War - Lessons of the 20th Century. By Victor Davis Hanson, (author most recently of Carnage and Culture: Landmark Battles in the Rise of Western Power):

“"I would not wish to fight the United States - either militarily, politically, or culturally. For every threat, our history teaches us that Americans offer not just a rejoinder, but the specter of a devastating answer of a magnitude almost inconceivable to those now chanting and threatening in the streets of the Middle East.

Do they have any idea of what sort of dangerous people we really are? Do they understand the history of the names of those ships now off their coasts, like the USS Peleliu or Enterprise, or the pedigree of the 82nd or 101st Airborne?"

In spite of all the reality above, the insane Islamofascist serial killers in charge of Iran are going ahead with naval war games in the Persian Gulf.

Iranian navy, air forces to launch wargames in Persian Gulf, Oman Sea IRNA / Reuters ^

Posted on 02/06/2007 10:20:34 AM PST by maquiladora

Missile units of the air and naval forces of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) will begin a specialized wargame in southern and central parts of Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman from Wednesday.

The announcement follows mounting tension with the United States, which has said it will step up pressure on Iran. This has included despatching a second aircraft carrier to the Gulf, a major shipping lane for oil exports.

The exercises will be staged on Wednesday and Thursday by the missile units of the Guards' naval and air forces, the semi-official Fars news agency reported, citing a Guards source.

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[M. Espinola]